Does this stat bode ill for the 9ers?

sdaddy101269 · 2012-01-10T15:55:22-08:00

This article states some things that really worry me if stats are an indication of losing. The article states that of the last 15 teams that had the fewest turnovers in a season only 1 made it to the SB and: "11 teams that have made the list since 2004; the same year illegal contact was reinforced. Our top six teams are from 2008 to this season, so it has become more common for teams to have fewer turnovers in just the last few years. But What About Those Playoff Results?In the regular season, these 15 teams compiled a 176-64 (.733) record. In the playoffs, they are just 7-10 (.412). Excluding the 1990 Giants, who truly are from a different era of football, they are 4-10 (.286), and that doesn't include the two teams that did not make the playoffs at all. Since 2008, the lowest turnover teams are 0-5 in the playoffs. Out of the 11 teams with playoff results, a shocking seven of them went one and done. To make matters worse, six of those seven teams were playing at home. Only the 2009 Packers were playing on the road, at Arizona, and their season ended with a turnover in overtime on just the second defensive touchdown in OT playoff history. http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5207_Turnover_triumph_a_double-edged_sword_for_49ers.html I hope to god we break the trend!!!!!!

Jan 10, 2012 at 3:56 PM

jreff22
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meh

Jan 10, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Sanfran_chrisco
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Jan 10, 2012 at 4:00 PM

49erfaninPA
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There is always some statistic to prove whatever point the writer is trying to make.

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:00 PM

HessianDud
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those teams weren't 49ers.

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:03 PM

sdaddy101269
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Originally posted by 49erfaninPA:
There is always some statistic to prove whatever point the writer is trying to make.

I suppose, but conventional football wisdom says teams that take care of the ball win games. I'm curious as to why teams that do so well in the regular season at this stat have done so bad come playoff time?

[ Edited by sdaddy101269 on Jan 10, 2012 at 4:03 PM ]

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Smalls
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eh, just some stat

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:12 PM

80849er4life
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In Jim I trust.....

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:15 PM

HessianDud
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those teams also didn't have Patrick Willis.

our defense won't let us lose.

we'll win the turnover battle, once again.

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:17 PM

kodiak9er
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Originally posted by sdaddy101269:

Originally posted by 49erfaninPA:
There is always some statistic to prove whatever point the writer is trying to make.

I suppose, but conventional football wisdom says teams that take care of the ball win games. I'm curious as to why teams that do so well in the regular season at this stat have done so bad come playoff time?

i think it is bigger to look at the turnover ratio. Niners led the league, and was a huge component to us winning i.e. defense creates short field and more offensive possessions with the turnovers we create. if the defense cant force turnovers in the playoffs, our offense has longer fields to work with having to drive down and score. also the defense getting more 3 and outs allowing more offensive drives for us will be key to our success... we have to stop the saints offense!

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:17 PM

#10

Marvin49
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I'd like to see what the stats are for teams with a turnover DIFFERENTIAL of over +20 or +25.

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:20 PM

#11

kodiak9er
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Originally posted by Marvin49:
I'd like to see what the stats are for teams with a turnover DIFFERENTIAL of over +20 or +25.

thats what im sayin

[ Edited by kodiak9er on Jan 10, 2012 at 4:20 PM ]

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:22 PM

#12

SonocoNinerFan
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Only if we lose . . .

Jan 10, 2012 at 4:50 PM

#13

Marvin49
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1 WAS 1983 14-2 +43 (Lost SB)
2 CLE 1946 12-2 +33 (Won their version of Championship)
3 BAL 1958 9-3 +30 (Won thier version of Championship)
4 CHI 1963 11-1-2 +29 (Won their version of Championship)
5 CLE 1960 8-3-1 +28 (Didn't make playoffs!?!)
6 NWE 2010 14-2 +28 (Lost in Divisional Round)
7 BAL 1959 9-3 +26 (Won their version of Championship)
8 GNB 1941 10-1 +26 (Lost in Playoffs)
9 KAN 1990 11-5 +26 (Lost in Wild Card round)
10 GNB 1943 7-2-1 +25 (Didn't make playoffs)
11 NYG 1997 10-5-1 +25 (Lost in Wild Card Round)
12 CIN 2005 11-5 +24 (Lost in Wild Card round)
13 CLE 1966 9-5 +24 (Didn't make playoffs)
14 GNB 1965 10-3-1 +24 (Won NFL Championship)
15 GNB 2009 11-5 +24 (Lost in Wild Card round)
16 NYG 1950 10-2 +24 (Lost in Playoffs)
17 PHI 1989 11-5 +24 (Lost in Wild Card Round)
18 SDG 1961 12-2 +24 (Lost AFL Championship)
19 SDG 2007 11-5 +24 (Lost AFC Championship)
20 SEA 1984 12-4 +24 (Lost in Divisional round)

Not too encouraging. I wanna look up TO Diff leaders every year. A number of pre-merger Championships, bu no Super Bowls.

[ Edited by Marvin49 on Jan 10, 2012 at 4:55 PM ]

Jan 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

#14

Pick6
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Thats taking into account 1 stat... what does one stat alone mean? If that is the ONLY thing that you do well thats one thing... but not only do the niners NOT turn the ball over, but they get turnovers... and they have a great defense and special teams.

I was looking at the OFFENSE VS DEFENSE Super Bowl theory earlier today and here is something more encouraging. SB winners on average rank 8th in total DEF and 10th in total OFF. The team with a higher ranking DEF is 19-9 in the last 28 Super Bowls.

Look up the top Passing offenses in NFL history and see how they did in the Super Bowl... my guess is about as well as the top team in TO. I think it goes back to being good in one area... if that one area fails you just once, your doomed... the 9ers fortunately are probably the most balanced TEAM in the playoffs.