If we get the #2 (or #1) seed, we should be considered the favorites in the NFC

nickbradley · 2011-12-21T08:28:05-08:00

Based on our style of play and Green Bay's mounting injuries, I think we would only be a 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 point road dog in Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. Furthermore, I expect us to beat the Saints on Grass. If we end up with #3 seed, things will look very different. Here is how I can see things shaping up if we get the #2 seed. This is based on Footballoutsiders.com playoff odds. percentages are odds of earning that seed http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds NFC 1 - Green Bay (99%) 2 - San Francisco (57%) 3 - New Orleans 4 - Dallas (58%) 5 - Atlanta (57.5%) 6 - Detroit (54%) * Atlanta has a 99% chance of making the playoffs, Detroit 85%. Atlanta can still win their division. Seattle must win out and Detroit must lose out -- it can happen but it's unlikely. Arizona needs Atlanta to lose out or get into some crazy common opponent stuff. Wild Car round: ATL@DAL - I give the edge to Atlanta based on strength of schedule and relative performance. Using Footballoutsiders' Total DVOA. With Totaly DVOA, Atlanta is 16.5% and Dallas is 9%. Weighted for "hotness", ATL is 21.6% and DAL is 8.6%. Atlanta is also far more consistent. DET@NO - we saw how this one went down earlier in the year. Expect a repeat. Divisional Round NO@SF - 49ers win this one. Using DVOA again, we edge out NO 21%-18% and are basically tied with weighted DVOA. However, They're a different team on grass. SHOCKINGLY, the Saints have only played FIVE GAMES outdoors this year and lost two of them -- games were against GB, TB, CAR, JAC, TEN. They should have lost against Carolina and Tennessee. ATL@GB - Atlanta COULD win this one and we'd play ATL in SF at home for the Championship game. But I'll go with Green Bay. NFC Championship - SF@GB. 49ers Win. Green Bay is terrible against the run, allowing 4.7 YPC -- the only reason YPG is decent is because other teams play from behind -- according to FO, their front seven is really, really bad against the run. So, we will be able to get the ground game going and control the tempo for a "W". Also, their offensive line is really banged up so we should be able to get a lot of pressure on Rodgers. 49ers - NFC Champs. Now on to the AFC 1. NE (83%) 2. *PIT 3. HOU 4. DEN (84%) 5. BAL 6. NYJ or CIN * I picked PIT to win the AFC North because of their weak, weak remaining schedule of STL and @CLE. The Ravens have to play Cincinnati in Cincinnati week 17, and the Bengals will be scratching and clawing for the 6-seed. If I had to pick right now, I think Cincy gets the 6 seed by beating Arizona and Baltimore. The Jets have to play the Giants and then go down and play a Miami team that NOBODY wants to play. The Titans still have a shot. WC Round: BAL@DEN - The Ravens brutal front seven shuts down Tebow and the Broncos running game. CIN@HOU - This is a tough one, but I say that the Texans win this one 10-9 with their Defense Divisional Round HOU@PIT - Steelers roll BAL@NE - Tough one, but I'll got with the Ravens AFC Championship Game - BAL@PIT. Chances of beating a rival 3x in a single season is very low. Steelers win Super Bowl XLVI - San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. We won the first match-up, but we'll see what happens on neutral ground with a healthy Big Ben. Thoughts?

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Dec 21, 2011 at 8:30 PM

#16

carl
Veteran
Posts: 3,754

Originally posted by okdkid:
Absolutely. The Packers and Saints strength of schedule is absolutley atrocious. They simply have not been tested with consistency.

They are #31 and #32 in the entire NFL for strength of schedule.

Keep in mind that the Packers are 13-1 right? So that's going to impact the strength of schedule statistics...
Let me put it this way, if you take out the Packers W/L numbers, what's the strength of schedule look like? Same goes for the Colts and Rams.

I agree that they haven't really played many tough teams, but they have played playoff teams and won those games. They've also only lost 1 game, and that was after they had more-or-less locked in home field advantage through the playoffs.

Dec 21, 2011 at 8:36 PM

#17

skeetskeet
Veteran
Posts: 16,483

We lose to the cardinals and we suck again!

We beat the steelers and now we are a lock to win the super bowl!

The difference a week makes lol

[ Edited by skeetskeet on Dec 21, 2011 at 8:37 PM ]

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