Karma's Post-Draft Roster Breakdown

i dont consider boone or adams a lock. boone has struggled to make the roster and get playing time. and adams is a singeltary guy. i know baalke drafted him but hes a 7th round pick, so it wont hurt the pockets to let him go. espically with us drafting 3 DBs.

Thanks for your work.

I find it difficult to break down our roster. It is difficult to know how the current coaching staff and front office view the players on the roster. There is a good chance, that the current staff is not entirely happy with the roster--that they think we are two or years away from being a play-off quality team.

This year's draft indicates that the team is looking farther down the road than next year. If this is true, we could see major changes on the roster.

In looking at this roster and the draft, we should remember that Baalke used to be the defensive line/strength and conditioning coach at South Dakota State University. He helped two SDSU players get drafted; former Pro Bowl guard Adam Timmerman and current NFL kicker Adam Vinatieri. .

My guess is that Baalke has an affinity for small school players.

Defensive Line

Justin Smith and Isaac Sopoaga are our starting defensive ends.

We need to recognize and praise Justin Smith. He is an incredible football player. But he is getting old. Hopefully, for the sake of the team, he will be able to play for at least two more years.

Next year, we will need to draft an DE.

We did not not draft a nose tackle, which was my major disappointment with this draft. Perhaps, this mean that Trent Baalke is more than willing to pay good money for Aubrayo Franklin. And not drafting a nose tackle might indicate that the current brain trust feels quite comfortable with the potential of Ricky Jean Francois.

I think the team should sign Franklin and pick-up an UDFA nose tackle. Either Ian Williams from Norte Dame or Anthony Gray from Southern Miss is the logical choice. I think RJF has a bright future at DE.

Line Backers

On the inside we will have Patrick Willis and,hopefully, Takeo Spikes. The back-ups will be Navarro Bowman and Scott McKillop.

Our outside linebackers are harder to figure out. Aldon Smith will be a starter. The question is who will pair with him on the outside. I would like to Manny Lawson re-signed. I think, or maybe it is hope, that Fangio can do much better with Manny Lawson than the previous staffs.

Travis LaBoy has the skill set and the right attitude, but he has had problems with injuries. Ahmad Brooks needs to take the next step. Parys Haralson has not been very productive since he got his new contract. To keep his job, Haralson has to beat out Ahmad Brooks and Travis LaBoy. I do not think he will.

On the outside, we will end up with Aldon Smith, Manny Lawson, Travis LaBoy and Ahmad Brooks.

Corner Back

I highly doubt that Clements will be on the team. I do not think that he is willing to restructure his contract. I am also not sure that team has much interest in keeping him. From what I saw last year (and I understand my view is limited), Clements did not play with much discipline--and got burned way too often. One way or the other, I think Clements is gone.

I think we end up with Shawntae Spencer at one spot and either Tarell Brown or a free agent at the other spot. Chris Culliver, who we drafted this year, will have at least one year to become a functional corner.

Safety

Do we re-sign Dashon Goldson? Does Goldson want to stay?

I have no clear idea what Goldson wants, but my sense is that given the down year he had last year, he will be willing to stay for a good, not a great, contract.

If the new defensive coordinator. Vic Fangio, or the new secondary coach, Ed Donatell, feel that Goldson does not have the right intangibles, Goldson is gone.

If they feel that they can coach him up, and if Goldson wants to stay, he stays.

I think that Taylor Mays was a Singletary pick and perhaps one of points of conflict between Baalke and the ex-coach. Based upon his play last year, he needs serious coaching. His willingness to accept that coaching is going to be critical. At the end of the day, Mays might end up being traded. I know that this is a harsh take on the young man--and I hope it is not accurate.

My guess is we end up with Dashon Goldson and Reggie Smith as starters.

Running Back

Brian Westbrook is gone and I think that is a shame. He is a consummate pro and the way he was used last year was basically an insult.

Gore is clearly the starter, but he will have to share reps this year. My bet is that he will be sharing those reps primarily with Kendall Hunter, not Anthony Dixon. In fact, I would rank the running backs thus: Frank Gore and then Kendall Hunter. Anthony Dixon and Xavier Omon will fight it out for the last spot. Dixon should win, but Oman will put up a better fight than most people would think.

Full Back

Tom Rathman is going to turn Bruce Miller into a good full back. Mr. Miller has the right mind set and can catch the ball. We will keep one full back. Moran Norris has had a good run, but does not have the skill set required in the West Coast Offense.

Offensive Line

David Baas will be, and has to be, re-signed. Chilo Rachal gets one more year. The starting line is pretty straight forward: Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, David Baas, Mike Iupati and Chilo Rachel. Alex Boone will be the primary back-up at tackle. We might see a youth movement on the offensive line next year. If the young men, do well, Barry Sims and Adam Snyder will lose their jobs.

Wide Receivers

Next year, Crabtree and Josh Morgan will be our starters.

First and foremost, and Michael Crabtree needs to understand this, Jim Harbaugh has no time for divas. Crabtree must understand that being the tenth pick in the draft is not a license to avoid the preseason. He must improve his route running and if the ball hits his hands, he has to catch it--that is what good receivers do.

Crabtree could become a very good receiver, but I think he one year, and only one year, to prove he is not a diva.

Unlike Crabtree, Josh Morgan, a sixth round pick, has shown the willingness to work hard to improve his craft. I predict that he will continue to improve. He and Harbaugh are going to get along fine for a long time.

Kyle Williams and Ronald Johnson should make the squad.

Ted Ginn Jr. has not done enough as a wide receiver and this last draft lowered his value as a return man. I think he is gone.

Dominique Zeigler does well when he plays but he has had too many injuries. I like Dominique and hope that he can stay healthy. But, he is on the bubble, along with Kevin Jurovich and Lance Long. The team only has room for one of these guys. The deciding factor will be special teams play.


Anyway, this is my take on our roster.

Gibson a lock I'm not sure about that.

Mays and Reggie will be the starters.

Thanks for the break down. Does anyone know the latest on Adams? I remember he suffered a pretty significant injury last season.

I also like the idea of getting Byham some reps at FB

My best Roster 53 forecast, at this point:

QB-3: Smith, Kaepernick, TBD
RB-3: Gore, Dixon, Hunter (Westbrook, Omon gone)
FB-2: Norris, Miller
TE-4: Davis, Walker, Bynam, TBD
OT-4: Staley, Davis, Sims, Boone
OG/C-5: Baas, Iupati, Rachal, Snyder, Kilgore (Heitmann, Wragge, Patrick gone)
WR-5: Crabtree, Morgan, Ginn, Johnson, Zeigler (Williams gone)

Offense Total: 25

NT-2: Franklin, Jean-Francois
DE-4: J. Smith, Sopoaga, McDonald, Tukuofu
MIKE-2: Willis, McKillop
TED-2: Spikes, Bowman
SAM-2: Lawson, Brooks
WILL-3: Smith, LeBoy, Gibson (Haralson gone)
CB-6: Clements, Spencer, Brown, Culliver, Brock, TBD (James gone)
SS-2: Mays, Taylor
FS-2: Smith, Jones (Goldson gone)

Defense Total: 25

LS-1: Jennings
P-1: Lee
PK-1: Nedney

Special Teams Total: 3

FA Signings:
QB Smith
C Baas
NT Franklin
DE McDonald
SAM Lawson
TED Spikes
QB TBD
TE TBD
CB TBD

Re-Structured:
CB Clements

FA Not Resigned:
FS Goldson
RB Westbrook

Injury Retirements:
C Heitmann
CB Adams

Noteworthy Cuts:
WILL Haralson
CB James
QB Carr

[ Edited by jimbagg on May 2, 2011 at 14:19:08 ]

very good

Originally posted by buck:
Thanks for your work.

I find it difficult to break down our roster. It is difficult to know how the current coaching staff and front office view the players on the roster. There is a good chance, that the current staff is not entirely happy with the roster--that they think we are two or years away from being a play-off quality team.

This year's draft indicates that the team is looking farther down the road than next year. If this is true, we could see major changes on the roster.

In looking at this roster and the draft, we should remember that Baalke used to be the defensive line/strength and conditioning coach at South Dakota State University. He helped two SDSU players get drafted; former Pro Bowl guard Adam Timmerman and current NFL kicker Adam Vinatieri. .

My guess is that Baalke has an affinity for small school players.

Great points to all...nice work buck! I agree too that this roster is being evaluated more on how players fit the overall philosophy and specific schemes for offense, defense and ST's. So the draft was a shock to us, I'm sure FA will be as well and cuts will be even more of a shock. Again, this coaching staff has continuity and most importantly, have a "vision" for what they want to accomplish and it's more complicated than we know; it's more than just needing a NT. They may see guys who we're tagging as a given to make the roster and contribute and the coaching staff is looking to replace them as quickly as possible b/c they don't fit.

Originally posted by buck:
Defensive Line

Justin Smith and Isaac Sopoaga are our starting defensive ends.

We need to recognize and praise Justin Smith. He is an incredible football player. But he is getting old. Hopefully, for the sake of the team, he will be able to play for at least two more years. Next year, we will need to draft an DE.

We did not not draft a nose tackle, which was my major disappointment with this draft. Perhaps, this mean that Trent Baalke is more than willing to pay good money for Aubrayo Franklin. And not drafting a nose tackle might indicate that the current brain trust feels quite comfortable with the potential of Ricky Jean Francois.

I think the team should sign Franklin and pick-up an UDFA nose tackle. Either Ian Williams from Norte Dame or Anthony Gray from Southern Miss is the logical choice. I think RJF has a bright future at DE.

I think the big shift here is that Fangio is going to want ALL of his linemen pushing up field and playing in the backfield as opposed to just Justin Smith and Franklin/Sopoaga holding the point for Willis, TKO and Lawson. I truly think this will benefit Sopoaga a lot (utilizing his athleticism) but I don't feel Franklin will be effective in this role. I also don't see Franklin having the ability to occupy and "clear out" the middle for stunts and blitzes upfield. I'm with everybody here...we needed a wide-bodied, low-center of gravity powerful fatty and we didn't get one...yet!

Originally posted by buck:
Line Backers

On the inside we will have Patrick Willis and, hopefully, Takeo Spikes. The back-ups will be Navarro Bowman and Scott McKillop.

Our outside linebackers are harder to figure out. Aldon Smith will be a starter. The question is who will pair with him on the outside. I would like to Manny Lawson re-signed. I think, or maybe it is hope, that Fangio can do much better with Manny Lawson than the previous staffs.

Travis LaBoy has the skill set and the right attitude, but he has had problems with injuries. Ahmad Brooks needs to take the next step. Parys Haralson has not been very productive since he got his new contract. To keep his job, Haralson has to beat out Ahmad Brooks and Travis LaBoy. I do not think he will.

On the outside, we will end up with Aldon Smith, Manny Lawson, Travis LaBoy and Ahmad Brooks.

I'm not sure what will happen here. TKO may be much too slow to stay with this position and we no longer need a "defensive fullback." TKO is much better playing inside the box and down hill and he's shown he can even provide a nice pass rush inside so we'll see. He has the intangibles but is a major liability in long coverages and even disrupting intermediate passing lanes and covering TE's and RB's in his zone. There seems to be an emphasis on "speed" in this draft.

The other monster shift, hands down, will be on creating pressure on the QB primarily using all four LBers through scheme and mismatches. This means Lawson is out. Having Lawson on one side would mean teams would only have to focus on Aldon Smith like how teams only focus on Justin Smith now. This year, I can see Aldon Smith on one side rotated in with Haralson (but not on predictable downs like in the past) and Brooks starting on the other. LaBoy would be a nice signing so he can do what he does best and that’s get after the QB. Gibson might be a pleasant surprise. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see much more pass rush from the ILB positions which would mean moving guys around, interchangeably like we see with the CB & Safety positions, esp. with the 3-4. The focus will be on freeing up your best pass rusher…to pass rush. That’s a novel concept here in SF! For all of our LBers the focus will be on stopping the run en route to rushing the QB with zone coverage a very very distant 3rd on responsibilities.

Originally posted by buck:
Corner Back

I highly doubt that Clements will be on the team. I do not think that he is willing to restructure his contract. I am also not sure that team has much interest in keeping him. From what I saw last year (and I understand my view is limited), Clements did not play with much discipline--and got burned way too often. One way or the other, I think Clements is gone.

I think we end up with Shawntae Spencer at one spot and either Tarell Brown or a free agent at the other spot. Chris Culliver, who we drafted this year, will have at least one year to become a functional corner.

I think we’ll see a big shift here too. The more physical, aggressive and dictating the CB up at the LOS, the better. This will b/c of the added emphasis on the pass rush meaning CB’s won’t have to cover as long or as often. This suits Clements/Spencer well and probably a new comer such as Culliver. With a good pass rush, those “chances” Clements took last year turn into positive plays for us more. I won’t be surprised to see a couple more FA’s brought in; maybe a big name but most likely up-and-coming CB’s that fit this prototype.

Originally posted by buck:
Safety

Do we re-sign Dashon Goldson? Does Goldson want to stay?

I have no clear idea what Goldson wants, but my sense is that given the down year he had last year, he will be willing to stay for a good, not a great, contract.

If the new defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, or the new secondary coach, Ed Donatell, feel that Goldson does not have the right intangibles, Goldson is gone.

If they feel that they can coach him up, and if Goldson wants to stay, he stays.

I think that Taylor Mays was a Singletary pick and perhaps one of points of conflict between Baalke and the ex-coach. Based upon his play last year, he needs serious coaching. His willingness to accept that coaching is going to be critical. At the end of the day, Mays might end up being traded. I know that this is a harsh take on the young man--and I hope it is not accurate.

My guess is we end up with Dashon Goldson and Reggie Smith as starters.

Interesting thought here buck! With the move to more speed via the draft, this is one of the big question marks for me. Typically the safeties are interchangeable. Baalke and Harbaugh obviously like prototypes, guys with great measurables and Taylor Mays is that to a T. I have a feeling Fangio wants to use his speed, athleticism more in the box, playing down hill and playing around the LOS. I have no clue what to expect from this position though!

Originally posted by mayo49:
Very nice, Karm. Thank you for your effort. Much appreciated.

Originally posted by prometheus:
I think we have undervalued Bruce Miller. I can see why they project him as fullback because he is pretty fast and he has raw power. He is the antithesis of Manny Lawson. I am surprised they don't view him more highly at his regular position as he looks as good as most of the top pass rushers. In the highlights I saw him smash thru blockers and I think Baalke likes him for that ability. I would feel sorry for whomever has to take on Iupati and Miller then tackle our backs. I think Iupati was a bit unique last year in that he often was by himself five yards ahead of anyone else because no one ever pushed him backwards. I can just imagine the sort of damage he could do this year. I was surprised that Aldon Smith looked human sized vs Iupati and Davis last year. The niners are going to have a monstrous line and having a nasty guy like Kilgore would be awesome.

On offense Byham= Miller,with Byham having a yrs experience . speed 4.8 to 4.8 same.. who wants it more??

Note to NCommand

Thanks for taking the time to read and comment on my post.

Sometimes I wonder if anyone really reads the stuff I write. You did thanks.

Originally posted by buck:
Note to NCommand

Thanks for taking the time to read and comment on my post.

Sometimes I wonder if anyone really reads the stuff I write. You did thanks.

My pleasure...always appreciate the time, thoughts and effort you put into your posts; I'm sure others do as well even if they don't respond!

EXCELLENT POST! This post and the smart feedback is the BEST one since the draft ended, Thanks!

One pont, I thought Miller was to transition not to FB but to ILB to eventually replace Spikes. Any thoughts?

Originally posted by tohara3:

Originally posted by mayo49:
Very nice, Karm. Thank you for your effort. Much appreciated.

Thank you to you both. I love this site for the posters that are thoughtful and insightful and I hope I can contribute to the intellectual property of this community. I may have been too harsh with my follow-up comment to "illiterate commentors". There are PLENTY of people here that appreciate informative discussions.

looks good to me