FO: 49ers as likely to win division as anyone else!

Nov 15, 2010 at 7:03 AM

49erKing
Veteran
Posts: 18,792

It would have been even better if Arizona could have won yesterday.

We better prepare well for the Bucs. Freeman and Williams might carve us a new one and don't forget Freeman's very mobile and will run for the marker if he sees daylight.

I think we can stop Blount we just have to make sure we hit him right around the line and hit him with good form.

Nov 15, 2010 at 7:06 AM

redmanc07
Veteran
Posts: 1,349

Originally posted by fortyninerglory:
It would have been even better if Arizona could have won yesterday.

We better prepare well for the Bucs. Freeman and Williams might carve us a new one and don't forget Freeman's very mobile and will run for the marker if he sees daylight.

I think we can stop Blount we just have to make sure we hit him right around the line and hit him with good form.

So you're saying we should hit em in the mouth?

Nov 15, 2010 at 7:08 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by fortyninerglory:
It would have been even better if Arizona could have won yesterday.

We better prepare well for the Bucs. Freeman and Williams might carve us a new one and don't forget Freeman's very mobile and will run for the marker if he sees daylight.

I think we can stop Blount we just have to make sure we hit him right around the line and hit him with good form.

I know -- I really thought ARI was going to win at home. It's also good to note that FO considers Arizona the worst team in the NFL -- tied with Carolina for that title...that's mainly due to awful QB play and a soft D.

We're fairly effective at containing the running game, especially power running games. Throw out the KC game, and we're giving up 85 yards a game rushing -- that's it!

Nov 15, 2010 at 7:15 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by redmanc07:
Originally posted by fortyninerglory:
It would have been even better if Arizona could have won yesterday.

We better prepare well for the Bucs. Freeman and Williams might carve us a new one and don't forget Freeman's very mobile and will run for the marker if he sees daylight.

I think we can stop Blount we just have to make sure we hit him right around the line and hit him with good form.

So you're saying we should hit em in the mouth?

Tampa's O-line and running ability is actually pretty poor, 30th in the NFL according to FO. But they are 15th in power-running. They also like to run it right up the middle like we like to -- they're 4th in the NFL in % of carries between the guards -- we're #1 in that category. Blount himself is a better back than their o-line

Nov 15, 2010 at 7:22 AM

PatrickJira411
Member
Posts: 4,117

Most important thing is we have found our Quarterback.

Nov 15, 2010 at 7:48 AM

Oakland-Niner
Member
Posts: 24,062

Originally posted by nickbradley:
These numbers were put together before this week's games, but football outsiders puts together probabilities for making the playoffs -- with a division win -- based on past performance and future schedule strength:

STL - 28% chance
SEA - 27.7% chance
SF - 25.2% chance
ARI - 19.2% chance

With this weekend's games, we have moved ahead of STL, Arizona has dropped off the map, and SEA moved ahead a bit.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

This is for all of you who want to mail the season in already. We are in a historically-bad divisional race, and an 8-8 or 7-9 team will win this thing. Before this week, the playoff predictor had mean wins projections of 7.1, 7.1, 6.6, and 6.5 for our division...based on 10,000 simulations. Finishing 5-2 wins this thing!

I don't know why you post this crap. Didn't MadDog already tell us the rest of the season is pointless?

Nov 15, 2010 at 8:00 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
These numbers were put together before this week's games, but football outsiders puts together probabilities for making the playoffs -- with a division win -- based on past performance and future schedule strength:

STL - 28% chance
SEA - 27.7% chance
SF - 25.2% chance
ARI - 19.2% chance

With this weekend's games, we have moved ahead of STL, Arizona has dropped off the map, and SEA moved ahead a bit.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

This is for all of you who want to mail the season in already. We are in a historically-bad divisional race, and an 8-8 or 7-9 team will win this thing. Before this week, the playoff predictor had mean wins projections of 7.1, 7.1, 6.6, and 6.5 for our division...based on 10,000 simulations. Finishing 5-2 wins this thing!

I don't know why you post this crap. Didn't MadDog already tell us the rest of the season is pointless?

Im surprised mods don't pull posts that discuss our chances of making the playoffs...just merge them all into a giant "HOPE" thread...

[ Edited by nickbradley on Nov 15, 2010 at 8:02 AM ]

Nov 15, 2010 at 8:02 AM

lamontb
Veteran
Posts: 33,164

didn't these folks pick the niners to be 6-10? Now with 3 wins they say we have the best possibility to win the division.

Nov 15, 2010 at 8:08 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by lamontb:
didn't these folks pick the niners to be 6-10? Now with 3 wins they say we have the best possibility to win the division.

Almost the best possibility...but right now they're projecting 7 wins for us (estimating the numbers that will come out on WED), so they're not that far off.

FO also uses weighted performance, so more recent performance count more than past performances. With that number, we are playing far better than anyone else in the West.

Its also interesting to note that they predict the Bears will fall apart - -they're 6-3 with a 13% chance of making the playoffs.