From a Quarterly Statistical Standpoint! article

with all the other cauious no one has been talking about how much our Special Teams still sucks. In KC They punted from their 29 and we got it inside our 20.

Field position is not helpful. Don't let a great play by Mays fool you have ziggy came up the middle untouched.

Classic singletary firing a coach without anyone in mind and settle for a coach who hasn't coached STs in half a decade.

Quote:
Here's a little secret for those of you who don't peruse the seedy underbelly of NFL stat sites. One robust phenomenon that FO has found in their research is that 3rd-down success has this uncanny knack for putting lipstick on a pig. What I mean is that bad offenses can look competent simply because they're able to convert 3rd downs successfully after being unsuccessful on 1st and 2nd down. Generally speaking, offenses that fit this profile are unable to duplicate their 3rd down success the following season, and so their makeup gets washed away to reveal the pig that's been there all along. Meet the 2009 and 2010 San Francisco 49ers' offense. As you can see, Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Raye, and company were in the bottom quartile of 2009 NFL pass offenses on 1st and 2nd down, but covered that up with above average success on 3rd down. Low and behold, they haven't been able to duplicate that - successful 75% less frequently!!! - and so 2009's Spider-Ham has been unmasked to reveal Peter Porker in 2010. Similarly, the 2009 unit was a Top 5 offense in terms of success rate on 3rd & Short, which masked a downright-ugly success rate on 2nd & Short; and, what do you know, they're successful over 50% less frequently on 3rd & Short this season while their success on 2nd & Short has remained essentially unchanged from its abysmal status in 2009.

Wow...

Originally posted by LambdaChi49:

Quote:
Here's a little secret for those of you who don't peruse the seedy underbelly of NFL stat sites. One robust phenomenon that FO has found in their research is that 3rd-down success has this uncanny knack for putting lipstick on a pig. What I mean is that bad offenses can look competent simply because they're able to convert 3rd downs successfully after being unsuccessful on 1st and 2nd down. Generally speaking, offenses that fit this profile are unable to duplicate their 3rd down success the following season, and so their makeup gets washed away to reveal the pig that's been there all along. Meet the 2009 and 2010 San Francisco 49ers' offense. As you can see, Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Raye, and company were in the bottom quartile of 2009 NFL pass offenses on 1st and 2nd down, but covered that up with above average success on 3rd down. Low and behold, they haven't been able to duplicate that - successful 75% less frequently!!! - and so 2009's Spider-Ham has been unmasked to reveal Peter Porker in 2010. Similarly, the 2009 unit was a Top 5 offense in terms of success rate on 3rd & Short, which masked a downright-ugly success rate on 2nd & Short; and, what do you know, they're successful over 50% less frequently on 3rd & Short this season while their success on 2nd & Short has remained essentially unchanged from its abysmal status in 2009.

Wow...

That's interesting but we weren't really a "good" offense last year either. So despite our above average 3rd down conversion rate, it didn't really make a difference in how we fared.

Except in our case, I don't buy the idea that if a high 3rd down success rate makes you a "masked" offense. If you're good on 3rd down, you're good, period. In fact looking back, our O last year wasn't bad in a lot of games so despite not appearing "good" to me, they weren't THAT bad in particular outings.

peter porker

Hahaha the title of this thread sounds like something from the Nolan era of NT!

Originally posted by global_nomad:
with all the other cauious no one has been talking about how much our Special Teams still sucks. In KC They punted from their 29 and we got it inside our 20.

Field position is not helpful. Don't let a great play by Mays fool you have ziggy came up the middle untouched.

Classic singletary firing a coach without anyone in mind and settle for a coach who hasn't coached STs in half a decade.

No doubt the special teams has been bad in areas. Punt return defense and punt returns have been the worst parts. How many times has Williams/others fielded a punt at the 10? We have given up a number of big returns. Also, KR have been horrid... many times we haven't even got to the 20 (around 17). We are actually averaging 16.1. I'd put Ginn on KR/PR... Williams didn't look like he did against Indy but that was pre season. He seemed slow (short strides) and indecisive. Adams has potential at PR but can't be dropping punts. A couple of times Andy Lee has had line drives and wish he would try to be more directional when facing good PRers even though I know he isn't that type of guy.

Edit: Also, wish Williams would be fielding punts at times instead of letting them bounce 20 yards backwardss.


Oh and that was 2,000 for me. I actually joined with another account in January of 2005. Switched to this account like a year later but I'd bet in almost 6 years I have about 2,400 posts. Doing it the hard way.

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by global_nomad:
with all the other cauious no one has been talking about how much our Special Teams still sucks. In KC They punted from their 29 and we got it inside our 20.

Field position is not helpful. Don't let a great play by Mays fool you have ziggy came up the middle untouched.

Classic singletary firing a coach without anyone in mind and settle for a coach who hasn't coached STs in half a decade.

No doubt the special teams has been bad in areas. Punt return defense and punt returns have been the worst parts. How many times has Williams/others fielded a punt at the 10? We have given up a number of big returns. Also, KR have been horrid... many times we haven't even got to the 20 (around 17). We are actually averaging 16.1. I'd put Ginn on KR/PR... Williams didn't look like he did against Indy but that was pre season. He seemed slow (short strides) and indecisive. Adams has potential at PR but can't be dropping punts. A couple of times Andy Lee has had line drives and wish he would try to be more directional when facing good PRers even though I know he isn't that type of guy.

Edit: Also, wish Williams would be fielding punts at times instead of letting them bounce 20 yards backwardss.


Oh and that was 2,000 for me. I actually joined with another account in January of 2005. Switched to this account like a year later but I'd bet in almost 6 years I have about 2,400 posts. Doing it the hard way.

Congrats on 2000!