Minimum Expectations

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by defenderDX:
I haven't seen a 49er playoff game in f**king 8 years. I don't give a s**t whether we "roar" into the playoffs or not, I just want that damn streak to END. Once we end that streak we can finally set our eyes on establishing ourselves as a consistent, playoff contending team each year once again!

As corny as this might sound I guess there is a philisophical diffrence here. I truly believe that almost any team can become a playoff team over night in this era of free agency. But, I also believe that is not the reciepe for continued sucesss. So as a fan I've been willing to sit through losing season after losing season by telling myself that this is all for the greater good of building the team the right way. IMO, we have arrrived. What I mean by that is we pretty much have the core players we are going to have and there are no glaring weakness even if our team isn't perfect. So to come all this way only to find out that our team is only good enough to sneak into the playoffs would be a great disappointment for me.

P.S. I also think that a development progress of a good football team is not nearly as linear as most of you make it. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'm pretty sure many teams in the playoffs over the last 10 years have gone from complete losers (4-12, 6-10) to overnight winners (11-5, 10-6, 12-4). That that we have slowly progress (2-14, 4-12, 7-9, 8-8) is probably a bad thing.

Quote:
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are a solid team in almost every area. In fact, they might have made the playoffs last year had they not faced the AFC South. Losing on the road to Houston and Indy, and then at home to the Titans, all but ended their playoff chances. But the 49ers discovered their offensive identity during that losing stretch and the best way to utilize quarterback Alex Smith. Smith is best when he can run the spread offense like he did in college, and if the 49ers can pass protect better and improve their ability to convert on third down, they will be a very good team in 2010. They have many of the pieces in place to be a playoff team, but playoff teams win on the road; the 49ers can't go 2-6 when they leave San Francisco this coming season. They won their road opener and finale, but lost every away game in between. Winning on the road in the NFL requires an offensive line that can handle the elements without affecting execution. Behind an improved offensive line, I believe the 49ers will be a red-chip team.

Red-chip = Playoff team

Michael Lombardi, NFL.com

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:

Originally posted by GORE-ILLA:

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:

Originally posted by GORE-ILLA:

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:

Originally posted by GORE-ILLA:

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:

Originally posted by GORE-ILLA:

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:

Originally posted by GORE-ILLA:

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Footballoutsiders.com has the 9ers pegged at 6-10, with the Cards winning the division. Hardly "roaring" into the playoffs, but then of course they are never right.

so..we are going to be alot worse than last season...with a better football team as a whole????

That's just the point. They seem to think we got some lucky breaks last year, and really aren't that good. They don't have much respect for Alex Smith or Singletary. I can't say that I agree with them, but at least it's a different perspective from the near uniform optimism in this thread.

i dont buy it..Sing is on the rise..so is this team..if it wasn't for some UNlucky breaks(if you will)...they would be jocking this team right now

You maybe right. I'm not arguin' with you. Just tellin' you what they say. They pick the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, and they haven't got that right since 2004.

for sure..i was arguing w footballoutsiders.com not u...they obviously diddn't watch the vikes and colts game last season...seems like they are going off just W/L and making bs predictions

They actually use complicated statistical formulas that include the results of each play throughout the season. It doesn't seem to get them to more accurate conclusions than anyone else, but their almanac is interesting to read. You can download it from their website for $12. It also gives their listing of fantasy players. During the season they rank teams every week, again using their own stats. You could say that they are interesting, but not necessarily helpful. I was disappointed that they didn't rank the 9ers higher for this year, and I sure hope they are wrong.

well thats sh*tty news.lol. i hope they are wrong also...we have the best D in our division...prolly top 5 in the NFL. that alone should get us at 6-10...dont you think?

By their metrics our D was 3rd best in the league last year but they don't think it will be quite as good this time. They expect regression to the mean in our turnover ratio which was exceptionally good last year at 33-18. They pose the question "Do we really think that Ahmed Brooks, who forced 1 fumble from 2006-2009 will force 5 again, in a 4-game stretch no less?" Our D had no key injuries last year, unless you count Nate Clements, whom they think is over-rated. Their summary blurb for the whole team is "After another front-office overhaul, a myopic return to "fundamentals" could bring disappointing results." Again, not saying I agree, but that's their opinion.

that is an awfully pecimistic way to look at it...i know some raider fans who hate the niners and THEY put us higher than that...if thats not an OUTSIDERS p.o.v... then I dont know what is

If it makes you feel better, they predict the Raiders will get 4.5 wins and call that team a farce.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Season Record: 9-7 or better
QB (Smith): 3500yd 23TD 15Int
RB (Gore): 1300yd 6TD 400yd rec 2TD
WR (Crabtree): 1050yd 7TD
TE (Davis): 850yd 8TD

Defense: +5 Turnover Differential

Probowlers:
Gore, V.Davis, P.Willis, M.Lawson, C.Rachal

First Round Playoffs: Win vs. Minn/GB (who ever is the wild card). Both those teams would be sweet, sweet revenge.

Then we don't have the combination of QB play (yet) and Coaching prowess to go further.

Overall, a successful season that awards every major coach and player extensions (minus M.Lawson and A.Franklin).

Originally posted by danimal:
You have to keep your expectations and desires separate.

Based on my unbiased knowledge of the NFL I expect the Niners to float around .500 and peak out in a wildcard playoff loss.

Based on my biased desires I would like the Niners to win 13 games and 2 playoff games.

Originally posted by danimal:
You have to keep your expectations and desires separate.

Based on my unbiased knowledge of the NFL I expect the Niners to float around .500 and peak out in a wildcard playoff loss.

Based on my biased desires I would like the Niners to win 13 games and 2 playoff games.

Originally posted by FL9er:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by defenderDX:
I haven't seen a 49er playoff game in f**king 8 years. I don't give a s**t whether we "roar" into the playoffs or not, I just want that damn streak to END. Once we end that streak we can finally set our eyes on establishing ourselves as a consistent, playoff contending team each year once again!

As corny as this might sound I guess there is a philisophical diffrence here. I truly believe that almost any team can become a playoff team over night in this era of free agency. But, I also believe that is not the reciepe for continued sucesss. So as a fan I've been willing to sit through losing season after losing season by telling myself that this is all for the greater good of building the team the right way. IMO, we have arrrived. What I mean by that is we pretty much have the core players we are going to have and there are no glaring weakness even if our team isn't perfect. So to come all this way only to find out that our team is only good enough to sneak into the playoffs would be a great disappointment for me.

P.S. I also think that a development progress of a good football team is not nearly as linear as most of you make it. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'm pretty sure many teams in the playoffs over the last 10 years have gone from complete losers (4-12, 6-10) to overnight winners (11-5, 10-6, 12-4). That that we have slowly progress (2-14, 4-12, 7-9, 8-8) is probably a bad thing.

Minnesota under Brad Childress:

2006 - 6-10
2007 - 8-8
2008 - 10-6
2009 - 12-4


New Orleans with Sean Payton:

2006 - 10-6
2007 - 7-9
2008 - 8-8
2009 - 13-3


Green Bay under Mike McCarthy:

2006 - 8-8
2007- 13-3
2008 - 6-10
2009 - 11-5


Arizona with Ken Whisenhunt:

2007 - 8-8
2008 - 9-7
2009 - 10-6


I don't think fans realize how hard it is to go from average to elite.