What I wrote from the Alex Bandwagon thread...enjoy!
ESPN's KC Joyner It's an Insider Article.
Brief:
Mr. Joyner uses Malcolm Gladwell's book "Outliers" to provide a foundation to build his case that THE factors that goes into whether or not a person will be successful is opportunity. "Gladwell shows how getting a lucky break and landing multiple long-term gigs in Hamburg, Germany, for example, gave the Beatles an opportunity to put in the necessary hours to hone their skills to an elite level."
He uses Gladwell's other example of opportunity with Bill Gates who lucked-out because his high school installed a state-of-the-art computer lab. Gates admitted that he was probably one of the "few people in the entire world with access to the type of computer he was able to start using when he was 13 years old."
Joyner then applies the above mindset and focus on opportunity to Alex He states the official position on Alex is that he's the starter. However, he contends, that the brass's "frequent use of words like "confidence" and "comfortable", along with Jed York's comment that "we believe in Alex," combine to make it sound like they are at some level hesitant to give Smith more opportunities."
He finds it odd that "there are multiple metric and statistical reasons to think that Smith is already among the top 50 percent of quarterbacks in the NFL."
He uses Alex's performance in the passer rating category. He states that Smith was able to post a rating of 88 or better in six of his 11 games last year. "If we look at the rest of the league, we find that only 16 of the 32 qualifying quarterbacks
(14 passes per game being the bar to rank to as a qualifier) bettered this total, but that doesn't take into account that every other quarterback ranking ahead of him on that list played in at least 14 games."
He then goes on to state that if we prorate Alex's game percentage with an 88 or better mark (54.5 percent) over a 16-game season, it roughly equates to nine games.
"There were only 11 passers with more 88-plus games last year and that doesn't take into account that Smith could improve upon that mark as he develops his skills."
He also adds that Alex did well in some passing yards per attempt (YPA) metric categories last season. "His 13.4 deep pass (balls thrown 20-29 yards downfield) YPA ranked 11th in the league and placed him slightly behind Donovan McNabb (13.6) and slightly ahead of Peyton Manning (13.1)."
Joyner then points to better stats for Smith when looking at his 2009 "long-ball" numbers (a pass being an aerial thrown 30-plus yards downfield).
"Smith's 25.3 YPA mark here was the best in the league. 
There is a caveat in that Smith did throw only 11 of these passes, but it still bodes extremely well for what his statistics in this area could look like over the course of an entire season."
(My observation: Just like in the OTAs this past month, Alex shows these stats and even the ones below where his short passes were falling short compared to the "bombs".)
J
oyner uses Smith's 5.4 mark in short pass YPA ranked 31st in the league last season as his shortcoming. However he reasons that it needs to placed in the proper perspective:
"The median short pass YPA last season was 6.4 yards, so adding merely one yard of YPA here would move Smith from near the bottom of the league to right in the middle.
(It is also worth noting the three quarterbacks who posted the 6.4 median short pass YPA mark in 2009 -- Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Manning.)"
Joyner also mentions that this is notable "because it wasn't a lack of accuracy or even completions that stunted Smith's short pass YPA." He had a 75.7 percent short pass success rate (a metric that divides completions and defensive penalty pass plays into short pass attempts) which ranks 16th in the league.
So Joyner questions then what was Smith's issues with the short passing game? There were multiple reasons for it,
but the primary reason was Michael Crabtree. He gained only a 4.3 YPA which him 85th of 88 qualifying receivers.
Given Crabtree's college YAC legacy, he expect better numbers from the second year WR.
What Joyner alludes too is that "Smith may already be in the midst of his Beatles/Hamburg or Gates/computer lab phase. If that is the case, it is worth noting one of Gladwell's other success components, which is the 10,000-hour rule. Numerous studies show that true mastery of a field does not occur until one puts in 10,000 hours of work within it."
Joyner states that the frequent changes at OC during Smith's first five years in the league mean that he probably didn't reach that necessary 10,000-hour benchmark. He states that the numbers say...
..."it would behoove the 49ers to do all they can to get him to that mark as soon as possible. If they do, they might end up with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL."
Wow! Simply, wow!
Go Alex!
PS WHEW! That was a college version of non-plagiarism...I hope. had some time on my break and thought this piece was worth noting especially here at the Zone.
Good to see some Smith love on ESPN. Dunno about the "best QB in the NFL" though.