Has Alex Smith proved to be the 49er's QB of the future?

NO

Originally posted by carlgo:
Smith is an incredibly slow learner. Even Raye said he was anal, and who better to diagnose that? If he was Nate Davis people would be making fun of his intelligence, how he couldn't learn stuff, etc.

Next year is finally THE year we get to find out. Nobody, please, please, give him any more time than that, the most patient handling of a QB in history. Stop it next year. If he is good, great. If he is Smith as we know him, stop it, stop it!

Don't blame the OL, the coaching, nothing. If he gets hurt, I cease to care. Too bad. Try elsewhere. Smith might help society by doing something else in life if that is the case. Build the world's best bridge, cure baldness, teach kids, play with a hot wife. End it one way or the other.

If even once he rolls out to his right and throws high to someone, end it on the spot. Then, immediately. No more of this.

If the ball gets batted down. Sit, sit now, end it. Zero tolerance. It has been a LOT of years.

Raye's offense sucks? Of course it does. Call an audible, be a man, screw him. What is Raye going to do, come stumbling down the stairs and swing feebly at him? Bench him? Sing might actually welcome Smith taking charge for once, don't you think? I'll bet he would smile and send Smith back out and tell Raye to go back to calling random plays and let Smith audible.

He is supposed to be smart? Show it. If he can't figure out Raye's offense, with, what, four different plays or something, then maybe there is no hope that some genius innovator is going to come in with a bunch of plays, reads and variations and somehow help him.

Oh, what about continuity? Friggin deal with it. Learn new plays and formations. Guess what, QBs right out of high school come in to play for mighty schools in front of 100,000 people and understand the plays thought up by high-powered coordinators.

Good grief, the local little high school here runs the spread, no-huddle, lonesome ends, and a whole pile of plays. The QB is a sophomore and they score 60 points a game. Jeez, Smith would probably be a 25 year old high school player sitting just one more year to learn the offense. Good grief, end this one way or the other.

Smith can't figure out the most basic and least innovative offense in history?. What is with this hesitation, this oh, his footwork is off and so he throws the ball into the hands of defenders.

So, put down paper footprints like it was a friggin dance lesson. You know, left, right, left, right. Get a retired drill sergeant to teach him fancy marching routines. How about river dancing lessons? Get that sweaty river dance guy to show him how to place his feet in the right spot.

Staring down receivers. Still, after all these years, one of the most basic things? Why? Can't remember where the receivers are headed and you have to look? They run on virtual dotted lines. They don't randomly run to wherever they see a pretty flower.

Raye's plays, again, are hard? Marz's were. Not all QBs or receivers can run that offense. But Raye's? Come on. After a year's exposure to Marz how in the world can you not grasp Raye?

No more of this. Smith was hurt. Ok, so study the offense. What would that take, what, an hour and a half? Crabtree wasn't even given a playbook and he ran right out there and seems to run in the correct direction and all that.

Smith was dissed by Nolan. That was stupid and unprofessional. Everyone knows about it. That was an brief episode in Smith's long football career. The Warriors have to deal with Nelson. Nelson is a pathological expert in screwing over players. If Nolan went to the Warriors and tried that crap they would just laugh at his lightweight efforts.

So, next year is IT! One way or the other for Smith. One way or the other for Raye, maybe even for Sing. It ends, there is that hope that all will turn out well, that Smith will be a top tier QB, that Raye will be gone, that Sing will embrace the future and that, secretly, the stadium has been built at a secret location, disguised as a Super WalMart.

I can hardly wait. It will be a turning point in the history of the Niners like none other since Walsh quit. It will be exciting.

come on Carlgo, don't hold back buddy.....tell me how you really feel.

great post.

Originally posted by dj43:
Here's the key thing for me with Alex Smith:

There is NO other realistic option for next season than to give Smith every available chance to succeed. Right now the 49ers finally have some young offensive talent with the potential to be pretty good next year. Crabtree and Davis are the obvious one, but I haven't given up on Morgan or Hill either although a true speed guy would be nice.

The real key is Frank Gore. He will be going into this fifth season, which means he will be already past the average career length for a RB. The 49ers cannot afford to start experimenting with a rookie or castaway FA from some other team while using up the remaining fuel in Frank's tank. (Frank the tank. get it?)

If Smith makes only a 20% improvement next year, he will easily exceed what could be expected of a rookie (Nate Davis is still a rookie).

There are NO realistic options in FA at QB. In this league, there are only 10 teams that are truly settled at QB. (Warner and McNabb are at the end of their careers) Only 12 overall had a rating of 90 or better. The rest of the teams have players like Matt Hasselback or David Garrard filling in until the Savior arrives. Smith will finish with a rating of about 82 which puts him #19 in the league. Considering the very high number of drops he had, his rating would go much higher if the drops were reduced to only average.

However, rating isn't my main point. Any other option, would require yet another building year in which Frank Gore would, once again, be expected to be the main weapon on offense. For a guy entering his fifth season, who absorbs as much punishment as his style draws, that would be inviting disaster.

No, Alex Smith as the pre-assigned starter for 2010 is the only logical option. With improvements in OL play and some first-string time with the young receivers through OTAs, training camp and pre-season, he will be good enough to take this team to the playoffs next year.

Let's just hope he helps us win those extra 2 or 3 games to put us into the playoffs.

Sigh, time to look forward to FA and the Draft. We were fairly silent in Free Agency last year. It will be interesting to see what we do with Franklin and if we bring in a top FA OL. I think we have good cap room.

Originally posted by dj43:
Here's the key thing for me with Alex Smith:

There is NO other realistic option for next season than to give Smith every available chance to succeed. Right now the 49ers finally have some young offensive talent with the potential to be pretty good next year. Crabtree and Davis are the obvious one, but I haven't given up on Morgan or Hill either although a true speed guy would be nice.

The real key is Frank Gore. He will be going into this fifth season, which means he will be already past the average career length for a RB. The 49ers cannot afford to start experimenting with a rookie or castaway FA from some other team while using up the remaining fuel in Frank's tank. (Frank the tank. get it?)

If Smith makes only a 20% improvement next year, he will easily exceed what could be expected of a rookie (Nate Davis is still a rookie).

There are NO realistic options in FA at QB. In this league, there are only 10 teams that are truly settled at QB. (Warner and McNabb are at the end of their careers) Only 12 overall had a rating of 90 or better. The rest of the teams have players like Matt Hasselback or David Garrard filling in until the Savior arrives. Smith will finish with a rating of about 82 which puts him #19 in the league. Considering the very high number of drops he had, his rating would go much higher if the drops were reduced to only average.

However, rating isn't my main point. Any other option, would require yet another building year in which Frank Gore would, once again, be expected to be the main weapon on offense. For a guy entering his fifth season, who absorbs as much punishment as his style draws, that would be inviting disaster.

No, Alex Smith as the pre-assigned starter for 2010 is the only logical option. With improvements in OL play and some first-string time with the young receivers through OTAs, training camp and pre-season, he will be good enough to take this team to the playoffs next year.

You basically summed it up perfectly. He's the best and pretty much only option. But to be honest I don't see him improving, and at somepoint this team is gonna need to upgrade that position no matter if it takes more time b/c Smith just isn't that good imo to take this team to the next level. And they have a real problem at WR with the lack of speed.

To the people making the decisions it seems. The near future at the very least.

Originally posted by lamontb:

Originally posted by dj43:
Here's the key thing for me with Alex Smith:

There is NO other realistic option for next season than to give Smith every available chance to succeed. Right now the 49ers finally have some young offensive talent with the potential to be pretty good next year. Crabtree and Davis are the obvious one, but I haven't given up on Morgan or Hill either although a true speed guy would be nice.

The real key is Frank Gore. He will be going into this fifth season, which means he will be already past the average career length for a RB. The 49ers cannot afford to start experimenting with a rookie or castaway FA from some other team while using up the remaining fuel in Frank's tank. (Frank the tank. get it?)

If Smith makes only a 20% improvement next year, he will easily exceed what could be expected of a rookie (Nate Davis is still a rookie).

There are NO realistic options in FA at QB. In this league, there are only 10 teams that are truly settled at QB. (Warner and McNabb are at the end of their careers) Only 12 overall had a rating of 90 or better. The rest of the teams have players like Matt Hasselback or David Garrard filling in until the Savior arrives. Smith will finish with a rating of about 82 which puts him #19 in the league. Considering the very high number of drops he had, his rating would go much higher if the drops were reduced to only average.

However, rating isn't my main point. Any other option, would require yet another building year in which Frank Gore would, once again, be expected to be the main weapon on offense. For a guy entering his fifth season, who absorbs as much punishment as his style draws, that would be inviting disaster.

No, Alex Smith as the pre-assigned starter for 2010 is the only logical option. With improvements in OL play and some first-string time with the young receivers through OTAs, training camp and pre-season, he will be good enough to take this team to the playoffs next year.

You basically summed it up perfectly. He's the best and pretty much only option. But to be honest I don't see him improving, and at somepoint this team is gonna need to upgrade that position no matter if it takes more time b/c Smith just isn't that good imo to take this team to the next level. And they have a real problem at WR with the lack of speed.

Exactly. A lot of people are quick to say he's the future and equally quick to say we should toss him to the curb. The answer is obviously somewhere in the middle. If not Alex next year then who? I don't hear much buzz about this years QB crop in either free agency or the draft.

I think with an off-season to add some help on the o-line, practice with the QB and WR's, and a unified offensive gameplan, the 49ers could see improvements next year. Going forward they can't keep doing this "sometimes its power-only" and "sometimes its shotgun" non-sense anymore...this team needs an identity and an off-season together should help that.

Incidentally I think Alex could do a much better job than Orton if he was in Denver.

Jimmy Raye's "Maverick" comment on Alex Smith is very concerning. That's basically a nice way to say the kid isn't a play maker if needed.

If we need everything around him to be at a high level, then I think his ceiling is lower than we thought, especially if don't see what we haven't seen during his career: a playmaker.

Players at skill positions who are not playmakers are, basically, backup players or they are effective starters on a team with a great defense or other great attributes. You can point to Troy Aikman comparison to Alex Smith but Aikman was freakishly accurate and gunned 20 yard out routes with ease. It almost seems that we will put very good surroundings around Alex but he will be less than Troy Aikman due to the lack of throwing ability and accuracy.

Alex isn't a play maker. In fact, Hill is more of a play maker than Alex Smith and that is very worrisome to know.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by dj43:
Here's the key thing for me with Alex Smith:

There is NO other realistic option for next season than to give Smith every available chance to succeed. Right now the 49ers finally have some young offensive talent with the potential to be pretty good next year. Crabtree and Davis are the obvious one, but I haven't given up on Morgan or Hill either although a true speed guy would be nice.

The real key is Frank Gore. He will be going into this fifth season, which means he will be already past the average career length for a RB. The 49ers cannot afford to start experimenting with a rookie or castaway FA from some other team while using up the remaining fuel in Frank's tank. (Frank the tank. get it?)

If Smith makes only a 20% improvement next year, he will easily exceed what could be expected of a rookie (Nate Davis is still a rookie).

There are NO realistic options in FA at QB. In this league, there are only 10 teams that are truly settled at QB. (Warner and McNabb are at the end of their careers) Only 12 overall had a rating of 90 or better. The rest of the teams have players like Matt Hasselback or David Garrard filling in until the Savior arrives. Smith will finish with a rating of about 82 which puts him #19 in the league. Considering the very high number of drops he had, his rating would go much higher if the drops were reduced to only average.

However, rating isn't my main point. Any other option, would require yet another building year in which Frank Gore would, once again, be expected to be the main weapon on offense. For a guy entering his fifth season, who absorbs as much punishment as his style draws, that would be inviting disaster.

No, Alex Smith as the pre-assigned starter for 2010 is the only logical option. With improvements in OL play and some first-string time with the young receivers through OTAs, training camp and pre-season, he will be good enough to take this team to the playoffs next year.

Let's just hope he helps us win those extra 2 or 3 games to put us into the playoffs.

Sigh, time to look forward to FA and the Draft. We were fairly silent in Free Agency last year. It will be interesting to see what we do with Franklin and if we bring in a top FA OL. I think we have good cap room.

FA will be interesting considering the cap situation. I am not overly optimistic that there will be a great deal of talent available in positions of need. Keeping Franklin may be the most important FA move they could make. He doesn't have as many miles as most because he didn't play much until he came here.

But to Smith, I would not be opposed to drafting another QB in the 4th or 5th rounds after allowing Hill to leave, depending on who is available at the time. I'm not willing to sit with only Hill and Davis for the future. If Smith develops to where the extra guy is expendable, then there is trade bait.

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:

Originally posted by LambdaChi49:

Originally posted by D_Niner:
Question for those of you who voted to give him more time....

How much longer do you think it will take?

Just as a reference, it's taken him 3 years to improve his QB rate from the mid 70's to the low 80's.

Well it took 40 healthy starts to get into the 80s.

40 starts = about 2.5 years.



I'm pretty confident that with an off season of building trust, timing, and chemistry with his recievers, drafting/signing some DECENT (not asking for all pro) o-line man...Alex will definitely be a solid and good QB. Frankly, I thought he'd be a disaster when entered into the line up this season. Ok well not a "disaster" but not 81.5 rating with 18tds and 12 ints in 10.5 games. Thats not amazing obviously but just better than I thought considering our line, Crabtree coming in late, etc.

Its logical to assume that with a solid off season, we should go 10-6 and make it into the play offs and Alex SHOULD be successful no excuses.

As always, you are hedging your bet on Alex by saying "SHOULD" instead of "WILL". That uncertainty is what is gnawing at a lot of Niners fans. That is the multi-million question that Sing and Scotty must answer. How much uncertainty do you put up with before you make a move for the long term?

Well, the consensus seems to be 2010. It's Alex's last year on his contract anyway. I say by Week 4 of next year if he's this wildly inconsistent the team will obviously not extend him and try to make other arrangements.

But again, Alex has shown (slow) progression (based on QB rating). No one is saying he's perfect or that he isnt making the same mistakes. However, he's making LESS of those mistakes and frankly, I've seen more good than bad. The confidence is definitely there.

The only thing that truly bugs me are the high throws. But that seems to be more of a mechanical issue when he's under duress as opposed to just "the way he is."

So that said, I'm not that "uncertain" to be honest. I think we'll see something like 25-30TDs and 10-17 INTs next year. Those are pretty decent #s. I think Crabtree and Vernon will help Alex tremendously. With a solid off season, some o-lineman that can actually block...I dont see why he would regress more. That's my thinking. PART (not all) of Alex's problem is the lack of blocking and lack of chemistry, trust, and timing with this offense. If THAT part can be "solved," one can logically assume with a high level of certainty that he WILL improve. I dont think thats nut hugging or anything. Its just a realistic expecation. Given the circumstances, he had an 81.5 rating and 18tds in 10.5 games. BASED on that info..its reasonable to assume he'll do better next year.

You have to remember...despite the "Alexcuses," or "circumstances," Alex has shown improvement every year he's healthy and starting.

40.8 - 2005 (7 games i think)
Rookie looked like donkey di*k.

74.8 - 2006 (16 games)
Showed enough progress to where people felt he could be the guy. 2 solid 4th qtr comebacks.

63.7 - 2007 (3 healthy games. Slight regression in ratings but we were 2-1).
Didn't light up the stat board in his 3 healthy games but led us to 2-1. Had a great 4th qtr come back in game 1 vs AZ. Rest of the year was BS because he had a Grade 3 shoulder separation that required surgery.

81.5 - 2009 (10.5 games)
Inconsistent but taking more chances on the field. A different Alex in terms of confidence and assertiveness. Certainly not perfect but not the same puny kid we drafted in 2005. Shows that we can open up the play book. Despite having a poor o-line, a rookie #1 WR, and VERY inconsistent play calling because we DONT have an idenity...he managed some decent games and stats. Nothing amazing, but definitely better than anything we've seen from him.

??.?? - 2010
First time he will have continuity in his NFL career. First time since 05-06 off season where he will (presumably) have 100% of the first team reps. Last time he did this, his rating jumped almost 35 points. (Not saying he'll have a 120 rating next season but you get my point). First time in his career he will have LEGIT weapons to establish rapport with. And HOPEFULLY first time in his NFL career he will have solid o-line protecting him.

Cant imagine he'd suck it up in 2010 barring some personal melt down.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by dj43:
Here's the key thing for me with Alex Smith:

There is NO other realistic option for next season than to give Smith every available chance to succeed. Right now the 49ers finally have some young offensive talent with the potential to be pretty good next year. Crabtree and Davis are the obvious one, but I haven't given up on Morgan or Hill either although a true speed guy would be nice.

The real key is Frank Gore. He will be going into this fifth season, which means he will be already past the average career length for a RB. The 49ers cannot afford to start experimenting with a rookie or castaway FA from some other team while using up the remaining fuel in Frank's tank. (Frank the tank. get it?)

If Smith makes only a 20% improvement next year, he will easily exceed what could be expected of a rookie (Nate Davis is still a rookie).

There are NO realistic options in FA at QB. In this league, there are only 10 teams that are truly settled at QB. (Warner and McNabb are at the end of their careers) Only 12 overall had a rating of 90 or better. The rest of the teams have players like Matt Hasselback or David Garrard filling in until the Savior arrives. Smith will finish with a rating of about 82 which puts him #19 in the league. Considering the very high number of drops he had, his rating would go much higher if the drops were reduced to only average.

However, rating isn't my main point. Any other option, would require yet another building year in which Frank Gore would, once again, be expected to be the main weapon on offense. For a guy entering his fifth season, who absorbs as much punishment as his style draws, that would be inviting disaster.

No, Alex Smith as the pre-assigned starter for 2010 is the only logical option. With improvements in OL play and some first-string time with the young receivers through OTAs, training camp and pre-season, he will be good enough to take this team to the playoffs next year.

Let's just hope he helps us win those extra 2 or 3 games to put us into the playoffs.

Sigh, time to look forward to FA and the Draft. We were fairly silent in Free Agency last year. It will be interesting to see what we do with Franklin and if we bring in a top FA OL. I think we have good cap room.

FA will be interesting considering the cap situation. I am not overly optimistic that there will be a great deal of talent available in positions of need. Keeping Franklin may be the most important FA move they could make. He doesn't have as many miles as most because he didn't play much until he came here.

But to Smith, I would not be opposed to drafting another QB in the 4th or 5th rounds after allowing Hill to leave, depending on who is available at the time. I'm not willing to sit with only Hill and Davis for the future. If Smith develops to where the extra guy is expendable, then there is trade bait.

Honestly, having a backup QB who can win you games is vital. Hill will stay considering how important making the playoffs will be next year for McCloughan. I don't think he can afford to have Smith start with no legit backup. If Smith gets hurt, the season is over but if Hill is here, then he may sustain the progress in the team.

NO! Did the same person just keep voting for "Give him more time"??? I cant believe you guys think this guy is the answer. He has been in the league for 5 years!! He shouldnt still be running out to his right side and throwin the ball out of bounds. He should be STEPPING UP IN THE POCKET. He had 23 yards passing in the first half against the RAMS!!! They are the worst team in the league. He is not accurate (underthrew a wide open Crabs in the middle of the field against the Lions and Rams), and overthrows receivers on out routes. Enough is enough. Lets not settle for someone who will not lead us to what we want to be: Winners

He sucked against Detroit and St. Louis. That tells you somethin right there.

Oh yeah... His last two wins vs the Lions and Rams were impressive!

50% think he has, or will be soon.
25% total just want a new QB now.
25% say stick with Alex and then Nate when he's ready.

*Shrug*

Alex is just good enough to lose and not good enough to win. That being said, we don't have many options if any so we're stuck in groundhog day hell for at least another year. I hope they make Nate Davis the #2 QB and groom him for the future.