Opinion on Manny Lawson

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
3

6

Originally posted by indianajim:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

The continual problem with threads like these are it encourages board members to vote with their heart and not their head. Of course, I'd love to see Manny pick up ten sacks. However, there is no indication that he will be even close to this number. HE HAS ALWAYS STRUGGLED AS A PASS RUSHER IN THE NFL!!!!!

But you also have to factor intent. Mike Nolan blitzed how often a game? Like three times? Maybe if he was feeling really aggressive.

The fact is Nolan loves guys who can cover, and Lawson was never allowed to try and become an NFL pass-rusher. They didn't give him time to try and become that. Singletary is going to let him loose, so I think his statistics in the past are based entirely on opportunity. Last season, and Singletary said this himself, Lawson struggled with confidence on his repaired knee. Now call it an excuse if you want, but if a HOF linebacker suggests it was an issue, then it was an issue. If Parys Haralson can get 8 sacks, then Manny in 2009 can get 8+.

Ummm... Manny is not a better pass rusher than haralson, so how can you say that he can more than him based off nothing?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by BMore9ersfan:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by BMore9ersfan:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by BrodieFan:
I would just like to understand why some Niner fans get completely pushed out of shape over fans who are optimistic about a player or an upcoming season. What exactly is with that? It's like going to a wedding and in the middle of the festivities, reminding the happy couple that only half of all marriages work out. What's the point?

You are right. I am wrong.

Shaun Hill will throw for 18,000 yards in 2009.
Frank Gore will rush for 2400 yards, and have 137 receptions and 36 TD's in 2009.
Manny Lawson will have 20 sacks in 2009.
Parys Haralson will have 45 sacks in 2009.
Michael Crabtree will win the MVP award after catching 589 balls for 9578 yards in 2009.

Screw stats, logic, rational thought, a clear head, any form of historical perspective, objective analysis. I am entitled to my opinion, and how dare anyone criticize me. How dare anyone challenge anything I say. I mean, it is simply a message board.

While I am at it: The World Trade Center was moved by aliens to the planet Cyborg, Mormons do live on the dark side of the moon, the earth will end in 2012, and meat does not have protein.

Cheers.

Dude, no one is saying that you can't have your own opinion, but you do sound a little hypocritical going off on people for challenging your opinion when you just called those with differing opinions “very silly”. Respect goes two ways. If you want respect, you have to give it in return. So what if people are overly optimistic? Like you said, this is just a message board. The truth is that while stats can be an excellent barometer of future performance, they don’t always tell the whole story. Prior to 2007 James Harrison never had more than 3 sacks in a season. In 2007, his 4th in the league he had 8.5 and 16.5 last year. Prior to last year Matt Cassell had never started a game at the college or pro level, yet he went on to post really good numbers anyway. Players mature at different rates. To blindly say that a player can’t or won’t excel simply based on past performances. Is just as bad as guaranteeing he will, especially when that player has all the tools to succeed and has dealt with injuries and schemes that aided in him not succeeding up to now.

The section you put in bold was sarcasm on my part.

Here is what it comes down to: If a person has completely lost all form of objectivity, then I will criticize. Blind homerism only makes this board a joke. I'm just simply trying to shake these people into reality, and improve rational arguments. Wild, irrational predictions overrun the board this time of the year. I can't help whacking these people over the head with their outrageous statements.

Did any person who voted for 10 sacks or more look at stats last year and ask themselves the question: Will Manny finish in the top 12 in sacks in 2009? If someone made this a new thread, they'd be trashed (however, anything is possible on the board). And yet, a quarter of the board thinks that Manny Lawson is an elite pass rusher.

The last statement is irrational, so voting for 10 sacks or more is also irrational.

P.S. Sometimes people will go out on a limb and make an outrageous prediction. For instance, if someone makes a thread stating that Gore will run for 1700 yards this year, they are going to need to clearly explain how this crazy number will be achieved. If argued well, then I have no problem.

I agree that in all probability Lawson won't have 10+ sacks next year. Somewhere between 6 and 10 is more likely. However, I do not feel that it's out of the question that he could crack the 10 mark. He has all of the tools to be one of the top sack artists in the league. Whether or not he can put it all together and get’s it done is the question. As a rule, I hate prediction threads. All too often they turn into nothing more than arguments. You either have people making predictions that are either way to high or way to low. So I do my best to stay away from predictions.

I also agree with you on the question of “blind homerism” as you call it. From day to day one can read some pretty outrages statements on this board, but I don’t put saying Manny can get more 10+ sacks into the blind homerism category. Manny becoming a elite pass rusher is more of an improbability that an impossibility. Like I said, he appears to have all the tools necessary, he just hasn’t put them all together. Maybe he will or maybe he won’t. I don’t know, but I’d like to think that he will some day. What I call blind homerism is when I read statements like “I wouldn’t choose any QB in the league outside of Manning or Brady over Hill”. Those types of ridicules statements drive me crazy and you see them all the time around here.

The continual problem with threads like these are it encourages board members to vote with their heart and not their head. Of course, I'd love to see Manny pick up ten sacks. However, there is no indication that he will be even close to this number. HE HAS ALWAYS STRUGGLED AS A PASS RUSHER IN THE NFL!!!!!

Maybe these polls should come with a disclaimer, in bold letters, such as: "WHAT IS MOST PROBABLE......?" It is not most probable that he will have 10 sacks. Not close.[/b]

P.S. For those who still believe he will pick up ten sacks or more, what has Manny proven to be considered in this statistical catagory, to be amongst the elite pass rushers in the NFL?

This is the continual problem with the board. According to many, our 5th rounder, Nate Davis, is our future franchise QB. Of course, these same people will dismiss the fact that the previous 20 QB's drafted in the 5th round have done absolutely nothing in this league. But, since he is wearing a Niners' jersey, he suddenly becomes a star.

Crabtree will get 60+ catches and 1000 yards this season. Soap will pick up 8.5 sacks. JTO will throw for 4000 yards. Gore will run for 1700 this season. The Niners' defense will be top 5. The list of improbables get thrown around as not only possible, but probable, every year.

I guess I feel a sense of duty to reign in this parade of silliness every offseason.

P.S. I fully expect a list of improbables to be shown to me (Montana, Brady, T. Davis, etc.). The problem, once again, is that board members will take these longshots who make it, and project our current players to do the same. However, a longshot is a longshot. Otherwise, they wouldn't be a longshot. Just because they wear a Niners jersey does not suddenly mean that their chances for success exponentially improves.

I'll tell you right now hes going to have 8 or more sacks. Easy. If you go back and look at his past, he was clearly getting in the backfield. He was causing havoc Maddog, you have to agree.

With 15 more pounds of muscle, and Sing coaching to actually GO after the QB, you have to somewhat believe that with Manny being that every down LB this year, then its clearly likely to me. Wasnt his rookie year worth something when he finished with 57 tackles and a couple sacks? Shoot, if a player in his rookie year can accumulate 2 sacks + 2 more hurries in one game, then in all likelyhood:

let him heal an extra offseason,
have him put on some weight,
put him in on 1st and 2nd down,
get the big nickle hybrid stuff out here,
let Patrick and Takeo do their thing,
and bring the pain, per Sing...

and you'll get a productive Manny Lawson. Thats what I think

Originally posted by SFL49ER:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by BMore9ersfan:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by BMore9ersfan:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by BrodieFan:
I would just like to understand why some Niner fans get completely pushed out of shape over fans who are optimistic about a player or an upcoming season. What exactly is with that? It's like going to a wedding and in the middle of the festivities, reminding the happy couple that only half of all marriages work out. What's the point?

You are right. I am wrong.

Shaun Hill will throw for 18,000 yards in 2009.
Frank Gore will rush for 2400 yards, and have 137 receptions and 36 TD's in 2009.
Manny Lawson will have 20 sacks in 2009.
Parys Haralson will have 45 sacks in 2009.
Michael Crabtree will win the MVP award after catching 589 balls for 9578 yards in 2009.

Screw stats, logic, rational thought, a clear head, any form of historical perspective, objective analysis. I am entitled to my opinion, and how dare anyone criticize me. How dare anyone challenge anything I say. I mean, it is simply a message board.

While I am at it: The World Trade Center was moved by aliens to the planet Cyborg, Mormons do live on the dark side of the moon, the earth will end in 2012, and meat does not have protein.

Cheers.

Dude, no one is saying that you can't have your own opinion, but you do sound a little hypocritical going off on people for challenging your opinion when you just called those with differing opinions “very silly”. Respect goes two ways. If you want respect, you have to give it in return. So what if people are overly optimistic? Like you said, this is just a message board. The truth is that while stats can be an excellent barometer of future performance, they don’t always tell the whole story. Prior to 2007 James Harrison never had more than 3 sacks in a season. In 2007, his 4th in the league he had 8.5 and 16.5 last year. Prior to last year Matt Cassell had never started a game at the college or pro level, yet he went on to post really good numbers anyway. Players mature at different rates. To blindly say that a player can’t or won’t excel simply based on past performances. Is just as bad as guaranteeing he will, especially when that player has all the tools to succeed and has dealt with injuries and schemes that aided in him not succeeding up to now.

The section you put in bold was sarcasm on my part.

Here is what it comes down to: If a person has completely lost all form of objectivity, then I will criticize. Blind homerism only makes this board a joke. I'm just simply trying to shake these people into reality, and improve rational arguments. Wild, irrational predictions overrun the board this time of the year. I can't help whacking these people over the head with their outrageous statements.

Did any person who voted for 10 sacks or more look at stats last year and ask themselves the question: Will Manny finish in the top 12 in sacks in 2009? If someone made this a new thread, they'd be trashed (however, anything is possible on the board). And yet, a quarter of the board thinks that Manny Lawson is an elite pass rusher.

The last statement is irrational, so voting for 10 sacks or more is also irrational.

P.S. Sometimes people will go out on a limb and make an outrageous prediction. For instance, if someone makes a thread stating that Gore will run for 1700 yards this year, they are going to need to clearly explain how this crazy number will be achieved. If argued well, then I have no problem.

I agree that in all probability Lawson won't have 10+ sacks next year. Somewhere between 6 and 10 is more likely. However, I do not feel that it's out of the question that he could crack the 10 mark. He has all of the tools to be one of the top sack artists in the league. Whether or not he can put it all together and get’s it done is the question. As a rule, I hate prediction threads. All too often they turn into nothing more than arguments. You either have people making predictions that are either way to high or way to low. So I do my best to stay away from predictions.

I also agree with you on the question of “blind homerism” as you call it. From day to day one can read some pretty outrages statements on this board, but I don’t put saying Manny can get more 10+ sacks into the blind homerism category. Manny becoming a elite pass rusher is more of an improbability that an impossibility. Like I said, he appears to have all the tools necessary, he just hasn’t put them all together. Maybe he will or maybe he won’t. I don’t know, but I’d like to think that he will some day. What I call blind homerism is when I read statements like “I wouldn’t choose any QB in the league outside of Manning or Brady over Hill”. Those types of ridicules statements drive me crazy and you see them all the time around here.

The continual problem with threads like these are it encourages board members to vote with their heart and not their head. Of course, I'd love to see Manny pick up ten sacks. However, there is no indication that he will be even close to this number. HE HAS ALWAYS STRUGGLED AS A PASS RUSHER IN THE NFL!!!!!

Maybe these polls should come with a disclaimer, in bold letters, such as: "WHAT IS MOST PROBABLE......?" It is not most probable that he will have 10 sacks. Not close.[/b]

P.S. For those who still believe he will pick up ten sacks or more, what has Manny proven to be considered in this statistical catagory, to be amongst the elite pass rushers in the NFL?

This is the continual problem with the board. According to many, our 5th rounder, Nate Davis, is our future franchise QB. Of course, these same people will dismiss the fact that the previous 20 QB's drafted in the 5th round have done absolutely nothing in this league. But, since he is wearing a Niners' jersey, he suddenly becomes a star.

Crabtree will get 60+ catches and 1000 yards this season. Soap will pick up 8.5 sacks. JTO will throw for 4000 yards. Gore will run for 1700 this season. The Niners' defense will be top 5. The list of improbables get thrown around as not only possible, but probable, every year.

I guess I feel a sense of duty to reign in this parade of silliness every offseason.

P.S. I fully expect a list of improbables to be shown to me (Montana, Brady, T. Davis, etc.). The problem, once again, is that board members will take these longshots who make it, and project our current players to do the same. However, a longshot is a longshot. Otherwise, they wouldn't be a longshot. Just because they wear a Niners jersey does not suddenly mean that their chances for success exponentially improves.

I'll tell you right now hes going to have 8 or more sacks. Easy. If you go back and look at his past, he was clearly getting in the backfield. He was causing havoc Maddog, you have to agree.

With 15 more pounds of muscle, and Sing coaching to actually GO after the QB, you have to somewhat believe that with Manny being that every down LB this year, then its clearly likely to me. Wasnt his rookie year worth something when he finished with 57 tackles and a couple sacks? Shoot, if a player in his rookie year can accumulate 2 sacks + 2 more hurries in one game, then in all likelyhood:

let him heal an extra offseason,
have him put on some weight,
put him in on 1st and 2nd down,
get the big nickle hybrid stuff out here,
let Patrick and Takeo do their thing,
and bring the pain, per Sing...

and you'll get a productive Manny Lawson. Thats what I think

WOW, very incitefull

wont haralson get more rushes and lawson get more coverage?

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
wont haralson get more rushes and lawson get more coverage?

NO. Again, they've plainly stated that the plan for Lawson this year is to be a 3-down pass rusher. So we'll find out once and for all whether or not Lawson can get to the QB when the scheme is designed for him to do that. I'm hoping he surprises everyone.

Originally posted by SFL49ER:

let him heal an extra offseason,
have him put on some weight,
put him in on 1st and 2nd down,
get the big nickle hybrid stuff out here,
let Patrick and Takeo do their thing,
and bring the pain, per Sing...

and you'll get a productive Manny Lawson. Thats what I think

NO NO NO! Don't you realize that no player can EVER improve? If they played poorly last year then they will do so this year - past performance completely guarantees future results. Always. Change in training, maturity, playing time, scheme and philosophy are all COMPLETELY irrelevant.




On a more serious note, 5-7 sacks sounds about right.

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:

Originally posted by SFL49ER:

let him heal an extra offseason,
have him put on some weight,
put him in on 1st and 2nd down,
get the big nickle hybrid stuff out here,
let Patrick and Takeo do their thing,
and bring the pain, per Sing...

and you'll get a productive Manny Lawson. Thats what I think

NO NO NO! Don't you realize that no player can EVER improve? If they played poorly last year then they will do so this year - past performance completely guarantees future results. Always. Change in training, playing time, scheme and philosophy are all COMPLETELY irrelevant.

That's right! Take a team that's, oh let's see, 6-10 in 1980 and 2-14 the year before that. That team is DEFINITELY NOT going to go 13-3 and win the Superbowl. Just can't happen!

Originally posted by indianajim:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

The continual problem with threads like these are it encourages board members to vote with their heart and not their head. Of course, I'd love to see Manny pick up ten sacks. However, there is no indication that he will be even close to this number. HE HAS ALWAYS STRUGGLED AS A PASS RUSHER IN THE NFL!!!!!

But you also have to factor intent. Mike Nolan blitzed how often a game? Like three times? Maybe if he was feeling really aggressive.

The fact is Nolan loves guys who can cover, and Lawson was never allowed to try and become an NFL pass-rusher. They didn't give him time to try and become that. Singletary is going to let him loose, so I think his statistics in the past are based entirely on opportunity. Last season, and Singletary said this himself, Lawson struggled with confidence on his repaired knee. Now call it an excuse if you want, but if a HOF linebacker suggests it was an issue, then it was an issue. If Parys Haralson can get 8 sacks, then Manny in 2009 can get 8+.

I agree with you that scheme is a HUGE factor as well as identifying roles and responsibilities for each player so that they can specialize, grow and excel at those positions. One of the issues I have had with our scheme is that we use our OLB in very watered-down, vanilla and predictable positions making it difficult to be successful and not utilizing their talents and skill-set.

But what we forget also is that Manny WAS used as an every down pass rusher his rookie year playing the WILL position. He was so unsuccessful at it, he was benched for a couple games and then moved to the SAM position where he was used, like Julian Peterson, as primarily a coverage, athletic OLB.

This is a bad sign for many reasons:
1. It makes the defense even easier to defend and more predictable b/c you KNOW the pass rush won't come from his side rolling blocking schemes over to the WILL side and that's assuming that side is successful
2. Teams know he can effectively be blocked one-on-one so no need to keep a TE or RB in to block
3. We SHOULD be using a secondary player in coverage and NOT a 6'5" OLB
4. He's 6'5" and has a very high center and when allowed to pass rush, relies solely on his quickness, often times blowing up the field and running himself right out of the play whereby a RB runs for huge gains off tackle

I honestly think 8-10. With the simplification of our defense I can see him being just as good if not better than Parys and if Haralson would have started 16 games he would have double digit sacks imo. If we can get 8-10 sacks from the both of them that would be very good. I'm honestly not to worried about our pass rush this year. Not because of the personell but the new scheme will make a huge difference.

If either him or Parys get 10, we are in good shape.

5-7


I like Manny and I hope he does better than that. But I think that's reasonable especially if they actually keep him on the field and blitz him more often.

4-6

I haven't seen him utilized as a pass rusher so I will throw out a low number seems how it will match my expectation. I say 4-6