Which EDGE Stats Actually Translate to the NFL - A predictive model

ritz126 · 2026-04-27T15:45:07-07:00

I came across this article by Michael Nania and thought it was interesting. I have no idea where i should post this so feel free to place this somewhere else if needed (note to mods) This is just a summary of pretty much what he said if you dont want to go through the article linked above He analyzed a sample of EDGE rushers by comparing 15 different stats from their final college season to how they performed in the NFL (using PFF grades as a proxy for success). The idea was to see which college metrics actually translate to the next level. His data showed that for EDGE players, there are 4 stats that translated well from college production to NFL success The 4 stats were: Overall PFF grade (r = .576) Pressure rate (r = .493) Pass-rush win rate (r = .480) Sack rate (r = .454) He combined these 4 stats into what he calls the "Big 4". Here is some data he showed from EDGE prospects over the past decade obviously it is debatable how useful PFF grades are but if you look at the top of the list those are who I would consider the top EDGE rushers He applied this to the 2026 class and this was the results he got Of note, based on this model, Romello Height graded out as the 2nd-best prospect in the class. His underlying metrics were strong across the board, including: Pressure rate: 17.7% (3rd) Sack rate: 2.6% (6th) Pass-rush win rate: 21.8% (2nd) I thought this was pretty interesting, especially in the context of Romello Height. If this model holds up it's definitely a positive sign for his potential success here as a pass rusher

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Apr 27, 2026 at 6:07 PM

49ers808
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Posts: 16,392

Interesting. Thanks for this!! 🤙🏾

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Apr 27, 2026 at 7:32 PM

tohara3
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Posts: 30,649

Nice, thanks

Apr 28, 2026 at 12:50 PM

Giedi
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Posts: 33,805

Great points!

Apr 29, 2026 at 2:13 PM

GoreGoreGore
10HourChicken
Posts: 61,287

Good find

May 3, 2026 at 12:22 PM

pdc20
Veteran
Posts: 2,244

Awesome post! Thank you!

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