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Draft Grade Project

miked1978 · 2025-11-20T13:04:06-08:00

Here is a little project I've been working on and thought some of you draft nerds like me would find this interesting. I've gone till 2000 and started grading every draft pick's career. I'm far from done but I'm at a point where I have collected enough information to where my overall average's aren't moving much. I think I'm pretty lenient on my grades as I focus more on their career then where they were drafted. For instance Solomon Thomas is a perfect example as to us 49er fans he was a bust but he is entering his 9th year in the league and is still playing. He is a role player. He has a D grade from me. Here is my grading scale I use A: Great player with at least 1 All Pro selection OR a lot of Pro Bowl selections B: Good player with maybe a couple Pro Bowl selections C: Your avg player. Started and played multiple years D: Replacement level player. Role player. F: Bad player. Bust. Never made it to the end of his rookie contract. Not in the league for long First Round Statistics: A: 25% chance a team will draft this type of player B: 19% chance a team will draft this type of player C: 27% chance a team will draft this type of player D: 18% chance a team will draft this type of player F: 11% chance a team will draft this type of player 44% chance your team will draft a pro bowl caliber player 29% chance these players are role players or worse 2nd Round Statistics: A: 9% chance a team will draft this type of player B: 12% chance a team will draft this type of player C: 36% chance a team will draft this type of player D: 24% chance a team will draft this type of player F: 18% chance a team will draft this type of player 21% chance your team will draft a pro bowl caliber player 42% chance these players are role players or worse 3rd Round Statistics: A: 5% chance a team will draft this type of player B: 8% chance a team will draft this type of player C: 24% chance a team will draft this type of player D: 36% chance a team will draft this type of player F: 32% chance a team will draft this type of player 13% chance your team will draft a pro bowl caliber player 64% chance these players are role players or worse 4th Round Statistics: A: 2% chance a team will draft this type of player B: 5% chance a team will draft this type of player C: 21% chance a team will draft this type of player D: 33% chance a team will draft this type of player F: 39% chance a team will draft this type of player 7% chance your team will draft a pro bowl caliber player 72% chance these players are role players or worse 5th Round Statistics: A: 2% chance a team will draft this type of player B: 4% chance a team will draft this type of player C: 15% chance a team will draft this type of player D: 28% chance a team will draft this type of player F: 50% chance a team will draft this type of player 6% chance your team will draft a pro bowl caliber player 78% chance these players are role players or worse 6th Round Statistics: A: 1% chance a team will draft this type of player B: 2% chance a team will draft this type of player C: 11% chance a team will draft this type of player D: 25% chance a team will draft this type of player F: 61% chance a team will draft this type of player 3% chance your team will draft a pro bowl caliber player 86% chance these players are role players or worse 7th Round Statistics: A: <1% chance a team will draft this type of player B: 1% chance a team will draft this type of player C: 10% chance a team will draft this type of player D: 20% chance a team will draft this type of player F: 69% chance a team will draft this type of player 2% chance your team will draft a pro bowl caliber player 89% chance these players are role players or worse Now if you were to add everything up and average it all out and look at it by draft classes you'll get some mind blowing statistics. Take your typical draft class of 7 picks. Your team only has a 12% chance to draft a pro bowl caliber player. 32% to draft a player average or above That is crazy to me. basically 3 out of your team's 7 picks will be average or better. I have a lot of other information i'm tracking so if you want to see something let me know i might have it.

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Nov 20, 2025 at 2:47 PM

ChaunceyGardner
Q46 Draft Winner
Posts: 23,985

Purdy the stat wrecker

Nov 21, 2025 at 5:24 AM

miked1978
Veteran
Posts: 12,759

Originally posted by ChaunceyGardner:
Purdy the stat wrecker

Yeah it just goes to show you how special he is as far as 7th round success.

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