Not sold on 49ers picking a WR with 13th Pick | Page 17

Vancouver49er · 2020-03-25T02:17:06-07:00

Yes, I know the draft is full of quality WRs, some say the best WR class in years. And yes, we lost Emmanuel Sanders, and people say we need to replace him with one of the elite WRs available in the draft. But I don't think that in KS offensive schemes, a WR is as important as perhaps it is for other teams. Last season, JG completed 329 passes, of these 102 were caught by TEs. Namely, Kittle with 85, Dwelley with 15, and Toilolo with 2. That's almost one third of passes thrown, caught by a TE. Of the remaining 226 passes caught, 74 were caught by RBs and an FB. This means that 53% of passes were caught by a Non WR. I don't know if its the same with other teams, but it seems to me that KS schemes people open, people with good hands, regardless of the position they play. Are we bereft of quality WRs without Sanders? I don't think so. Deebo is certainly going to get increased targets, and Bourne is a serious Red Zone threat. We have added a veteran Travis Benjamin, and we still have the side players like Pettis, Goodwin, James, Wilson, and Matthews. They know they have to step up their games, especially with the returns of Jalen Hurd and Trent Taylor. There must be a reason that KS and John Lynch kept those 2 on injured reserve, and I am excited to see what they can do. And if they decided they really needed another WR, there are a lot of decent WRs in FA right now. I can't believe that the top 5 WRs in the draft are significantly better then some of these FA WRs out there right now. So much better that they warrant a first round pick on. Because of all these reasons, I just don't see JL and KS drafting a WR with the 13th pick. Maybe with the 31st pick if they don't trade out of it. If Kinlaw, Derrick Brown, or wishful thinking, Chase Young/Isiah Simmons were there at 13, I think they have to go with one of them. Good rushers don't always hit the Free Agency Market, and if they did, there is a big demand for them. Not so much for FA WR. The front office needs to go defence with this first pick. Just my 2 cents.

Mar 30, 2020 at 9:39 AM

#241

eastcoast49ersfan
Veteran
Posts: 4,112

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by OsBoogie:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I'm with flynhayn. If you believe in picking BPA, there are 4 OTs better than any of the WRs in this draft. WR is a bigger position of need, but it's a position we can address later in the draft.

Good luck finding a future starting LT at 31 this year or 32 next year. WR is a bigger need right now but won't be in the future.

I do not agree with this at all. Can 4 OT's go before them? Sure. Are they better prospects? Nope. You might have an argument for one or two. Not 4 OT's graded higher than Jeudy or Lamb

Yeah, all 3 WRs have a higher grade than your OTs.

CBS has them:
1. Willis
2. Lamb
3. Wirfs
4. Becton
5. Jeudy
6. Ruggs
7. Thomas

You can make a strong argument Thomas is underrated on a lot of big boards. Wirfs and Becton are consistently mocked ahead of any of the WRs and Willis is the highest ranked OL on many boards. Betting lines show all four OTs are favored to get drafted earlier than any of the WRs. They play a more valuable position. None of these WRs are on Amari Cooper's level as a prospect (he was Jeudy but 20 pounds heavier coming out) let alone elite prospects like Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones.

Oddshark odds put the O/U for them as follows:
OTs:
Wirfs: Most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 8.5)
Becton: 8.5
Willis: 3rd most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 10.5)
Thomas: 10.5
WRs:
Jeudy: 12.5
Lamb: 12.5
Ruggs: 15.5

Mar 30, 2020 at 9:42 AM

#242

ChaunceyGardner
Q46 Draft Winner
Posts: 23,772

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Originally posted by mayo49:
Originally posted by OsBoogie:
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I'm with flynhayn. If you believe in picking BPA, there are 4 OTs better than any of the WRs in this draft. WR is a bigger position of need, but it's a position we can address later in the draft.

Good luck finding a future starting LT at 31 this year or 32 next year. WR is a bigger need right now but won't be in the future.

I do not agree with this at all. Can 4 OT's go before them? Sure. Are they better prospects? Nope. You might have an argument for one or two. Not 4 OT's graded higher than Jeudy or Lamb

Yeah, all 3 WRs have a higher grade than your OTs.
CBS has them:
1. Willis
2. Lamb
3. Wirfs
4. Becton
5. Jeudy
6. Ruggs
7. Thomas

You can make a strong argument Thomas is underrated on a lot of big boards. Wirfs and Becton are consistently mocked ahead of any of the WRs and Willis is the highest ranked OL on many boards. Betting lines show all four OTs are favored to get drafted earlier than any of the WRs. They play a more valuable position. None of these WRs are on Amari Cooper's level as a prospect (he was Jeudy but 20 pounds heavier coming out) let alone elite prospects like Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones.

Oddshark odds put the O/U for them as follows:
OTs:
Wirfs: Most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 8.5)
Becton: 8.5
Willis: 3rd most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 10.5)
Thomas: 10.5
WRs:
Jeudy: 12.5
Lamb: 12.5
Ruggs: 15.5

NFL teams don't value WRs as much as OTs, edge and QBs who all get "over drafted" to the public

Mar 30, 2020 at 9:42 AM

#243

OsBoogie
Veteran
Posts: 887

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
CBS has them:
1. Willis
2. Lamb
3. Wirfs
4. Becton
5. Jeudy
6. Ruggs
7. Thomas

You can make a strong argument Thomas is underrated on a lot of big boards. Wirfs and Becton are consistently mocked ahead of any of the WRs and Willis is the highest ranked OL on many boards. Betting lines show all four OTs are favored to get drafted earlier than any of the WRs. They play a more valuable position. None of these WRs are on Amari Cooper's level as a prospect (he was Jeudy but 20 pounds heavier coming out) let alone elite prospects like Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones.

Oddshark odds put the O/U for them as follows:
OTs:
Wirfs: Most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 8.5)
Becton: 8.5
Willis: 3rd most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 10.5)
Thomas: 10.5
WRs:
Jeudy: 12.5
Lamb: 12.5
Ruggs: 15.5

Mocks and Big Boards are completely different. As I stated, can 4 OT's go ahead of all the WRs? yes. Are they graded higher? No. This is what you need to stop confusing.

Mar 30, 2020 at 9:49 AM

#244

mayo49
Veteran
Posts: 65,216

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by OsBoogie:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I'm with flynhayn. If you believe in picking BPA, there are 4 OTs better than any of the WRs in this draft. WR is a bigger position of need, but it's a position we can address later in the draft.

Good luck finding a future starting LT at 31 this year or 32 next year. WR is a bigger need right now but won't be in the future.

I do not agree with this at all. Can 4 OT's go before them? Sure. Are they better prospects? Nope. You might have an argument for one or two. Not 4 OT's graded higher than Jeudy or Lamb

Yeah, all 3 WRs have a higher grade than your OTs.
CBS has them:
1. Willis
2. Lamb
3. Wirfs
4. Becton
5. Jeudy
6. Ruggs
7. Thomas

You can make a strong argument Thomas is underrated on a lot of big boards. Wirfs and Becton are consistently mocked ahead of any of the WRs and Willis is the highest ranked OL on many boards. Betting lines show all four OTs are favored to get drafted earlier than any of the WRs. They play a more valuable position. None of these WRs are on Amari Cooper's level as a prospect (he was Jeudy but 20 pounds heavier coming out) let alone elite prospects like Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones.

Oddshark odds put the O/U for them as follows:
OTs:
Wirfs: Most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 8.5)
Becton: 8.5
Willis: 3rd most likely to be top OT selected, but no O/U listed (at worst 10.5)
Thomas: 10.5
WRs:
Jeudy: 12.5
Lamb: 12.5
Ruggs: 15.5

I only see Wirfs taken, before the top 3 receivers

Mar 30, 2020 at 9:55 AM

#245

OsBoogie
Veteran
Posts: 887

Originally posted by mayo49:
I only see Wirfs taken, before the top 3 receivers

I actually think 3 or maybe 4 will go before any WR. That's not because they are better prospects however.

Most teams picking this high are generally bad teams and building the trenches is more important first.

[ Edited by OsBoogie on Mar 30, 2020 at 9:56 AM ]

Mar 30, 2020 at 10:07 AM

#246

random49er
Veteran
Posts: 14,815

Originally posted by mayo49:
Yeah, all 3 WRs have a higher grade than your OTs.

Higher grades,...higher risks as well (this is inherent). 1st round OTs bust alot less. So it's a balancing act.

Heck...we would take the top corner of the draft in a heartbeat @ 13 even given the more-limited impact they may have in games compared to OTs, Linemen, and WRs,... all for the security of knowing we probably have a lockdown corner for 4-5 years. He won't be there, though.

Mar 30, 2020 at 10:36 AM

#247

Ice49er
Veteran
Posts: 289

What's the rush to get a OT with Staley and Richburg on the roster. 2021draft is absolutely loaded at OT.

Mar 30, 2020 at 10:55 AM

#248

English
Moderator
Posts: 41,368

Originally posted by Ice49er:
What's the rush to get a OT with Staley and Richburg on the roster. 2021draft is absolutely loaded at OT.

Well, Staley will be 36 by the time the season gets underway. From the depth, Coleman missed all last season with injury, Skule was not entirely convincing, although he may develop, and Brunskill may be moved inside to cover the weakness at guard. I don't like the idea of drafting OT and throwing them straight in the fire.

As to the 2021 draft, it is like a mirage. The following year's draft is always excellent. It's only when it gets nearer!

Mar 30, 2020 at 12:04 PM

#249

ChuckLeavy32
Veteran
Posts: 1,229

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by Ice49er:
What's the rush to get a OT with Staley and Richburg on the roster. 2021draft is absolutely loaded at OT.

Well, Staley will be 36 by the time the season gets underway. From the depth, Coleman missed all last season with injury, Skule was not entirely convincing, although he may develop, and Brunskill may be moved inside to cover the weakness at guard. I don't like the idea of drafting OT and throwing them straight in the fire.

As to the 2021 draft, it is like a mirage. The following year's draft is always excellent. It's only when it gets nearer!

Now compare that to the WR depth/position and tell me which is worse? Do you not remember games prior to Sanders?

Mar 30, 2020 at 12:06 PM

#250

mayo49
Veteran
Posts: 65,216

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by Ice49er:
What's the rush to get a OT with Staley and Richburg on the roster. 2021draft is absolutely loaded at OT.

Well, Staley will be 36 by the time the season gets underway. From the depth, Coleman missed all last season with injury, Skule was not entirely convincing, although he may develop, and Brunskill may be moved inside to cover the weakness at guard. I don't like the idea of drafting OT and throwing them straight in the fire.

As to the 2021 draft, it is like a mirage. The following year's draft is always excellent. It's only when it gets nearer!

Next year should be stacked at OT - this year is for a WR1 and a DT in the first round.

[ Edited by mayo49 on Mar 30, 2020 at 12:10 PM ]

Mar 30, 2020 at 12:13 PM

#251

OsBoogie
Veteran
Posts: 887

Originally posted by mayo49:
Next year should be stacked at OT - this year is for a WR1 and a DT in the first round.

It's not a strong DT class IMO

Mar 30, 2020 at 12:15 PM

#252

DoseOfBosa
Veteran
Posts: 596

Originally posted by Ice49er:
What's the rush to get a OT with Staley and Richburg on the roster. 2021draft is absolutely loaded at OT.

I agree, I'd save LT for next year

if Staley gets hurt this year we have Skule who played OK as a rookie and Coleman who the coaching staff is high on

Mar 30, 2020 at 12:28 PM

#253

mayo49
Veteran
Posts: 65,216

Originally posted by OsBoogie:

Originally posted by mayo49:
Next year should be stacked at OT - this year is for a WR1 and a DT in the first round.

It's not a strong DT class IMO

Yeah, it's not - but, one of the top 3 DTs should be there possibly at #31.

Mar 30, 2020 at 12:35 PM

#254

OsBoogie
Veteran
Posts: 887

Originally posted by mayo49:
Yeah, it's not - but, one of the top 3 DTs should be there possibly at #31.

that's not saying much. big gap between 2 and 3. In most drafts, is that guy a 1st rounder? or a 2nd that gets pushed up because of supply/demand?

Mar 30, 2020 at 1:04 PM

#255

adrianlesnar
Veteran
Posts: 6,466

Taking tackle now has the potential to kill two birds with one stone; guard and LT of the future.

Taking a tackle now means we don't have to throw a rookie into the fire next year.

Taking a tackle now means that we can take another one next year if dude doesn't appear to pan out.

And I can guarantee you with 100% certainty that next year you are all going to fall in love a new prospect and think "damnit I wish we could draft this guy, but we can't because we need a tackle!". If all goes correctly, we won't have a pick this high to take this caliber of prospect for a long while. Take the WR, OT, DT, I don't care, just don't pigeon hole yourself, and get a stud. If you would not trade #13 overall for Emmanuel Sanders, he cannot be your argument for taking a WR in that spot to replace him