Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
I remember really hoping we'd draft Keyarris Garrett. Then he went undrafted, got picked up by the WR needy Panthers and I never heard about him again.
Starting to view the draft like baseball. Everyone fails more than they succeed. No one is batting 1000. But the difference between winning and losing is the difference between batting 330 and batting 275. It doesn't seem that big but it is. Or in draft terms... the difference between teams who regularly hit on three guys in the draft and teams who hit on two guys is huge.
That being said, picking a Buckner in a draft pretty much nails it for me. Anything else like Blair is just bonus.
My current take is that what you're really looking for from each draft is 3 players. Something like this:
1 grade A player - a stud, or at least a guy who can definitively own a starting role and consistently play it at a high level
2 grade B players - guys who are clearly worth keeping and can play at a starter level
I will admit, that I am kind of making this up as I go. So please, take this as a thought exercise about what successful drafting means, not as me trying to state fact. But it seems to me that this kind of your bar for maintaining a good, winning roster. Get less than 3 once and you'll probably be fine, but if you get less than that year after year the team will be lacking in talent.
On the other hand, if you get that kind of return regularly and then have a year when you get more than that, that's the kind of thing that springboards championship teams.
Looking back for the 9ers I would assess their yearly draft hauls like this:
2010 - 2 As (Iupati, Bowman), 2 Bs (Davis, Dixon)
2011 - 2 As (Aldon, Kap), 2 Bs (Kilgore, Miller) (this draft is super awkward to judge because Aldon and Kap were clear As for a bit but didn't last)
2012 - zero
2013 - 2 Bs (Reid and McDonald)
2014 - 1 B (Hyde)
2015 - zero (I'm not counting Brown because the team did not think he was worth keeping, and Amstead and Tartt as also not definite keepers)
2016 - 1 A (Buckner)
2017 - 1 A (Kittle), 1 B (DJ Jones)
2018 - 1 A (McGlinchy), 2 Bs (Warner and Pettis) (this one could still change, obviously, but right now this is how I would grade it)
I went all the way back to 2010 to illustrate how significant the impact is when you get more than 3 vs getting less than 3 guys. We got 4 A or B players in back to back years and then went to the superbowl! Then we had 5 years in a row of fewer than 3 and we turned into one of worst teams in the league. Obviously coaching, FA signings and key positions have a big impact as well. But I think the connection between draft success and team success is clear.
So the good news is that they are clearly trending in the right direction! Here's to hoping this year yields us 3 players
* Note to English: You'll notice that I did not include Blair. While I agree, getting a decent rotation player is a bonus, and those bonuses add up, guys like that are not the difference makers you're looking for. Maybe for thoroughness I should have made a distinction between C players (what I call back up/rotation players that aren't terrible but are always on the bubble) and F players (all those guys that can't even make the team after a year). But I really think the real difference to a team is with the A and B players.
I would agree with all of this. One huge issue is that we haven't drafted a serious offensive playmaker in the last 8 years.