Trying to figure out who the 49ers will draft based on need positions to start

DynastyPart2 · 2019-04-22T20:14:23-07:00

After reading that Lynch and Shanahan have less players on their big board based on less needs to fill out the roster and a decrease need to find starters, I thought I would look at each position and try and find those draftees that could start on our roster if drafted. First, let's delineate which positions I don't think any draftees will start: QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens Although Murry is an exciting prospect, I dont think he would start over either Garoppolo or Mullens. Easiest position to filter in my opinion. RB: Coleman, McKinnon, Breida By many draft experts, this running back class is weak for the RB position and the only 1st round candidate, Josh Jacobs would have a hard time unseating Coleman or Breida. McKinnon is really an unknown, but I was excited about him last year and I am still excited to see what he can do in a Shanahan offense. T: Staley and McGlinchey will not be unseated by any rookie this season, could the 49ers use some depth, yes. RDT (3T): Buckner is better than Quinnen Williams right now, this doesnt mean that QW couldnt be drafted to play next to Buckner, but he's not going to put Buckner on the bench to play 3T. RDE: Ford will be our starting RDE and like Buckner, a rookie is not going to put Ford on the bench. Now, this in no way means that the 49ers can't use another edge rusher, in fact I feel this is one of our greatest needs, but that player would play LDE on passing downs. LCB: This is somewhat debatable, Sherman isnt getting any younger but he played at a high level for the 49ers despite not being 100% healthy. Is Greedy or Byron better than Sherman? I wont get into any debates regarding that. I do, however feel that all othe defensive backfield positions can and should be upgraded. WLB: I know we spent a ton on Kwon, but the 49ers had to over pay to get a quality WLB to fill the void left by the departure of Foster. But, other than the early first round Devin's, I dont think there are any MLB rookies that will put Kwon on the bench. I dont feel that the 49ers will look to upgrade either the WLB or MLB positions. It could be debated if Devin White could unseat Kwon, it's not as debatable that this woild be a poor draft decision to take White at #2 overall. So, with the 49ers first three picks, I doubt that the 49ers look to upgrade any of these positions. Now let's look at all the other positions that I feel could potentially be upgraded with a rookie. WR: On offense, it could easily be argued that WR is the biggest area of a needed upgrade. There are several rookies that would start on the 49ers regardless of the X, Z or slot positions. G/C: This is the first time in a while that the 49ers will be returning the same starting lineup in consecutive years. Although the interior is not great, they were serviceable and with a healthy Garoppolo, Coleman, McKinnon, Breida, Kittle, there should be an improvement in our oline play. But there are a couple of Oline rookies who I feel could upgrade the position and possibly start over both G positions. TE: Other than Kittle, there isnt anyone that scares defensive coordinators. Do we need two number one TE's? It worked for New England when Gronk and Hernandez were both young and not in jail. Although I feel the 49ers could find a starter over Celek, I dont feel they will address this in the first three rounds, but one could argue that having two elite TE's could be a formidable offensive strategy. LDE: On passing downs, the 49ers certainly need to upgrade this position and there are more than a couple of rookies who could start on this team at that position. LDT: DJ Jones is a decent run defender, but he offers minimal pass rushing ability. There are also more than a few rookies who could start at this position. SLB: Malcolm Smith has not lived up to his FA pricetag by a long shot and I am not convinced he plays much this year either. The 49ers could upgrade is position, but im not certain they will address this position in the first 3 rounds unless there is a trade that nets them two 2nds or tow 3rds. SS: Tartt, Exum and Harris could be replaced by a rookie, but will the 49ers use their draft capital on a SS? I dont think so. FS: Many of us fans strongly believe this position needs to be upgraded in this draft since the front office failed to upgrade in the offseason. RCB: Another position that many of us feel needs to be upgraded. There were not any real good candidates in FA this offseason, but other than the first round, will there be any starter qualit CBs in the draft, im not so sure. So, to review, the following positions need an upgrade at the starting position: (In no particular order) WR G/C LDE LDT SLB SS FS RCB That's eight positions that need/could be upgraded by a rookie. Lynch is not going to be able to find eight starters, even if he can trade down and get more picks. The chances of finding starters after the first round decrease significantly. I have heard statistically the odds decrease to 30-40% in the second round and 20-30% in the third round. So, to try and have a better chance at guessing who Lynch/Shanahan might target, I think we need to determine which three positions need to be upgraded the most in positions where a rookie could start. This is where fans have debated quite a bit, but I will say that the positions that need to starters in order of importance are: 1. WR: Right now, our best WR is Marquise Goodwin. Pettis is still an unknown but many feel he is best suited as a #2 WR. So since we have no clear #1 WR and our #2/3 WRs both have injury concerns, it is a very strong consideration that WR is our highest priority to upgrade in this draft. I will look at the value of positions later. I don't think anyone is advocating that the 49ers take a WR at number 2. 2. FS: I could have easily picked LCB over FS, but with the pick up of Jason Varrett and periods of good/decent play from Witherspoon, I feel that FS is a bigger need because Ward, even when healthy, is not a good FS. I still have no idea what this staff sees in Ward. Exum and Harris are gap stoppers. 3. RCB: I would like to see an upgrade at our RCB position, but again looking at value, where do the 49ers upgrade this position and can it be upgraded with a starter? 4. SLB: I think there is a bigger need to upgrade Malcolm Smith than there is to upgrade Armstead/Thomas, but again, value at the pick will need to be determined. 5. LDE: The 49ers value Armstead enough to pick up his 5th year option, but his value as a pass rusher is not at the level of what he is getting paid. 6. LDT: I understand the arguments that QW is not a nose tackle and his skill set would be wasted in our base defense. I think if we drafted QW, I think Saleh and Kocurek will find plenty of ways to get him on the field. Now, to try and further determine who Lynch/Shanahan are targetting, we need to look at value at each pick. #2. It would be a shock if the Cardinals don't take Murray at #1, so I will assume that all the other top rookies are going to be available for Lynch. Here are the following rookies that could be starters for the 49ers at a value position. So, although I have WR as the 49ers biggest need, there are no WR worth the 2nd pick in the draft. Here are the rookies I think have the best value as a #2 overall pick regardless of need: 1. Nick Bosa 2. Quinnen Williams 3. Josh Allen 4. Devin White 5. Ed Oliver #36. Back to the biggest need, WR. But, keeping value in mind, Lynch simply cannot reach for a WR over another rookie that is a better prospect. Again, keeping in mind that I am only picking rookies who I feel would start. Here are the rookies I feel are a good value at #36 as well as those who I reasonably feel could be available. I am not going to put a rookie here who is not within range (+/- 2 to 5 picks) of the 49ers pick: 1. AJ Brown 2. N'Keal Harry 3. Deebo Samuel 4. Dalton Risner (I think he could start over Person or Tomlinson) 5. Riley Ridley 6. Darnell Savage (he is not going to fall to the 3rd round) 7. Chris Lindstrom 8. JJ Arcega-Whiteside 9. Parris Campbell 10. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson 11. Hakeem Butler 12. Julian Love Lynch could address either the WR, FS, RCB or G position at #36. As much as I would love to get AJ Brown at 36, I am not convinced he will be available without a trade up, same goes with N'Keal Harry. So, if both those receivers are gone, does Lynch take Risner or Savage over JJAW or Ridley? We can only guess at what his big board looks like. #67: At this point in the draft, I think all the starting quality receivers will be gone. Lynch could take a flyer on a WR like Terry McLaurin or Jalen Hurd, but I'm not sure they start over Goodwin or Pettis. So, if Lynch is going to find a starter at #67, I think he is going to have to get a WR with #36 and address other positions to start here at 67. Here are a few players within range who could start: 1. Juan Thornhill 2. Lonnie Johnson 3. Jace Sternberger 4. Connor McGovern 5. Dru Samia 6. Nate Davis 7. Michael Deiter So, based on this information, I would think Lynch would love to draft Bosa, AJ Brown and Juan Thornhill. Other than Bosa, I am not certain that Brown or Thornhill will be available without a trade up. My ideal draft would be this. Realistically, I think it will be Bosa, Samuel, Deiter/Sternberger. * I based the player positions/values from Daniel Jeremiah's latest top 100 draft rankings. Thanks for reading and I hope this helps any of those who are looking to create their own mock draft. And of course, I look forward to any and all feedback, comments or criticisms.

Apr 22, 2019 at 10:34 PM

91til
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Great post and ditto to your dream draft

Apr 23, 2019 at 2:19 AM

English
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Interesting post, good work.

Apr 23, 2019 at 2:21 AM

49erBigMac
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Posts: 8,045

A nice and detailed breakdown, can't find many faults with what you've written, I do however think there is more chance of finding a starting WR still available at #67 than it is to find a Safety.

I agree that adding an OL would be good, but I don't see many good enough who'll be available, I love Lindstrom but don't think he makes it to #36, I like Risner and Dieter and they might be available at selected slots, but as you've pointed out we'd then struggle to fill WR & Safety.

I can see either a trade back from #36 or trade up from #67.

Apr 23, 2019 at 4:28 AM

Garoppolis
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Posts: 377

Well done, you clearly put some thought into this.

I think there's very little chance that Juan Thornhill falls all the way to 67. I see him as an early second rounder who could easily slip into the end of the first. I mean, I'd love to get him at 67, I just don't think it will happen.

I also think they need to come out of this draft with an edge rusher. Dee Ford is a great addition, but they need more than one, and this draft is well stocked at the position, so they can't ignore it. It's more likely IMO that a good receiver falls to 67 than it is that a good FS is there, although I will be happy if the Niners get an impact receiver at 36. I doubt they fill all their holes in this draft.

Apr 23, 2019 at 5:13 AM

DynastyPart2
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Posts: 3,312

Yes I agree that finding a FS that can play single high will be difficult to find in the 3rd. My hope is that most teams will covet a FS to play two high and that favors guys like Rapp, CJG, Abram, Thompson and Adderley. There are only two FS in this clas that seem to have the instincts and speed to play single high, and that is Savage and Thornhill.

It all depends on what Lynch has higher on his big board. It almost feels like a smokescreen with all the WRs the 49ers have brought in. As much as we need a WR, I think it's harder to find a good FS.

I can't wait for Thursday!

Apr 23, 2019 at 9:01 AM

captainhook
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Good post. Very realistic. The reality is that unless 1st, 2nd and 3rd year players have breakout seasons it will be impossible to fill all the holes.

Apr 25, 2019 at 5:16 AM

mrwoodz
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Posts: 196

I think it's a good breakdown, and I know pre draft visits aren't necessarily to be trusted, but it's easy to see us try and manoeuvre to pick EDGE, WR, TE and CB in 1st 2 days.

I rate safety a higher need than CB but the leaks pre draft seem to suggest the team have CB higher.

Apr 25, 2019 at 5:51 AM

eastcoast49ersfan
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Posts: 4,112

Plenty of potential starting WRs will be available in round 3. This is an unbelievably deep WR class. Guys like Arcega-Whiteside, Deebo Samuel, Emmanuel Hall, or Kelvin Harmon could be available as well as Miles Boykin who has similar measurables to Julio Jones. I'd also be happy taking a flyer on McLaurin. There are too many good WRs for none of them to be available in round 3.