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Draft board composition

miked1978 · 2018-05-01T09:18:03-07:00

Every year I keep up with about 12-15 big boards from different draftniks such as Mel Kiper, Matt Miller, Josh Norris, NDTscouting, PFF, Gill Brandt, etc. I average all the rankings up and this average gives me an idea where each player may go. I like to do at least 12 big boards so no one's big board will throw off the average by too much. I've been doing this for 5 years now and on average each year only 8 players have a top 10 average and 77% of the time those players actually get drafted in the top 10. What is surprising to me is the players who have a top 32 average, have a 81% hit rate on getting drafted in the first round. Obviously the draft is a crapshoot and each team ranks players different based on scheme fit, need, etc So with that said here are the 49ers picks with their big board average and some highs and lows from different big boards mixed in. 9. Mike McGlinchey average was 22. High of 8 (Mayock) and low of 39 (NFL.com) 44. Dante Pettis average was 79. High of 57 (NFL.com) and low of 155 (CBS) 70. Fred Warner average was 103. High of 34 (NDTScouts) and low of 218 (DraftTek) 95. Tarvarius Moore average of 104. High of 54 (PFF) and low of 145 (DraftTek) 128. Kentavious Street average of 156. High of 77 (Walter Football) and low of 252 (nfl.com) 142. DJ Reed average of 155 184. Marcell Harris average of 329 223. Julian Taylore average of 178 240. Richie James average of 204 UDFA. Tarvaus McFadden Average of 130 So our biggest early round reach was Dante Pettis. Obviously our coaching staff liked him a lot and who knows if other teams did. He's a player they felt they needed to move up and get so they did. I was listening to the KC Chiefs GM on the radio last night and he talked about how the Chiefs traded up for Breeland Speaks at #46 but his average according to the board I have was 123. It just goes to show you never know where these teams have these players ranked. You can argue we reached on Street but not so much according to his average. Macell Harris was our biggest reach according to the board but by the time you get to the 6th and 7th rounds who cares!!! Now before you go off and feel bad that we "reached" for some of the players check out some notable "reaches" by other teams in the first couple rounds: 28. Terrell Edmunds average of 120 (biggest 1st round reach) 36. Darius Leonard average of 97 46. Breeland Speaks average of 123. (They even traded up for him) 57. PJ Hall average of 194 (biggest 2nd round reach) 64. Tyquan Lewis average of 142 82. Trey Walker average of 242 (biggest reach of the first 3 rounds according to my list) It's important to keep in mind these boards are rating ALL DRAFTABLE players. They don't care if your team is an outside zone blocking team, 3-4 or a 4-3 defense. They also don't take players off their draft boards like NFL teams do. The people who put these boards together don't have access to medical records and player interviews so they have no idea a player could be flagged for a medical issue or if a player like D. Guice had an incident during the an interview. The best values in the first 2 rounds were: 59. Derrius Guice average was 22 45. Josh Jackson average was 21 58. Isiah Oliver average was 39 50. Connor Williams average was 31 41. Harold Landry average was 23 The best values in the entire draft was: 207. Equanimeous St. Brown average was 97 140. Maurice Hurst average was 30 Most of the time the "value" picks are players most teams have taken off their draft board completely. We all knew M Hurst had a heart issue that was flagged but I'm not sure what happened to E St. Brown???

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May 1, 2018 at 10:07 AM

Lobo49er
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Posts: 4,289

Awesome post, thanks for the info. Really neat to see.

I think you've got M. hurst's average the same as his actual.

May 1, 2018 at 10:51 AM

miked1978
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Posts: 12,578

Originally posted by Lobo49er:
Awesome post, thanks for the info. Really neat to see.

I think you've got M. hurst's average the same as his actual.

Thanks. I fixed it.

May 1, 2018 at 10:55 AM

miked1978
Veteran
Posts: 12,578

I just went back and looked at team needs to see if a team drafted BPA or went with a major need and its about 50/50. Of course its subjective depending on who you are talking to regarding a need but I tried to keep needs down to 3 positions for each team.

That's what really throws off mock drafts. Most mocks are based on team needs and schemes. No one really predicted the Browns taking Ward at #4 over Chubb.

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