MadDog49er Combine Primer

MadDog49er · 2018-02-27T09:59:22-08:00

Shaking the frost off of February, let's jump into draft season. This weekend begins the annual combine, for some called the Underwear Olympics. While some of the events can be easily mocked for its sensationalism (a DT's 10 yard is split is 100% more important than his 40 time), there are many things to be learned from these outstanding athletes in this important weekend. This is my personal draft primer, with numbers as barometers for success. I will go through some of the main players, and what should be critical numbers for them. Marcus Davenport- a sub 4.65 forty and sub-7.00 3 cone- A sure-fire first rounder, Davenport can keep the momentum going. He was easily the most dominating player in the Senior Bowl game, which followed a week of steady improvement, as he jumped into better competition. One of the big questions is his change of direction skills. The field drills will be closely examined to see if he is limited to moving forward, and not in coverage. If he hits these benchmark numbers, and looks sharp in drills, he will be in play for the first 10 picks. The upside is off the charts. Vita Vea- a sub 5.00 forty- This year's dancing bear, Vea could blow up the combine by running a sub 5.00 forty time. He is already a fantastic run stuffer, and pretty good at generating pressure in passing downs. Vea should look remarkable in his on the field drills with his quick and smooth feet. He will be one of the stories of the combine and will surely be superimposed on Rich Eisen's forty run. Orlando Brown- a sub 7.75 3 cone, and vertical of 28+"- Brown was the most impressive of the OT's in this draft class on game film this year. He is so long, and engulfs edge rushers with his size. Moving forward, he simply pulverizes opponents. The biggest question mark is his athleticism, the ability to bend, change directions, explode. The posted measurables are important for an athletic big man to hit. If he can do so, and look sharp changing directions in field drills, he is play with the Browns at number 4 overall. If he lacks athleticism, his value implodes as a move to RT looks like his only hope in the NFL. UPDATE: Brown recorded one of the worst combines in the history of the combine, running close to 6 seconds, lifting 14 times, and vertical leaping less than 20". Really poor performance, showing a complete lack of NFL athleticism. Connor Williams- 34" arms- Williams was one of the better college tackles, but I think length is his biggest question mark. I don't see a guy with long limbs here, and that might push him inside in the NFL. The benchmark length for an OT is 34", and few under that number are quality starters in the NFL. Call me a skeptic, but I see Brandon Scherff all over again in Williams. Scherff measured in with 33 3/8" arms and got shoved inside by the Redskins. Williams needs to show at least 34" vines to keep him in play as a top 15 pick. UPDATE: Williams only measured in at 33" arm length, which effectively ends his run as an OT. He will be pushed inside to guard. Very disappointing for a really solid player, but someone who will be super athletic inside for an NFL team. Will challenge Q. Nelson as the first guard off the board on draft day. Bradley Chubb- Sub 4.80 forty- This would be a good time for a 275 DL. If Chubb wants to lock in a top 5 pick, he needs to post a solid time here, He has everything going for him, with a well-rounded game and good height/weight/strength measurables. Maurice Hurst- 290+ pounds- Hurst was a remarkable DT for Michigan, but his playing weight was a big concern at around 280 pounds. If he can tip the scales at 290+, this would alleviate a lot of concerns from teams who love the player but see potential issues with his transition to the NFL. UPDATE: Hurst weighed in at 292 pounds. Big boost for him. Roquan Smith- 230+ pounds. Just like Hurst, Smith has size concerns at the MLB position at under 230 pounds. If he can post a weight in the 230s, this would help scouts and GMs feel better about selecting him in the top 10 picks, as he would have positional versatility between OLB and MLB. UPDATE: Smith weighed in at 236 pounds, shocking more than R. Evans at 232. Saquon Barkley- Sub 4.50 forty- Barkley should be a combine darling, as his off the charts athleticism in running, jumping, and hands drills should stand out. The only question is his long speed. Barkley's forty time should be one of the highlights of the combine, and possibly the most anticipated moment as well. If he posts a sub 4.50 forty, which is a blazing for a 225+ pound RB, he could end up the first overall pick. UPDATE: Barkley ran an unofficial 4.41. Checking off boxes left and right. Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield- Interviews- All the QBs are expected to throw at the combine, and all have strong enough arms to compete in the NFL. The posted forty times, vertical, and long jump will not matter for these guys. It all comes down to interviews, white board time with coaches and GMs, and the impression they leave. I think this puts Darnold and Allen in the driver seat as clean prospects who come across well, and don't have any perceivable red flags. Denzel Ward- 5'10"- Ward is listed at 5'10", and is probably the first CB off the board. However, if he measures in at 5'9 1/.2", he could drop to the latter part of the first round and get leapfogged by a taller CB like J. Jackson, C. Davis, or M. Hughes No doubt Ward is going to run fast, probably a sub 4.40 forty. But, a sub 5'10" measurement is a tough pill to swallow. UPDATE: Ward measured in at 5'10 7/8". A huge boost for him, especially since Mike Hughes was measured at 5'10 1/8". Courtland Sutton, Allen Lazard, Equanimeous St. Brown, Marcell Ateman- Sub 4.60 times- All of these tall, long-limb WRs have the physical measurables that teams want. The question is, Can they run? A time in the 4.5s would keep all of these guys in good position to be drafted where they are currently projected. My fear? Alan Lazard runs in the 4.7s. Who will be the big winner? DJ Chalk. He is similar in height but should run in the low 4.4s, much faster than this group. UPDATE: Chalk did burn up the track with a 4.34 forty, while Ateman ran slow (4.62). Lazard (4.55), Sutton (4.55 unofficial) and St. Brown (4.48 unofficial) all ran faster than I expected. Lazard looked really sluggish on field drills. Anthony Miller- Sub 4.5 forty- Miller was hyper-productive at Memphis, but is perceived to be far less athletic and quick compared to Christian Kirk and James Washington, player who are similarly sized. If Miller posts a slow forty time, he may be looked upon as exclusively a slot WR, which lowers his value. The comparison between these guys will be key. Arden Key- Sub 4.70 forty and sub 1.60 ten yard split- Key has really dropped off the radar after a solid 2016-2017 year. On tape, he was not impressive in 2017. He needs to regain the lost momentum from this past year. If he does not rebound well, I can see a slide all the way to the 3rd round in this draft. Ronald Jones- 210+ pounds- Teams are going to be really tempted to make Jones the second RB taken in this draft because of his quickness and versatility. At 200 pounds, these RBs are generally only seen a change of pace backs, not guys who carry the ball 20 times a game. UPDATE: Jones came in at 205 pounds, which is a move in the right direction. Still needs more weight to carry a heavier load. Harold Landry- 6'2", Sub 4.75 time, Field Drills- Landry was an outstanding college football player, but does have skeptics out there. Is he 6'2"? If shorter, yikes!!! Can he drop into coverage? He didn't do that much at BC. How fast is he? If he runs in the 4.8s, this will be a big problem. Landry has a lot of question marks to solve for teams this weekend. I think some are unresolved and this pushes him to the second round. Rashaan Evans- Sub 7.00 3 cone drill, Field drills- Everyone knows that Evans is one of the most aggressive, dynamic downhill playmakers in this draft. He is a violent, smash mouth player. However, can he cover? We rarely saw him do anything in reverse at Bama, and that is what he needs to show scouts and GMs, Can he run sideline to sideline? Can he drop into coverage? The 3 cone and field drills will help us see what he's got beyond knocking people's heads off. Tremaine Edmunds- Interview, 3 cone, and field drills- One of the more athletic LBs in this draft is Edmunds, who is a baby at 19 years of age. He is tall, has great range, and is a very good pass rusher. Excellent tackler. All the physical traits are there, and I expect him to run in the mid 4.6s and jump 37+". Since he spent nearly all nickel downs rushing the QB, I think teams want to see how he will fare in reverse. The field drills will be critical. More importantly, does the kid have it upstairs? He's got heart, but his instincts and field awareness are shaky. Does he have the maturity to play with the big boys. It is a man's league, and he is going to have to grow up quickly. Predicted combine winners? Barkley, Lamar Jackson (rocket arm and speed, speed, speed), Vita Vea, Tavon Bryan (physical freak), Roquan Smith (who is going to move like him?), DJ Chark, Calvin Ridley (he's a pro already in his approach), Q. Nelson (see note on Ridley); L. Vander Esch (Physical freak); Josey Jewell (watch the 3 cone time...it will be great); Darius Leonard (on-the-field drills will be better than many safeties). Village Idiot Award: The 2016 winner was KC Chiefs DT Chris Jones who had his man unit fall out during the 40 yard dash; The 2017 Winner was our very own Reuben Foster, who thought it was wise to get into a argument with a hospital worker, and had to be kicked out of the hospital. This year's genius? I predict OT Desmond Harrison, who has a special talent for doing dumb things. The combine is ripe and ready for him to join Jones and Foster as village idiots for a weekend. Runner up: Josh Rosen- He is a gold medal winner in rubbing people the wrong way, and he will get a boatload of opportunities to turn people off. Sam Darnold is going to look like Mother Teresa after clubs meet Rosen. There are more notes I will add in the next couple days, but these highlight a few guys to really watch in specific areas of concern. With all due respect to Fergie, "Let's play some football".

Feb 27, 2018 at 10:21 AM

mayo49
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Nice work, Mad - will be another interesting draft season this year. Glad your with us again this year.

Feb 27, 2018 at 10:28 AM

riverrunzthruit
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Woof! been waiting for the Dog to join the party

Feb 27, 2018 at 10:31 AM

Dillesq
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Just one note, Darnold isn't throwing at the combine.

Feb 27, 2018 at 10:31 AM

Nastastical
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I'll be pulling for guys like Jackson, James, Brown and Sutton, to all kill the combine. I want anyone that I know we won't draft to destroy it out there so it forces someone to grab them in the top 10 in front of us, or even trade up with us to secure them.

Feb 27, 2018 at 10:44 AM

rivercity
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Surprised not to see Tremaine Edmunds on this first list. thoughts? I imagine you saying something about athleticism vs. lack of instincts.

Feb 27, 2018 at 11:03 AM

MadDog49er
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Originally posted by Dillesq:
Just one note, Darnold isn't throwing at the combine.

Looks like this just dropped a few hours ago. Too bad.

Feb 27, 2018 at 11:03 AM

49erBigMac
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Thanks MD, nice one

Feb 27, 2018 at 11:04 AM

MadDog49er
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Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by riverrunzthruit:
Woof! been waiting for the Dog to join the party

Watching a LOT of football and digesting it all. Working on the fat guys on offense right now

Feb 27, 2018 at 11:12 AM

lbc49er
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Good stuff. Thanks.

Feb 27, 2018 at 11:18 AM

#10

pasodoc9er
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Posts: 21,040

Village idiot award...MD, you are too much. Great stat lines to watch, tho. Thanks man. Took a lot of work and we all appreciate it.

Oh, the Rosen comment was spot on but funny as all get out. Word on the street is he didn't decide to declare, the team decided it for him.

[ Edited by pasodoc9er on Feb 27, 2018 at 11:19 AM ]

Feb 27, 2018 at 11:29 AM

#11

riverrunzthruit
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Originally posted by rivercity:
Surprised not to see Tremaine Edmunds on this first list. thoughts? I imagine you saying something about athleticism vs. lack of instincts.

For sure, would like your assessment on him MD...

Is he going to be our SAM on base downs, and then move to LEO in $0.05 and $0.10??

[ Edited by riverrunzthruit on Feb 27, 2018 at 11:30 AM ]

Feb 27, 2018 at 11:41 AM

#12

Memphis9er
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Hey MadDog, what's your take on John Kelly, the running back from Tennessee?

Feb 27, 2018 at 12:08 PM

#13

49erKing
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Oooohhhhhh Yyyyeaaaahhhhh BBaaaaabbby!

Feb 27, 2018 at 12:11 PM

#14

Bellaleo
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Thank you for the write up MD excellent stuff. I'm curious how good can D.James be. I know we don't NEED a S but I can't get over how good he looks as a prospect. Curious what your thoughts on him are