How NFL teams missed on Dak Prescott.

Phoenix49ers · 2016-10-29T11:08:05-07:00

Good read. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2672393-why-everyone-missed-on-dak-prescott FRISCO, Texas — On the Cowboys' draft board last spring was a magnetic card. Printed in big, bold letters: PRESCOTT, DAK. Underneath the name, in smaller type: Mississippi State. Farther down, on one side of the card, a box with six grades in small print: one assigned by the scouting director, two by scouts, one by the head coach, one by the offensive coordinator and one by the quarterbacks coach. On the other side of the card, his height ("6022", or 6'2 2/10"), weight ("226" pounds), 40-yard dash speed ("4.74" seconds), arm length ("32 ¼") and hand size ("10"). In large type next to the name: "1.44." That was the team grade for the player, and it was the reason the card was placed in the middle of the fourth round. Four quarterbacks' cards on the board had higher grades: those belonging to Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook. During the draft, the Cowboys would try to trade down in the first round to acquire Lynch. When that didn't work, they would plan to take Cook with their fourth-round pick only to have the Raiders trade up in the round and steal him. As it turned out, seven quarterbacks would be chosen ahead of the quarterback with the 1.44 grade. In addition to the aforementioned four, also on the list: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett and Cody Kessler. Another 127 players who weren't quarterbacks also would be taken ahead of Prescott. Six months later, as Prescott prepares for a game against the Eagles and Wentz that will establish who controls the NFC East, it's remarkable how much has changed. Prescott has become so many things in that short time. He has become the starting quarterback for the Cowboys and may remain so no matter who comes back. He has become a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. He has become the fifth-highest-ranked starting quarterback in the league with a passer rating of 103.9. And maybe more than anything, he has become a mistake. A mistake who makes every NFL talent evaluator slap his forehead. The Cowboys' 1.44 grade was in line with what the rest of the NFL was thinking of Prescott. Bleacher Report surveyed six other teams on their predraft grades. Three others had him in the fourth round. One had him in the second round. One had him in the third round. And one had him in the fifth. Everyone missed on Prescott, on what he could become. And they missed on him because of three myths.MYTH NO. 1: It will be difficult for him to play in a pro-style offense"I think he'll struggle playing under center. Everything he did was shotgun. He might fit in some of the Chip Kelly concepts. But he could struggle with coverage, windows and tempo of game." — High-ranking AFC personnel man before the draft Prescott played in Dan Mullen's spread offense at Mississippi State. Every college quarterback who plays in a spread offense gets the stink-eye from NFL teams, but not every college quarterback who plays in a spread offense has been penalized on draft day the way Prescott was. Goff, the first overall pick in the draft, played in a spread offense at Cal. So did Cam Newton at Auburn, and he was chosen first in 2011. Mullen was Alex Smith's quarterback coach at Utah, running a similar offense to the one Prescott played in. Smith went No. 1 overall anyway. Prescott may have been branded as a running quarterback, too. The Cowboys had concerns because he frequently operated outside the pocket. He had 536 rushes and scored 41 touchdowns on runs in his career at Mississippi State. "You see a guy who runs the ball 20 times in a game, and you let that shield you to the rest of his game," Prescott said. "We all got caught up in the offense," an AFC front office man said. Cowboys director of player personnel Stephen Jones acknowledged that Cook was pushed up their board ahead of Prescott in part because he had the "advantage" of having played in a pro-style offense at Michigan State. The fear many shared was it would take time for Prescott to transition to the pro game. "The biggest thing with these quarterbacks for us is, Can he change and adapt quickly?" a longtime college scouting director said. "We had questions about it with him." Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan did, too. But he saw enough potential in Prescott to believe that even if he took time, he would be worth the wait. According to Jones, Linehan was "on the table" for the Cowboys to draft Prescott. Linehan had him rated with the top quarterbacks in the draft, Wentz and Goff, and he pushed for the team to rate him higher than it did. Linehan studied the Mississippi State offense as well as the quarterback. His impression was that Prescott was making more whole-field reads than most spread quarterbacks. But he knew three elements would be transitional for him: Playing under center, running a huddle and learning/making more expansive play calls. Prescott said he went from four words to describe a play in college to eight words in the NFL. He scored an impressive 25 on the Wonderlic test, but that wasn't a reliable predictor of how he would understand and process football concepts. Jason Garrett's boyish good looks and Princeton diploma can be deceiving. He spent 16 years as a professional backup quarterback and is in his 12th year as an NFL coach. He has answered to Jimmy Johnson, Sean Payton, Jon Gruden and Nick Saban. At 50, the head coach of the Cowboys has an edge to him. Garrett wanted to see how much Prescott could handle when the Cowboys brought him to their old facility in Irving, Texas, eight days before the draft. Prescott was led into the offensive staff room, where Garrett, Linehan, quarterbacks coach Wade Wilson, wide receivers coach Derek Dooley and assistant head coach/special teams coach Rich Bisaccia were ready. Garrett took a marker and went to the grease board. In an installation that took about 10 minutes, he drew four vertical concepts three different ways and against two coverages—single safety high and two safeties high. Then he took an eraser and wiped his plays off the board. "Now," he told Prescott, "Get up and draw the formation, call the play and put the defense up there. Then tell me what you do in different scenarios." Prescott took the marker, calmly drew the plays as Garrett had drawn them and answered questions about defensive adjustments. Prescott had this. "I'm fortunate I have good visual recall," Prescott said. "If we are drawing it out, I can give it back to you two days from now. I could see it in my head." Garrett wasn't done, though. He erased what Prescott had drawn and took the marker again. He started with another installation, with two concepts and two protections. On one of them, he drew the No. 3 receiver running a vertical route through a defender. When it was Prescott's turn to draw the same play, he drew the receiver "staircasing," or going around the defender, because that's the way he always drew it. Garrett didn't like that. Or he acted as if he didn't like that. "I don't think that's the way I drew it," he barked. So Prescott erased the route and had the receiver going around the defender a different way. Garrett turned to the other coaches in the room. "Does that look like what I drew?" he asked. They all shook their heads no. "That's the only time I got nervous," Prescott said. "What the hell? I'm almost shaking." Prescott drew it a third time, again with the receiver avoiding the defender. Garrett shot a dagger at him. "I know this is where he goes," Prescott said to Garrett. Garrett stood up, took the marker, erased the route and drew it himself again, with the receiver running through the defender. They all chuckled. Prescott had passed the test. Wentz, Goff, Lynch, Cook, Brissett and Hackenberg also visited the Cowboys and went through similar drills. Prescott, the coaches agreed, was more composed than any of them. "There was a perception about him because of the offense he came from," Garrett said. "We never felt there was anything negative about it. In fact, we thought it was a positive, because you could see him make NFL throws." MYTH NO. 2: His throwing ability is below NFL standards "His arm strength is good enough, but he doesn't spin it like the real good ones. He's late with the ball. His accuracy bothers me." — NFC national scout before the draftBefore he coached Prescott, Mullen coached Tim Tebow. Prescott loved Tebow. Mullen gave him Tebow's phone number, and Prescott put it on speed dial. He chose No. 15 as his jersey number in college just like Tebow. His connection to Tebow didn't help him in NFL draft rooms, though. "He's Tim Tebow with more passing skills," an NFL front office man said in the spring. He did not mean it as a compliment. At the combine, Prescott threw the ball pretty well. According to one scout's notes, he completed 10 of 12 passes to his left and six of nine to his right. "He had some ball-placement issues on out routes," his notebook reads. At Mississippi State's pro day on March 10, Prescott was less impressive, according to the same scout. He said Prescott's accuracy was inconsistent. "Best up the seam," he wrote. "Struggles outside the numbers. On longer throws, his ball wobbled and he was off target." He also was critical of Prescott's timing on deep routes but did say he has enough arm strength. The takeaway: "After that, I don't think anyone thought he was a great passer," the scout said. Prescott's body of work at Mississippi State would have led talent evaluators to a different conclusion. Through his career, Prescott threw 70 touchdowns to 23 interceptions. He put together the third-longest streak in SEC history of passes without an interception at 288 (his NFL encore was a string of 176 attempts without a pick, which broke the rookie record held by Tom Brady). He also had a metamorphic effect on the Bulldogs program. Prior to his arrival, Mississippi State didn't even play in a bowl game in seven of 10 years. They went to a bowl every year he was there, and for a five-week stretch, they were ranked No. 1 in the nation—a first in school history. He had a .697 winning percentage as a starter. But despite a 66.2 completion percentage as a senior, his accuracy was questioned. Many of his college throws, they said, were short and easy to complete, so his percentage was skewed. With the Cowboys, Prescott has completed 68.7 percent of his throws—the second-highest percentage in the league behind Tom Brady. "His accuracy has been the most pleasant surprise," Wilson said. "He would have some up-and-down throws in college. … He has been very consistent." Even after training camp, the team didn't know Prescott could be such an accurate passer. When veteran quarterback Kellen Moore broke his ankle in early August, the Cowboys investigated trading for Josh McCown because they weren't sure Prescott could handle being Tony Romo's backup. Prescott really didn't start showing how accurate and effective he could be until the preseason. In exhibition games, he led all NFL quarterbacks who completed at least 25 passes with a passer rating of 137.8 and a completion percentage of 78.0. With each passing preseason game, the Cowboys' front office and coaching staff had to rethink what Prescott could become. It was challenging because what Prescott was in workouts and practices wasn't what he is in games. "I will tell you this about Dak," Jones said. "In practice, he does not throw it as accurately as he does in a game. That's been going on out here. It's not for lack of want to or effort. It's not perfect like it was when [Troy] Aikman was here. Romo throws it to perfection. Dak has a lot of gamer in him. When the lights come on, he plays better than he does in practice. For whatever reason, it seems like everything seems to refine at the right time."MYTH NO. 3: His character is lacking "Was he a good kid? There were some red flags. You knew he liked going out. The school said it wasn't that big a deal. But because he is a quarterback, you had to look at it harder. I would have stuck with him if there wasn't that off-the-field stuff. It dissuaded me. I couldn't tell if he was a bulls--tter or real." — NFC general manager whose team dropped Prescott to the fifth round from the third because of character concerns A scar starts near the corner of Prescott's right eye and travels down and out. It almost looks like a laugh line, but there was nothing funny about how it came to be. Prescott and some teammates were in Panama City at a Waka Flocka concert during spring break in 2015 when they were jumped. A group of men got Prescott on the ground. They kicked him and hit him in the face with a bottle. Video and photos of the fight were all over the internet. It had been easy enough for NFL teams to look past the incident, as the attack apparently was unprovoked. But then at 12:45 a.m. on March 12 of this year, Prescott was pulled over on University Avenue in Starkville, Mississippi, in a 2016 white Cadillac Escalade for speeding. The officer said he was driving 41 miles per hour, and the speed limit was 25. Prescott also was arrested and charged with driving under the influence of alcohol. Now there was a pattern. The timing of the arrest—just 46 days before the draft, in peak overreaction season—was almost as concerning as the arrest itself. The buzz began. Didn't he realize what was at stake? Couldn't he control himself? Prescott is convinced his DUI arrest, more than anything, precipitated his fall in the draft. "I felt, based on what I was being told by teams, that I was a second- or third-round pick," he said. "No way the fourth. I felt there was a chance when people got to know me [that] I could jump to late first round. I felt if it was the fourth, it was just doubting me because of the DUI. The DUI boosted everybody's doubts." Representatives from three teams, including the Cowboys, acknowledged that they moved Prescott down their boards as a result of the incident. "It found its way into our grade," Jones said. Wilson visited Starkville to work out Prescott on March 21. But it wasn't just about seeing him throw. He wanted to see how Prescott interacted in the environment that had been his home for five years. Prescott took him through the athletic facilities, where they watched tape together. Then they shared a meal at Restaurant Tyler downtown. What Wilson experienced was a young man who appeared to be respected and liked by everyone who knew him—and lionized by those who did not. "I couldn't find anyone to say a bad word about him," Wilson said. In subsequent weeks, Prescott visited the Cowboys, Eagles, Broncos, Bills and Cardinals. And wherever he went, the DUI charge was "the elephant in the room," he said. He couldn't wait to talk about it and get it out of the way. Neither could Garrett. Prescott said Garrett grilled him about the DUI more than any other team representative throughout the draft process. In the middle of talking about X's and O's during Prescott's predraft visit, Garrett suddenly shifted the conversation. "What was going on with the DUI?" he said abruptly. Prescott answered him the way he answered everyone. "I didn't feel I was drunk," he responded. "I had a couple drinks at the bar. I know eyes were on me. I got in my truck and hit the gas. I was speeding. But I wasn't drunk. I put myself in a position I shouldn't have." Good answer. But it didn't suffice for Garrett. "Are you kidding me?" he said. "You are the face of the program down there. You are the guy everybody looks up to." Prescott owned up to his mistake and made it clear he wasn't blaming the arresting officer. Still not good enough for Garrett. "You're getting ready for the draft and you decide to do this?" Prescott acknowledged his timing was bad and took the blame. Garrett kept pressing, and now it was getting uncomfortable. "What the heck were you thinking? What would we be getting here?" Prescott kept his cool, as he might while trying to bring his team back from a fourth-quarter deficit. "I don't know what else you want me to say," he told Garrett. "This is what happened. I'm completely accountable for it. It's not going to happen again." That was enough. "He was so mature and matter-of-fact," Garrett said. "He handled it so well. It was a very important part of our evaluation of him." Mike Woicik is the Cowboys strength coach. He's been coaching in the NFL for 27 years and has six Super Bowl rings, including three from his tenure with Bill Belichick's Patriots. After all this time, he knows how players' minds work as well as how their muscles work. After the offseason program had concluded, Jones asked Woicik, who had spent a lot of time with the rookies since the draft, which ones stood out to him. "I'm not saying he's Tom Brady as a football player," Woicik told him. "But Dak has the same type of people skills and leadership skills that Tom has." As time passed, Prescott's truths continued to be revealed. He would show up to The Ford Center at the Star, the Cowboys' new facility in Frisco, every morning at 6:15. He came to practice with the scripts memorized. Instead of hearing Linehan make the play call in practice, he would stop him after a couple of words so Prescott could call the play all by himself. He connected with everyone from 14-year veteran tight end Jason Witten to the cafeteria workers. "Romo's team," he kept calling the Cowboys, even as he made it more his own with every pass. "The thing with him is his makeup just kept coming out—the intangible stuff, the non-box-score-type stuff," said Linehan. "To me, his quarterback makeup is complete." That DUI charge? It didn't stick. Prescott was acquitted in July. But what did stick is the lesson that powerful intangibles often are more important in quarterback evaluations than youthful indiscretions, throwing motions and system experience. What makes Prescott special may be what made Brady special. And Russell Wilson. And Drew Brees. And Romo, too. Every one of them was underrated in the draft process. "I'm really mad at myself," the NFC general manager said. "I went to school and loved Prescott. There was the 'it' factor with him. We had some people in the building who didn't like him. Two of us were really on him, so it wasn't worth the battle. In retrospect, it would have been. I wish I had been more open-minded. I will look at some guys differently this year." A lot of talent evaluators will. They won't want to make the same mistake again. Way to go Baalke.

Oct 29, 2016 at 11:26 AM

saniner
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Posts: 7,724

Good read. So upset we passed on him. I thought for sure he had solidified himself as a second round pick.

Oct 29, 2016 at 12:54 PM

LasVegasWally
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Posts: 24,853

i learned about Dak from you last year and read more about him.

I then jumped on the bandwagon to draft him.

I never thought he'd turn out this good this soon.

Do you have any other sleepers like him this season??

Oct 29, 2016 at 1:27 PM

Jcool
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Posts: 44,526

Its an easy answer... DUI right before the draft dropped his stock. Also a lot of his success is helped by the fact he is playing behind the best OL in football and is not being asked to win games (#23 in yards, #20 in YPG & tied for #22nd in TDs).

Nov 6, 2016 at 9:45 PM

kaynj
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Posts: 324

Im still mad that Trent missed out on this one. I knew before the draft that this dude was going to be good.

Nov 6, 2016 at 10:17 PM

DaDivaRecieva15
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This dude would be trash on our team lulz

Nov 7, 2016 at 5:47 AM

valrod33
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Alcoholic

Nov 7, 2016 at 5:56 AM

NYniner85
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Posts: 118,935

Still blows my mind...and Dak told reporters we were one of the least interested teams in him during the draft process

We all know how much Baalke loves Parcells and Bill had a certain criteria when drafting a QB and Dak checked off all the boxes...

He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn't ephemeral and that he has lived as "the guy" for some period of time.
He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.

What also blows my mind is that he waited until the 207th pick to even take a QB! I've been a supporter of him and trusted the processes but this guy HAS to go. We need to clean house top to bottom get new scouts the whole thing.

Nov 7, 2016 at 12:03 PM

genus49
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Posts: 28,200

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Still blows my mind...and Dak told reporters we were one of the least interested teams in him during the draft process

We all know how much Baalke loves Parcells and Bill had a certain criteria when drafting a QB and Dak checked off all the boxes...

He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.

He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.

He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn't ephemeral and that he has lived as "the guy" for some period of time.

He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.

What also blows my mind is that he waited until the 207th pick to even take a QB! I've been a supporter of him and trusted the processes but this guy HAS to go. We need to clean house top to bottom get new scouts the whole thing.

Honestly reading that list makes me mad...how many people these days meet that criteria? Could be why we haven't drafted any friggin QBs lately.

And who was the last QB Parcells drafted who was something special?

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers hit only 2 of those rules.
Colin Kaepernick hit all 4.

I get the idea behind his rules but that better not be how we rank the list, use it if you have two prospects very close to each other.

Nov 7, 2016 at 12:09 PM

NYniner85
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Posts: 118,935

Originally posted by genus49:
Honestly reading that list makes me mad...how many people these days meet that criteria? Could be why we haven't drafted any friggin QBs lately.

And who was the last QB Parcells drafted who was something special?

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers hit only 2 of those rules.
Colin Kaepernick hit all 4.

I get the idea behind his rules but that better not be how we rank the list, use it if you have two prospects very close to each other.

Yeah it's stupid IMO, but it gave me hope that we were gonna get Dak lol.

Nov 7, 2016 at 12:18 PM

#10

Phoenix49ers
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Posts: 131,738

Originally posted by genus49:
Honestly reading that list makes me mad...how many people these days meet that criteria? Could be why we haven't drafted any friggin QBs lately.

And who was the last QB Parcells drafted who was something special?

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers hit only 2 of those rules.
Colin Kaepernick hit all 4.

I get the idea behind his rules but that better not be how we rank the list, use it if you have two prospects very close to each other.

I hope that list still isn't in use.

I think the biggest factors for Prescott being overlooked were the DUI and the offense he came out of. He came from the same offense as Tebow and while it seems superficial that teams would ding him for that, you see s**t like this and you realize that there are teams that do things for really dumb reasons sometimes.

Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout Asked a Director of Player Personnel why so many teams missed on Derek Carr. Reply: "David Carr"

Prescott largely carried that offense, its not like he was surrounded by a ton of top-level playmaker, the improvement he showed from his junior to senior years also was pretty incredible, improved mechanics, improved awareness, more patience in the pocket, I've always felt that if a guy puts in that much obvious work to improving and steps up like that in college, its reasonable to assume that it will continue in the NFL and by all accounts, he has done just that. A Cowboys beat guy was on the radio out here talking about how Prescott has won the respect of key veterans such as Jason Witten through his incredible work ethic and that the guy absolutely just devours film.

Nov 7, 2016 at 1:26 PM

#11

kaynj
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Posts: 324

Dak clearly was ready for the moment week in and week out. He has looked very prepared when he plays. Teams have had over several weeks of film and Dak continues to adjust with in the game. I havent seen this out of a 49er qb since Steve Young. Trent blew this one bad.

Nov 7, 2016 at 3:15 PM

#12

9erred
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Posts: 4,192

Originally posted by DaDivaRecieva15:
This dude would be trash on our team lulz

That is my issue, I can guarantee you all of our draft picks would be playing better on other teams. If we had dak prescott and Michael thomas, they probably would be riding the pine and would have no playing itme.

Nov 7, 2016 at 3:25 PM

#13

Phoenix49ers
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Posts: 131,738

Originally posted by 9erred:
That is my issue, I can guarantee you all of our draft picks would be playing better on other teams. If we had dak prescott and Michael thomas, they probably would be riding the pine and would have no playing itme.

I think Prescott wouldnt be doing as well as he is in Dallas but definitely better than the 49ers current QBs. He has good short to intermediate area accuracy and is a great fit with the zone read.

Nov 7, 2016 at 3:55 PM

#14

genus49
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Posts: 28,200

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I think Prescott wouldnt be doing as well as he is in Dallas but definitely better than the 49ers current QBs. He has good short to intermediate area accuracy and is a great fit with the zone read.

Yeah no question he would be doing better than what we have. If anything Chip's offense would be a better fit for his skills.

Would some of our players look better on better teams? Sure...doesn't mean Dak wouldn't have been a very good pick for us. We just need to hope that Redmond and Robinson are stud corners and we find our franchise QB who is better than Dak soon.