Schools With a Lot of Busts: Beware of Them?

NinerSickness · 2016-03-16T23:36:15-07:00

Back in 2008, I went through each school to find the one who had the most busts over a certain stretch, and the winner was Wisconsin. Florida came in 2nd, tied w/ another school I can't remember (think it was Nebraska maybe). I did it again a few years later, and USC had surpassed them as the new champ's. I then looked at bust rates as a percentage, and Arkansas & Auburn were at 80% (4 out of 5 then). USC & LSU had a bust rate of 2/3 at the time. Tennessee & Ohio state weren't great either. It maybe be time to update that list of schools. USC was the reigning champ'. Wonder if anyone surpassed 'em... I think a big theme when it comes to first-round busts is players who played on great teams, but it was the team who made them look better. With that theme in mind,do the following players have to get another look as a potential bust? A'Shawn Robinson Joey Bosa Ezekiel Elliot Eli Apple Darron Lee Shaq Lawson Jarran Reed kevin Dodd Jack Conklin Derrick Henry Taylor Decker

Mar 17, 2016 at 4:25 PM

irishluder
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Posts: 2,356

I could see Bosa being a partial bust because of the hype hes got, will be nothing close to JJ Watt. Still will be a good pro with full career, but not an all pro. Problem with the top defenses is there is so much talent its hard to pick a guy and say it was him that got the sack or int rather than pressure other players applied.

Mar 17, 2016 at 9:46 PM

49ersGiants7
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Posts: 862

neither usc school has produced a whole lot for us. there was a rumor going around that the 49ers eliminated all south carolina guys from their board.

Mar 17, 2016 at 10:06 PM

jreff22
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Posts: 67,317

I wouldn't touch anybody from USC.

Mar 17, 2016 at 10:12 PM

The411
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Posts: 248

It has to do with the big name schools. Often players can look better than they are because they have loads of talent that makes their job easier.

Mar 17, 2016 at 10:20 PM

SanDiego49er
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Posts: 52,243

Each player is an individual and has to be scouted as such. Some successful or bust player for that matter from 3 years ago, 5 years ago, 10 years ago has absolutely NOTHING to do with the current player. Evaluate the player for who they are. Not what someone else prior to them was. They are not the same person.

Mar 17, 2016 at 11:23 PM

TheRambler
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Posts: 38,348

Alabama has a lot of busts. Dunno why Ohio State is on that list. Not a lot of superstars from there but a tonnnn of players around the league. Very few teams that don't have at least one Buckeye.

Mar 17, 2016 at 11:46 PM

hofer36
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Posts: 8,257

Baylor olineman,,,,? smith who the rams drafted 2nd in rd 1 a few years back and danny watkins come to mind

Mar 18, 2016 at 1:24 AM

SisterFister
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Posts: 783

I was going to make a similar thread like this awhile back and then I realized the insane amount of work this takes.

My curiosity started with Ohio State. I tried to think of a superstar front 7 player from Ohio State who got drafted in rounds 1 and 2 going back 10-15 years.

2014 pick 15 Ryan Shazier
2013 pick 49 Johnathan Hankins
2011 pick 31 Cameron Heyward
2009 pick 35 James Lauriniatus
2008 pick 6 Vernon Gholston
2006 pick 5 AJ Hawk
2006 pick 18 Bobby Carpenter
2004 pick 18 Will Smith
2001 pick 29 Ryan Pickett
1999 pick 28 Andy Katzemoyer

The books are too early to tell on Shazier, Heyward, and Hankins. James Lauriniatus and Will Smith are the only players worth their draft slot imo. And I only say Lauriniatus because of his durability. He's never missed a start. Picket had a long career but before his stint with the Packers was considered a bust with the Rams. Not worth a first. Aj hawk, 5th overall...

Bobby Carpenter 18th...

Vernon Gholston 6th overall....

Anyways ya get the gist.