The &quot;drafting a QB late&quot; folly.

The "drafting a QB late" folly.

Phoenix49ers · 2015-11-30T11:55:04-08:00

Now that Gabbert has played a few good games, I'm hearing more people comment on drafting a QB in the 4th round or later. I think the focus on late round QB's is rather faulty since these players rarely if ever work out and most won't even play a single snap for the team that ends up drafting them. I remember seeing an analysis that showed that statistically you're better off drafting a punter or long snapper late than you are a QB since they so seldom provide any return at all. Here's a look at some statistics detailing the success of late round QBs from 1994-2013. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data 3rd round You'd figure that over two decades you could find some pretty good prospects that came out of the 3rd round but Schaub and Wilson are the only guys to appear as long-term starters. Wilson himself largely fell due to his height and not questions about his ability as a QB. Mel Kiper stated that he'd have been a top 10 pick if he were about four inches taller so its pretty safe to say that he's more the exception and not the rule. The Good- Russell Wilson Matt Schaub Nick Foles Brian Griese The Bad- Andrew Walter Dave Ragone Charlie Whitehurst Jonathan Quinn Brock Huard Trent Edwards Chris Simms Charlie Frye Brodie Croyle Stoney Case Bobby Hoying Eric Zeier Colt McCoy David Greene Giovanni Carmazzi Ryan Mallett Kevin O'Connell 4th Round Not much to speak of here. Cousins has been coming on and improving so that's good, but otherwise its a pretty weak group outside of Garrard, Orton, Brooks and Cousins. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-dataThe Good David Garrard Kyle Orton Aaron Brooks Kirk Cousins Dak Prescott The Bad Danny Kanell Rob Johnson Tyler Wilson Stefan LeFors Seneca Wallace Pat Barnes Matt Barkley Rohan Davey Sage Rosenfels Stephen McGee Chad May Luke McCown Steve Stenstrom Chris Weinke Mike Kafka Dave Barr Danny Wuerffel Jesse Palmer Joe Germaine Jeff Lewis Doug Nussmeier Perry Klei 5th Round The Good The Bad AJ Feeley John Skelton Mike McMahon Troy Smith Josh Johnson TJ Yates Craig Krenzel Kurt Kittner Dennis Dixon Craig Nall Randy Fasani Brian St Pierre Tee Martin Ingle Martin Adrian McPherson Brandon Doman Erik Ainge Jay Barker Jeff Rowe John David Booty Jonathan Crompton Kevin Daft Nate Davis Nathan Enderle Omar Jacobs Rhett Bomar Ricky "Montana" Stanzi 6th Round I think when people usually talk about finding a QB in the draft, this is the round that defines that, with everyone hoping that they can get the next Brady or even a Matt Hasselbeck or Marc Bulger. The Good Tom Brady Matt Hasselbeck Marc Bulger Tyrod Taylor(for now) Derek Anderson(With "good" being relative here I guess) The Bad Andre Woodson Jim Sorgi Jim Miller Andy Hall Joe Webb Chuck Clements Brooks Bollinger Colt Brennan Bruce Gradkowski Dan LeFevour Craig Whelihan JaJuan Seider Curtis Painter Jeff Smoker Tony Pike Jerry Colquitt J.T. O'Sullivan John Dutton Josh Booty Ryan Lindley Josh Harris Keith Null Josh Heupel Rusty Smith Mike Cawley Spergon Wynn Mike Teel Jordan Palmer Spence Fischer Tom Brandstater Todd Husak Drew Henson Kliff Kingsbury Mike Cherry 7th Round The word "good" here starts to become very loosely applied. The Good Matt Cassel Ryan Fitzpatrick Matt Flynn Tim Rattay Koy Detmer Gus Frerotte The Bad Casey Bramlet Glenn Foley Zac Dysert D.J. Shockley Tony Graziani Chandler Harnish James Kilian Ken Dorsey Brad Sorensen Jeff Kelly Matt Mauck John Walsh Moses Moreno Jon Stark Jarious Jackson Kyle Wachholtz Greg McElroy Ronnie McAda Gibran Hamdan Sean Canfield Chris Greisen Seth Burford John Navarre Tony Corbin Levi Brown Wes Pate Bradlee Van Pelt Zac Robinson Scott Covington Jay Walker Cody Pickett Steve Matthews Wally Richardson Michael Bishop Joe Hamilton Tyler Thigpen Alex Brink The BJ's BJ Coleman BJ Daniels BJ Symons http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24563457/excited-about-that-late-round-qb-your-team-drafted-dont-be Its fun to look for QB's late in the draft, hoping that one might turn out to be a diamond in the rough but history shows that you're far more likely to wind up with a huge chunk of coal.

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:00 PM

SteveWallacesHelmet
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Posts: 24,033

Totally agree with this. Drafting a QB in the 4th round or lower is like purchasing a Powerball ticket. Sure, a very small percentage of the time, a powerball ticket is a winning ticket. But an overwhelming majority of the time, it is not.

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:02 PM

Phoenix49ers
Veteran
Posts: 131,728

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Totally agree with this. Drafting a QB in the 4th round or lower is like purchasing a Powerball ticket. Sure, a very small percentage of the time, a powerball ticket is a winning ticket. But an overwhelming majority of the time, it is not.

Its exactly what it is. The draft in general becomes very sketchy in the 4th round and beyond but the QB position especially has an atrocious rate of success.

I think at that point in the draft you're better off drafting for some other position unless you're hoping to land a guy who might be a decent backup QB for a few years.

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:20 PM

susweel
Hall of Nepal
Posts: 122,030

I would still go QB in the first and let him sit for a year, at the latest go 2nd round qb or maybe trade back into the late first if someone like Goff or Lynch drop.

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:44 PM

genus49
Moderator
Posts: 28,196

I'm pretty sure we can find the next Tom Brady.

Scouting just needs to find a guy who fits all of these

49ers fan growing up
Good in clutch situations
Not afraid to get hit
Loves the game
Plays to win everything he plays even if it means cheating
Good height
Handsome

You're welcome Trent.

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:51 PM

Phoenix49ers
Veteran
Posts: 131,728

Originally posted by genus49:
I'm pretty sure we can find the next Tom Brady.

Scouting just needs to find a guy who fits all of these

49ers fan growing up
Good in clutch situations
Not afraid to get hit
Loves the game
Plays to win everything he plays even if it means cheating
Good height
Handsome

You're welcome Trent.

Nate Sudfeld?

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:54 PM

genus49
Moderator
Posts: 28,196

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Nate Sudfeld?

Not handsome enough :(

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:56 PM

Phoenix49ers
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Posts: 131,728

Originally posted by genus49:
Not handsome enough :(

Nov 30, 2015 at 12:59 PM

joaosoarrs99
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Posts: 1,096

Most good QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Nov 30, 2015 at 1:10 PM

Phoenix49ers
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Posts: 131,728

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
Most good QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Cliffnotes for this thread I guess.

Nov 30, 2015 at 1:24 PM

#10

genus49
Moderator
Posts: 28,196

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
Most good QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds.

I disagree. I think that few good QBs are drafted in round 3 or later.

Nov 30, 2015 at 1:25 PM

#11

DonnieDarko
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Posts: 66,387

Colt Brennan...whatever happened to that guy?

Nov 30, 2015 at 1:25 PM

#12

communist
Veteran
Posts: 12,475

let's turn the approach around. if you want to draft a solid qb at the very least, you have to pick one in round 1-2. at least, this is true for the last 15 years or so.
out of the top of my head:
palmer
smith
dalton (this season)
rivers
eli
peyton
Roethlisberger
Newton (more than less)
luck
brees
mcnabb
rodgers
ryan
stafford (more or less)
flacco
tannehill (more or less)
cutler (more or less)

Nov 30, 2015 at 1:47 PM

#13

49erfeeeever808
Veteran
Posts: 31,326

3rd round should be the latest we wait to draft a QB. regardless of how well Gabbert has been playing and even if he continues to play at the same pace.

Anthony Davis better announce quick if he's coming back or not so that we can determine what to do with the 1st round pick.

Nov 30, 2015 at 1:48 PM

#14

Jcool
Veteran
Posts: 44,526

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Nate Sudfeld?

Well he has won 6 games at Indiana this year. Which is like USC winning 12 games. Last Indiana team to win 6+ games: 2007 and before that 1993....