The Draft Lottery Thread

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by asu49ers:
Anyone know how the SOS will play out for the teams ahead of us assuming these teams lose as well? Just wondering if there is any chance of jumping ahead of the Cowboys or Chargers if all three of us lose.

Our SOS is too high to jump any of the four teams ahead of us.

Technically it's still possible to jump to #2. But, essentially, every team with an impact on the Niners' SOS and that of the other current top 5 teams would need to win or lose in the Niners favor. The #1 pick is not possible.

In all practicality, #5 is the likely landing spot. #3 and #4 are possible should we lose and the Chargers and/or Cowboys win.

A Niners' victory will more than likely put us at #8 simply because our SOS is so much greater than any other team. At this point in the season, there will not be great week-to-week variation in SOS.

Currently, the Niners have the highest SOS in the NFL.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Our SOS is too high to jump any of the four teams ahead of us.

Why does everyone rule out the Browns winning? They win and we move up as well. (If we lose). Chances aren't likely they beat Pit fighting for a spot but these are our only ways of moving up now

Originally posted by DJamhour:
Why does everyone rule out the Browns winning? They win and we move up as well. (If we lose). Chances aren't likely they beat Pit fighting for a spot but these are our only ways of moving up now

If CLE wins and we lose, we'll have the same record, but CLE has way lower SOS.

Cowboys will be playing wash and wash will be playing backups for most of the game. We may jump up to 4th pick and if sd wins the 3rd pick but I think that's all we can hope for.

So this week we root for the Rams sd and Dallas

Originally posted by mayo49:
If CLE wins and we lose, we'll have the same record, but CLE has way lower SOS.

Yeah it's stupid that it's not determined based on head to head first. So even though CLE beat us head to head they still would pick before us because it goes by SOS only. Stupid imo... kind of how the 2nd tiebreaker (or is it 3rd) is a coin flip. Like they don't have a million stats that would be better than a coin flip.

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by mayo49:
If CLE wins and we lose, we'll have the same record, but CLE has way lower SOS.

Yeah it's stupid that it's not determined based on head to head first. So even though CLE beat us head to head they still would pick before us because it goes by SOS only. Stupid imo... kind of how the 2nd tiebreaker (or is it 3rd) is a coin flip. Like they don't have a million stats that would be better than a coin flip.

This is interesting, because if for example we were in the playoffs with Seattle and say we are both 10-6 and we were 2-0 against Seattle this season. I believe we would have the slightly weaker strength of schedule. I think according to playoff seeding, we would be the higher seed, but if this is the draft, we get the lower pick. Makes no sense.

Lance Zierlein on 2016 NFL Draft order and needs.

1. Tennessee Titans
2015 record: 3-12 (.493)
Top need: Offensive tackle
Other needs: Running back, safety, inside linebacker
Analysis: The Titans look like they were able to hit with their selection of Marcus Mariota, but the best way to help him build his confidence and grow as a quarterback is to make sure he is surrounded with a balanced attack and quality tackle play to keep him protected. The Titans need a lead running back and bell-cow offensive tackle in the worst way. Veteran safety Michael Griffin is a prime candidate to become a cap casualty, so that position will need to be addressed. Inside linebacker play could use an upgrade in talent.

2. Cleveland Browns
2015 record: 3-12 (.532)
Top need: Quarterback
Other needs: Wide receiver, defensive end, inside linebacker
Analysis: The Browns took another swing at the franchise quarterback spot two years ago and that looks like a miss now. They must keep trying to find that guy. How do the Browns do a better job of stopping the run? Well, new talent might be nice. The inside linebacker position needs an infusion of young playmakers, and the same can be said at the defensive end spot.

3. San Diego Chargers
2015 record: 4-11 (.511)
Top need: Wide receiver
Other needs: Linebacker, quarterback, center
Analysis: For years it was just Antonio Gates, maybe Vincent Jackson and then a slew of guys catching passes from Philip Rivers. Gates is on the way out, and the Chargers need more help at wide receiver beyond Keenan Allen, who is out for the season with an injury. Denzel Perryman is waiting in the wings at inside linebacker, but it wouldn't hurt to add another player to that position. While finding a backup quarterback to potentially take over for Rivers could be in the works, finding a starting center who is at least average to above average should be a priority in the offseason.

4. Dallas Cowboys
2015 record: 4-11 (.529)
Top need: Quarterback
Other needs: Running back, defensive tackle, linebacker
Analysis: The Cowboys' offensive line is built for a rushing attack, so the Cowboys might want to go find a bell cow at that spot like they had with DeMarco Murray. Tony Romo's season-ending injury makes finding his heir apparent a much higher priority than it was when the Cowboys entered the season. Dallas did a nice job of building in the trenches on the offensive side of the ball and now they need to turn their attention to the defensive side -- specifically at defensive tackle.

5. San Francisco 49ers
2015 record: 4-11 (.558)
Top need: Quarterback
Other needs: Right tackle, wide receiver, defensive line
Analysis: The 49ers hoped that Colin Kaepernick would somehow turn it around, but he didn't and they know it is time to move on. The 49ers are almost assured of being in position to take a first-round quarterback for the first time since making Alex Smith with the first pick of the 2005 NFL Draft. Sudden retirements have left the 49ers a mess, and maybe no more so than at right tackle. Consistency at wide receiver would be helped with an infusion of young talent, and the formerly formidable defensive front for the 49ers could use an upgrade along the defensive line.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000551301/article/2016-nfl-draft-order-and-needs-for-every-team

As many have speculated, the 49ers may well miss out on Goff and Lynch if we end up picking behind CLE, DAL and SD at 5.

If both Lynch and Goff are picked ahead of the Niners at #5 (hypothetically) -- it would be an embarrassment of draft riches. The top 3 non-QBs in this draft are immediate difference makers.

Originally posted by okdkid:
If both Lynch and Goff are picked ahead of the Niners at #5 (hypothetically) -- it would be an embarrassment of draft riches. The top 3 non-QBs in this draft are immediate difference makers.

Yeah, there's going to be some good players available.

I really hope they go BPA available and go QB in 2/3 round.

Originally posted by genz22:
I really hope they go BPA available and go QB in 2/3 round.

Wouldn't you prefer they take the best player available in every round? You do realize how few QBs taken in round 2 and 3 ever work out, right?

Originally posted by slowriot:

Originally posted by genz22:
I really hope they go BPA available and go QB in 2/3 round.

Wouldn't you prefer they take the best player available in every round? You do realize how few QBs taken in round 2 and 3 ever work out, right?

I would take Wentz in the second, but that's about it.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by DJamhour:
Why does everyone rule out the Browns winning? They win and we move up as well. (If we lose). Chances aren't likely they beat Pit fighting for a spot but these are our only ways of moving up now

If CLE wins and we lose, we'll have the same record, but CLE has way lower SOS.

incorrect statement; the Browns have the next highest SOS of any team currently in the top 5 in draft order. Of course, their SOS would drop if they win on Sunday, so we'd need some significant SOS help. It's unlikely that they win; it's even less likely that all the SOS stars line up, but it's definitely possible. It's even possible for us to pass the cowboys, even if they also lose.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by slowriot:

Originally posted by genz22:
I really hope they go BPA available and go QB in 2/3 round.

Wouldn't you prefer they take the best player available in every round? You do realize how few QBs taken in round 2 and 3 ever work out, right?

I would take Wentz in the second, but that's about it.

I think it's becoming less likely that he makes it to the 2nd. Probably a late 1 guy.

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
incorrect statement; the Browns have the next highest SOS of any team currently in the top 5 in draft order. Of course, their SOS would drop if they win on Sunday, so we'd need some significant SOS help. It's unlikely that they win; it's even less likely that all the SOS stars line up, but it's definitely possible. It's even possible for us to pass the cowboys, even if they also lose.

I'd be a miracle to jump CLE by SOS.