MadDog49er Notes Tuesday March 10 | Page 7

MadDog49er · 2015-03-10T03:05:06-07:00

Greetings, all! Had the chance to watch a ton of games this week, and a number of things jump out at me while Pro-Days are blowing up across the US. For those looking for a quick bite, this thread is NOT for you. Edge Rushers: I am starting to shift some of the edge rushers to the very top of my best board. Here is why: I saw eight Shane Ray games this week, and he is simply an impact player in each game. Sacks, pressures, attention, and the ability to drop into coverage. I like that he lines up against the LT in most games, as does Beasley. Fowler is all over the place, but plays a lot over the right tackle, as does Gregory. In nearly every game I saw, Ray causes a fumble, forces an interception, and more. Beasley is similar in this way. So fast and disruptive. Both Ray and Beasley have deadly first steps, and burn the edge. I believe Ray is going to post a sub 4.5 at his Pro Day. Pure based on productivity, these guys are stronger than Fowler and Gregory. Fowler holds one edge as being larger than the pack, at about 15 pounds. All can drop into coverage. And, to me, all three (Ray, Beasley, Fowler) are top five graded players.The big challenge is ranking Gregory and Eli Harold of Virginia, who is a really good player as well. Overlooked to this point, but a guy super young (20) and moving up for sure. His ten yard split of 1.56 is elite. Probably an early-mid second rounder. Since all these guys will be gone before the Niners pick, a value player the team might want to examine is Trey Flowers of Arkansas. Not nearly as nimble as the big three, and has question marks dropping into coverage, this dude is a football player. On a stud Arkansas defense (those of you who love defenses need to watch some of their games), he was the best of the group. At 6'2", 266, with 34" arms, he fits the mold for long edge rushers in Baalke's system. Another note: I think the Niners take a long look at Preston Smith of Mississippi State in the second round, but to me, he is a better fit as a bulked up 34 DE than 34 OLB. Doesn't have the initial burst to play off the edge, even though his combine numbers were better than expected. Studying offensive tackles, it is obvious to me that Brandon Scherff has to move inside or to RT at the next level. Simply not nimble enough on the outside to hold up. I think his punch is remarkable, and I do see comparisons to Zach Martin, who I graded as a top 8 player last year on his way to the Pro Bowl. DJ Humphries is my number one graded OT because he is ready to play LT in the NFL. Struggled against Ray, but other than that, clean sheet. Really smooth. I think he ends up the first tackle taken in the draft. TJ Clemmings may be the best blocker at RT in the draft. Just mauls people. His pass protection at the Senior Bowl was scary to me, though. I think Collins can play the tackle and play it well. He is my number two OT in this draft, and someone to watch if he is on the board at 15, because he can kick inside and play at a high level. Interior backers: I was freaked out by how poorly Paul Dawson performed at the combine, but then went back to watch his games. Concerns alleviated. He, along with Ray, were the two best defensive players in college football last year. Best instincts of any defensive player. Uncanny he is involved in nearly every play. I think he will perform much better at his Pro Day, but it doesn't matter to me. This guy is a beast on the field. A lot of hype for Stephone Anthony this season, and for good reason. He is a three down backer, has good instincts, can attack the QB, and performed well at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Below Dawson, but solid player. Not nearly as high on Benardrick McKinney of Mississippi State. Long and lean and upright, I think some team is going to move him to DE or Sam at the next level. Strong, but does not have the instincts to be a stud ILB. As for possible draftees at ILB with Willis' upcoming retirement, the pickins are slim after the top four or five are gone. I have my best five as Dawson, Anthony, Kendricks, Perryman, and McKinney (who I think is shifting to OLB or DE in the NFL). The most mentioned guys after this group are Hayes Pullard of USC, Bryce Hager of Baylor, and Ben Heeney of Kansas. Not super high on any of these guys, to be honest. One off the chart guy to think about: Martrell Spaight of Arkansas. He played OLB in their 43 scheme, but was a tackling machine. Super active, productive, with excellent instincts. Probably a fourth or fifth round prospect, but a guy who is going to play in the NFL. On the defensive line, I continue to be impressed with Carl Davis. He has a solid combine, a fantastic Senior Bowl week and game, and his game play down the stretch of the year was outstanding. Bowl game, check mark, Senior Bowl Check mark, Combine check mark. Solid prospect. Someone the team will need to consider in the mid-second round is Marcus Hardison of Arizona St. Really a remarkable athlete for a projected DT. At 6'3", 307, with long arms, he played the 43DE role in college, which is almost unheard of. Super fast feet for a 300+ pound guy. Active, productive. Limited major college football experience, but this kid is going to surprise a lot of people in the NFL. I think he is perfect as a 34 DE.Watched about a half dozen Oklahoma games this past week, and Jordan Phillips is an enigma to me. About half the games, he plays at a high level, fighting through blockers, disrupting the backfield. And then, there is TCU and Kansas State, where is largely invisible throughout the whole game. Kansas State has a good center prospect in BJ Finney, and he controlled him throughout. However, the TCU center is not a pro prospect, was tiny compared to him, and dominated. Frustrating player to analyze. On the flip side, Malcom Brown of Texas is a consistent performer, a disruptive mess for an offense to game plan, and a guy who plays hard on every snap. My stacked DT top rankings are: Williams, Shelton, Davis, Brown, Goldman, Hardison, Armstead. Bennett, Jarrett, Phillips, Cooper, Anderson. This is a deep, deep group, just like the WR group last year. Going to be a lot of productive starters from this core. One value space eating 34 NT: Joey Mbu of Houston. Watched a number of games this year, and Mbu plays at a consistently high level. Pretty much your two-down toilet clogger in the middle of the line, but does have some good movement skills from sideline to sideline for a 6'3", 313 NT, and 35" arms that he uses really well. Probably a fourth rounder, and probable starter as a 34NT or 43 nose guard. I like him a lot. At corner, feeling good about some of the young pups in this draft. To me, it is a horse race between three first round CB's: Waynes, Kevin Johnson (not the mayor of Sacramento), and Jalen Collins. All have excellent pro potential, and are tighter on my best board than many have them. I really like Johnson's all-around game, and Collins runs like his hair is on fire. Fun trio. PJ Williams number four on my list, followed by Peters and Jones (the combine hero) of UConn. As for the QB class, couple notes. Higher on Mariota over Winston. He's very smart, so I believe he will learn how to do a 3,5,7 step drop, good leader like Winston, and hard worker. Two differences between the two QBs. One- off the field. Huge plus for Mariota. Model citizen. I don't trust Winston. Statistically, he probably raped that girl- most rape claims end up being true. Second, Mariota makes better on the field decisions. Winston turns over the ball far too often. In his last seven games, he only had one game with more TDs than INTs. Scary, because NFL defenses will be so much more complicated and fast. Having fun watching games this offseason. Tomorrow is probably the busiest Pro-Day day on the schedule. News should be fast and furious after a slow Monday. If there is a player you would like me to watch, please let me know.

Mar 20, 2015 at 12:34 PM

#91

bzborow1
Veteran
Posts: 3,514

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by bors:
Maddog what do we do about are linebacker situation?

Depends on Bowman's health. I don't think the Niners have to select an ILB early if they feel Bowman is good to go. They have guys in-house to play alongside him. Is it a long-term situation? Probably not. But, I don't think it would be wise to panic and go off-board to select for need. My best ILB is Dawson, then Anthony and Kendricks side by side.

In the end, I'd probably rather have them wait until the fourth round and see if Martrell Spraight is on the board. The guy is a baller, and would be a great value pick.

This. Everyone is panicking because of the loss of Willis and Borland. While this will have an impact on the field, the team does have guys on the roster who can play alongside Navarro and not be an immediate liability. In this vein, I would think this doesn't change the 49ers current plans for the first two rounds in the draft. As you've mentioned Maddog, all of this is dependent on Bowman's health.

Even if Bowman can't make it on the field, is that any reason to jump the gun on ILB in a draft where there is a noticeable lack of top-tier (ie. 3 down ILB) and overall talent?

[ Edited by bzborow1 on Mar 20, 2015 at 12:35 PM ]

Mar 20, 2015 at 12:51 PM

#92

highway49
Veteran
Posts: 4,076

Originally posted by bzborow1:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by bors:
Maddog what do we do about are linebacker situation?

Depends on Bowman's health. I don't think the Niners have to select an ILB early if they feel Bowman is good to go. They have guys in-house to play alongside him. Is it a long-term situation? Probably not. But, I don't think it would be wise to panic and go off-board to select for need. My best ILB is Dawson, then Anthony and Kendricks side by side.

In the end, I'd probably rather have them wait until the fourth round and see if Martrell Spraight is on the board. The guy is a baller, and would be a great value pick.

This. Everyone is panicking because of the loss of Willis and Borland. While this will have an impact on the field, the team does have guys on the roster who can play alongside Navarro and not be an immediate liability. In this vein, I would think this doesn't change the 49ers current plans for the first two rounds in the draft. As you've mentioned Maddog, all of this is dependent on Bowman's health.

Even if Bowman can't make it on the field, is that any reason to jump the gun on ILB in a draft where there is a noticeable lack of top-tier (ie. 3 down ILB) and overall talent?

Good post, the ILB issue doesn't change a lot of TD's draft day strategy in the big picture....

Mar 20, 2015 at 5:12 PM

#93

crew
Veteran
Posts: 805

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Replacing Smith will be nearly impossible. He was the best 34 DE for years before JJ Watt showed up to play. That being said, a ton of solid prospects this year that are starter quality (Davis, Hardison, Anderson, Edwards, and maybe even Indiana's Richardson).

I believe Baalke waits to Rd2 for DL and gets one of these 3 ( Hardison, Anderson, Edwards ) in lower part of Rd2. Baalke will trade down in 1st Rd and go either WR (Strong, DGB or Perriman) or CB (Peters, Collins or Darby), plus that extra 2nd Rd pick to use on a D-lineman. With Niners #46 pick in 2nd Rd, Baalke gets an ILB (McKinney, Anthony or Perryman).

Mar 22, 2015 at 7:47 AM

#94

communist
Veteran
Posts: 12,475

MD, would you mind to tell us/me something about:
-WR Conley, Georgia
-WR Waller, Georgia Tech
what round would you take them?

Mar 29, 2015 at 12:37 PM

#95

ninergold
Veteran
Posts: 846

Mad, you mentioned depth in a few categories. Given where the niners pick, who do you think they might be looking at?

OL - Miller, Marpet, McCann
DL - Drew, Anderson, P Smith
WR - ?
RB - Johnson, Cobb

Mar 29, 2015 at 1:52 PM

#96

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by communist:
MD, would you mind to tell us/me something about:
-WR Conley, Georgia
-WR Waller, Georgia Tech
what round would you take them?

Conley- Fast, eats up a lot of ground. Looked like a guy who might be a riser at the next level. To me, in a packed WR class, Mid-4th round value. Not as productive you like, but a deep threat.

Waller- Tall, long, red zone target. Nightmare for CBs to cover along the sideline. Limited to sideline work right now. A project, situational player. 5th round value.

Mar 29, 2015 at 1:57 PM

#97

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by ninergold:
Mad, you mentioned depth in a few categories. Given where the niners pick, who do you think they might be looking at?

OL - Miller, Marpet, McCann
DL - Drew, Anderson, P Smith
WR - ?
RB - Johnson, Cobb

At OL, if they want Cann, they better burn a second rounder. I think both Miller and Marpet will be on the board in the early-mid third.

Preston Smith is going early Not sure he will make it to the Niners' second rounder. If so, I think the team will take a long look.
Anderson will probably be there in the mid-third.
Drew looks like a 5th rounder to me, maybe 6th.

At RB, I think Johnson is an early third rounder. Might not make it to the Niners' third. Cobb is probably a fourth rounder, but doubtful he makes it to our fifth round selection.

Mar 29, 2015 at 3:50 PM

#98

Travisty13
Veteran
Posts: 5,267

MD, love to hear your thoughts on both De'Vante Bausby, CB from Pitt State (crazy athlete, still raw) and Cedric Thompson, S, Minnesota (good athlete, has to be better than Dahl). Bausby is my favorite later round CB in the draft.

Also, considering our "win with class" motto by Jed York, think we'd take a late round flier on David Irving, the DT dismissed by Iowa State? Had a crazy pro-day (6'7 3/4", 273, 87 3/4" wingspan, 4.84 40, 1.69 10 yard split, 38" vertical, 10'8" broad, 4.53 20-yard shuttle, 7.27 3-cone). He'd make an intriguing 3-4 DE if he wasn't a knucklehead.

Mar 30, 2015 at 4:08 PM

#99

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Bausby is a raw piece of clay to mold. In some cases, it works out. In most cases, it doesn't. However, that is what teams do in the late rounds. They target special team guys or projects. Had a good Medal of Honor week of practice, and had a fairly shaky game. Saw almost every snap of game: one pass breakup, one deflection that turned into a reception, two missed tackles, one holding penalty.

Looks much more effective in press corner than off. I could see the Seahawks or Falcons with Quinn all over this guy.

As for Irving, when a team tells a former player they are not allowed to work out on campus, it means they are pissed off, and is a red flag for any team. Major red flag. He is going to go undrafted.

Mar 30, 2015 at 4:08 PM

#100

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Cedric Thompson borderline draftee. Good, not great prospect