Trading down is better than trading up in this draft for us.

SanDiego49er · 2015-02-27T00:17:43-08:00

IMO the drafts elite difference makers are about 10 deep. If you have a top 5 to top 10 pick I think it makes sense to stay put and pick. If you are at 15 I don't believe any player there will massively transform this team. No one player at 15 will put us over the top. Trading up is also very, very expensive from a points standpoint if you look at the trade chart they have developed. It's just too expensive to trade up in the 1st round. If you trade up in the 2nd or 3rd round that is more manageable especially if you have obtained more picks by trading back. I think that is the way for us to go. You must consider Justin Smith is older and may retire or drop off anytime. Ray McDonald is gone. Iupati is likely gone. Crabtree is likely gone. Gore may not return. Our NT gets hurt every single year. Sometimes more than one of them. We have big needs at DE, RB, OG, WR, NT and we could use a CB but I think the best one in the draft will likely be gone by #15. I just think trading back for us makes more sense. Fill more needs. We won't get an elite player anyway. Now if we were sitting at the Raiders spot I would say stay put and pick. I think they can get a difference maker there. I think Kevin White, Danny Shelton and Trae Waynes are all likely gone at #15. Some top players at WR, NT/DT and CB. Some need positions that we could fill. I think those are difference makers. Perhaps one is in play for us. I would be very happy to grab any of the 3. If we can get one stay and pick. If not I would rather trade down. Of course you need somebody to trade down with. That is an opportunity that must present it self. Sometimes it does and sometimes it does not.

Feb 27, 2015 at 5:46 AM

jonjt49
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Posts: 51

Someone has been reading my mind...I was going to post this but brother you beat me to it and I totally agree with 2015%! Just telling my close friend this yesterday...I wouldn't be shocked or surprised by a trade back for us...or see multiple trade back in the first round all together...but great work you said it perfectly!

Feb 27, 2015 at 6:25 AM

NeeJ49er
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Posts: 9,580

if the player we wanted and targeted is gone, might as well wheel and deal and pick up some extra picks ...we got Borland and Lynch in the middle rounds last year, who's to say we wont find a couple more gems after the 3rd round

Feb 27, 2015 at 6:29 AM

Overkill
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Posts: 11,868

Somebody has to be on the board that's worth trading up for. Trading back is great in theory, but the picks have to fall just right to make it worth it.

Feb 27, 2015 at 6:44 AM

socal9er42
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Posts: 4,622

Also have to find a willing Trade partner that makes a reasonable offer for the #15.

Question: If there are only "10 Elite Difference makers" in this draft, why would another Team want to give up something for #15?

Just trying to point out that even if the 49ers really do want to trade out because of the situation in how the Draft goes, it may not be able to do so because they couldn't get a good offer. It takes 2 to Tango.

Feb 27, 2015 at 6:48 AM

RishikeshA
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Posts: 12,720

I don't think Baalke will move up, he will definitely move down. I agree with you SanDiego 5-10 is worth standing pat, but someone may filter down from 12-14, that would be worth a shot of moving up a few places. IMO Baalke will go with the beef early and burner in the second round.

Feb 27, 2015 at 6:49 AM

NeeJ49er
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Posts: 9,580

especially if there is a player at a position a team needs BADLY when it's our turn to pick, we could really write our own check, hopefully a scenario surfaces when we are on the clock

Feb 27, 2015 at 8:34 AM

LasVegasWally
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Posts: 24,853

Good post SanDiego.

Depends who is there.

I agree w/RishikeshA - that Trent will go for the bulk first and WR second.

I'd love to get Eddie Goldman DL, 320, 6'4" from Florida State for our first round choice.

Feb 27, 2015 at 8:49 AM

genus49
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Posts: 28,215

Trading down for the sake of trading down is stupid. You have to see the board when the pick comes to know how far you're even willing to trade down...then of course there's finding someone to trade up.

If the niners think there's a big drop of talent after the top 10 why would another team want to give up picks to move up?

Feb 27, 2015 at 9:27 AM

crake49
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Posts: 13,201

Highest 1st round pick in years in a draft deep with talent and SanDiego doesn't want to use it. Why am I not surprised?

Feb 27, 2015 at 9:29 AM

#10

elguapo
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Posts: 26,395

Not if Parker is still there at 12 or so. Moving up 3 spots may be a good thing, if we want a wr. If we trade back I hope it's not a give up on wilfolk for rashaun woods situation!

Feb 27, 2015 at 10:07 AM

#11

Phoenix49ers
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Posts: 131,789

Originally posted by socal9er42:
Also have to find a willing Trade partner that makes a reasonable offer for the #15.

Question: If there are only "10 Elite Difference makers" in this draft, why would another Team want to give up something for #15?

Just trying to point out that even if the 49ers really do want to trade out because of the situation in how the Draft goes, it may not be able to do so because they couldn't get a good offer. It takes 2 to Tango.

Varying needs. If you're a team that needs an RB badly and the top RB in the draft is likely to go between 15 and 20, trading up makes sense.

Feb 27, 2015 at 10:08 AM

#12

Phoenix49ers
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Posts: 131,789

Originally posted by genus49:
Trading down for the sake of trading down is stupid. You have to see the board when the pick comes to know how far you're even willing to trade down...then of course there's finding someone to trade up.

If the niners think there's a big drop of talent after the top 10 why would another team want to give up picks to move up?

As I said in the other post, different teams have different needs. While one team may not have any players that they are especially interested in based on their needs, another might think they'll strike gold with a player that the first team isn't interested in.

Feb 27, 2015 at 10:58 AM

#13

Oakland-Niner
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Posts: 24,062

I dont follow college ball, but I heard there is a very spectacular running back that is projected to go around where we pick. I know that breaks from the norm, but if we could pick up another work horse like Frank Gore, Lynch or AP, I think you have to consider it.

Feb 27, 2015 at 11:00 AM

#14

SanDiego49er
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Posts: 52,219

Originally posted by jonjt49:
Someone has been reading my mind...I was going to post this but brother you beat me to it and I totally agree with 2015%! Just telling my close friend this yesterday...I wouldn't be shocked or surprised by a trade back for us...or see multiple trade back in the first round all together...but great work you said it perfectly!

I agree.