OnTheClock's Pre-Combine Mock 1/31/15

OnTheClock · 2015-01-31T16:34:19-08:00

Early projections have us getting a 4th and 7th rounder as compensatory picks. These are unconfirmed, but I'll include them as part of the draft prediction. Before I start, I'd like to detail the methodology here to show why I project things to fall something like this. * Baalke never picks the fan favorite, and often picks guys earlier in the 1st than we would expect. I like to call Baalke "the missing element" drafter. As in, he typically drafts players that fulfill missing elements on our team. * The 49ers have drafted a RB every single year under Baalke. I expect the trend to continue. * The 49ers have been scouting a lot of OL that are expected to go in the middle or later half of the draft. This leads me to believe they will put emphasis on other positions earlier, with the exception of players so high on the board that they have to take them. * I do not expect Mangini to alter the 3-4 scheme, based on the current personnel we have. So with all that said, here are the picks: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Devin Smith-WR-Ohio State, 6-0 190 4.38 If this pick doesn't make you mad, then it's not realistic. Baalke has angered fans with just about every first round pick he's made the past several years, so why should this year be any different? Now, don't get me wrong here, I like Devin Smith. I actually disagree with MadDog in the sense that I think Smith can be a valuable contributor on our team. BUT this is too high. That said though, the 49ers need a speed threat, and teams who can utilize their speed creatively are the ones that beat Seattle. Smith has been rocketing up draft boards lately it seems and many expect him to go by the 2nd round. I see the 49ers pulling a move where they take someone like this in the 1st because "he's the guy we wanted". They don't care what the analysts grade him, what the fans grade him, or what anyone else says. They do what they want, and this is why I envision the Niners once again picking a guy too high in the first. Now, onto the evaluation of Smith... I firmly believe that Smith is one of the top 5 most explosive receivers in this draft. I believe the team needs a player like him to help take the top off of a defense, and while he may need refining in some areas, I don't believe he is just a track star -- Smith has plenty of tools to work with. He repeatedly blew by corners and was a threat to score every time he touched the ball. He finished the year with 931 yards and 12 TDs and some big-time performances in huge games. First scorching Michigan State (who has the #1 rated CB on many boards) for 129 yards and a TD on 6 catches, then putting up a 137 yard and 3 TD game vs Wisconsin and 87 yard 1 TD game against Alabama. Smith's whopping 28.2 yards per catch absolutely dwarf every other receiving in that category. The only other player close is Miami's Philip Dorsett with 24 yards per catch (who I actually really like too as a slot guy). He may not be a #1 WR type, and by no means do I believe he's the next ODB, but he brings somethings that our team has been lacking, and makes a very nice complement to keep the safety off the LOS and open up routes for other receivers. 2. Owamagbe Odighizuwa-OLB-UCLA, 6-4 266 4.79 Unless Ahmad Brooks restructures, I don't see him returning, as the cap hit will be too high. On a team that had pass rush issues last season and under a new DC who loves to rotate the pass-rushers, I think the position will be high on the list. Enter in Odighizuwa. With a strong combine I think he moves into the second round, but I don't see h im going higher due to the medical history. "Owa" has experience in the 3-4 and reportedly had a nice senior bowl, showing he could set the edge well in the run game, as well as disengage to rush the passer. Additionally, the long arms attribute he possesses will increase his value to teams like ours. 3. Henry Anderson-DE-Stanford, 6-6 296 5.06 Boasts a perfect 3-4 DE frame and has the experience and production (8 sacks, 14.5 TFL) in the scheme to warrant consideration here. We'll see if he rises further than this at the combine, but Anderson is a guy I think the 49ers would love to add to the DE rotation. After the depature of McDonald and potential loss of "Cowboy", the 49ers must certainly think about reloading at DL. Anderson was reportedly dominant at the Senior Bowl. 4. Jeremy Langford-RB-Michigan State, 6-0 211 4.47 Langford is one of the better backs in this class, but the problem is this is such a RB-heavy class, he's likely going to fall much later than he otherwise would have. Langford runs a bit upright but he finishes his runs well, lowering the shoulder to plow through the defender for extra yards or for touchdowns at the goal line. He also is a top notch pass protector and catches the ball out of the backfield well. All in all, he's been a productive starter in a pro style scheme and should warrant attention in the middle rounds at the latest due to his great combination of skills and athleticism. 4. Ali Marpet-OL-Hobart, 6-3 307 4.92 Remember this name on draft day because this is one of the most intriguing players in this year's class. Since high school, Marpet has been a man amongst boys, and he continued his dominance into his collegiate years. A two-time team captain and an absolute nightmare in terms of physical ability, Marpet's coaches laud his work ethic and effort in developing the technical aspects of his game and not simply relying on his athleticism. Marpet likely will slide inside at the NFL level, at the senior bowl he lined up at left tackle. He started every game at left tackle for Hobart and did not allow a single sack while helping his offense rank 6th in the nation. Not only was he selected as an AFCA All-American, he also earned the Offensive Player of the Year award... AS AN OFFENSIVE LINEMAN. While some will be critical of his accolades because they were attained at the DIII level, it's hard to ignore a player this supremely talented. His potential is off the charts. Virtually every NFL team sent scouts to watch Marpet this season, and at the Senior Bowl Marpet reportedly stone-walled projected 1st-2nd round pick Nate Orchard. 5. Eric Rowe-FS/CB-Utah, 6-1 204 4.53 Rowe moved to CB for the 2014 after the team lost McGill, but I think his best fit in the NFL might be at the safety position, where he played in his three prior seasons in college. Outstanding in run support and generally a reliable open field tackler, I think the 49ers likely have him on their radar. They've been scouting safeties -- likely due to the factors of Reid/Ward's injury histories and Bethea's age -- and I think it's probable that they take one this year. Rowe was incredibly productive over his career and I think could go as high as the 3rd to a team that falls in love with him. 6. Blake Bell-TE-Oklahoma, 6-6 263 4.76 The former QB-turned-TE I think is a guy the 49ers would love to have come in and develop at TE. Bell bring a lot of upside to the position and would be a massive Red Zone target. While Vernon will be here in 2015, things get really uncertain for the next off-season, especially if McDonald and Carrier are not healthy for 2015 or cannot stay healthy. I expect a lot of turnover at the TE position going into the 2016 season and having a guy in development would be a good idea. 7. Devin Gardner-WR-Michigan, 6-4 217 4.62 Gardner would obviously be a developmental guy, but he has shown some skill for the position and brings the element of height this team has been looking for lately. Gardner is another player the 49ers spoke to at the East West Shrine practices. 7. Terry Poole-OT-San Diego State, 6-5 307 5.22 Poole has the versatility to play both tackle spots with a year of starting experience at both, including this past season at left tackle. He reportedly started off his East Shrine week slow but caught on pretty quickly as the week went on and eventually looked like one of the top players there. Mayock listed him as one of the 10 most impressive that week and listed him as a very sound technician. He would be a nice prospect to pickup in the later rounds here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quick-look depth chart changes: RB - Gore, Hyde, Hunter, Langford TE - Vernon, McDonald, Carrier, Millard (TE/FB), Bell* OL - Staley, Kilgore, Martin, Boone, Davis, J.Martin, Thomas, Farrell, Looney, Marpet*, Poole* WR - Boldin, S.Johnson, Patton, Ellington, D.Smith*, Gardner* DE - Carradine, Dorsey, TJE, Anderson*, Ramsey, Okoye NT - Williams, Dial, Purcell ILB - Willis, Bowman, Borland, Wilhoite, Moody OLB - Aldon, Lynch, Lemonier, Odighizuwa*, Chase Thomas S - Reid, Bethea, McCray, Rowe*, Ward (S/CB)

Jan 31, 2015 at 5:01 PM

GorefullBore
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Posts: 4,453

I like it for the most part, I'm just not sure about Devin Smith that high. I'm just not sure if he is much more than a one trick pony, granted that is a trick we need, but at 15 I think you want more of a multifaceted guy. Maybe he would be a trade down possibility or maybe I'm wrong and he is the next Beckham Jr. I like the rest of the draft beyond that though great job as always OTC.

Jan 31, 2015 at 5:08 PM

communist
Veteran
Posts: 12,481

1)According to the CBS-report, his route tree was very limited. I don't know about that one. The guy sounds like Martavis Bryant. Headscratcher, imho.
I mean, Aldon Smith was a top-15 pick, iirc. AJ Jenkins could have been picked at the beginning of round 2 by the Rams (CBS had him 58 ovr though), Jimmie Ward was viewed as a 1-2nd round prospect by CBS, Eric Reid was a 1st-2nd round pick.
Here, we sit in the middle of the 1st round and you pick a guy who is 46th ovr. We are talking about a difference of a round. I don't know about that one. Save for AJ Jenkins, Baalke never reached that far.

2)Ok.

3)t-Rex arms, won't be picked by us

Though, Borland says hello to me.

4)If he is that good, I'd pick him in round 3.

5)like it, want to see us pick a reliable Safety-backup anyway.

6)we need a TE sooner or later. Like it.

The remaining guys, I don't really care.

Jan 31, 2015 at 5:16 PM

sf_nicoya
Member
Posts: 525

drafting devin smith in the 1st after all the bs we endured this offseason would be the final kick to the nuts.

Jan 31, 2015 at 5:36 PM

crew
Veteran
Posts: 805

I like Smith as well, Niners can trade down 8-10 spots in 1st to get him and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd. Both Smith and Dorsett will be gone by Niners 2nd round pick.
Niners might be better off taking White or Parker at #15.
I prefer Preston Smith DE in the 3rd over Anderson and Xavier Williams NT at the end of the 4th with the comp pick.
I lean to taking Duke Johnson RB in the 2nd, but Langford would be my 2nd RB choice.
Like the Marpet OL and the Gardner WR picks. Would take Byron Jones CB UConn over Rowe in the 5th.

[ Edited by crew on Jan 31, 2015 at 5:36 PM ]

Jan 31, 2015 at 5:38 PM

genus49
Moderator
Posts: 28,577

I don't think it's wise to mock someone who has no business going there just because you think Baalke somehow drafts to make fans mad. If he's gonna do that then he'd draft Sammie Coates there since he's arguably a better one trick pony than Smith and has better size.

Jan 31, 2015 at 5:53 PM

communist
Veteran
Posts: 12,481

Originally posted by genus49:
I don't think it's wise to mock someone who has no business going there just because you think Baalke somehow drafts to make fans mad. If he's gonna do that then he'd draft Sammie Coates there since he's arguably a better one trick pony than Smith and has better size.

He said, Baalke was picking guys we weren't expecting to be picked by us in the first round at all.

Jan 31, 2015 at 6:01 PM

DeUh
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Posts: 4,006

Huge fan of Langford in the middle rounds and agree with your assessment. High chance he makes it into my 2nd version.

Jan 31, 2015 at 6:14 PM

LasVegasWally
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Posts: 24,903

VERY interesting.

HATE the 1st round pick

If Skuya resings will Odighizuha pick be moot?

Also hoping for Henry Anderson

VERY interesting pick - Marpet

Good job!

Jan 31, 2015 at 6:50 PM

OnTheClock
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38,710

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
VERY interesting.

HATE the 1st round pick

If Skuya resings will Odighizuha pick be moot?

Also hoping for Henry Anderson

VERY interesting pick - Marpet

Good job!

Glad to hear you hate the first rounder

means it could be fairly accurate. Right now Smith is projected to go at the top of the second round. I think between he and Coates I actually like Smith more because of his quickness. His change of direction, to put it plainly, is better than Coates. He would need to develop his route tree but I believe he can do it.

I would love to be wrong in my projection that Trent would reach or pick a low need position. I just feel that history suggests we should probably not get hopes up too much there. I do anticipate a solid draft overall though.

Jan 31, 2015 at 7:05 PM

#10

m_brockalexander
Veteran
Posts: 13,379

Definitely an interesting mock.

Absolutely baffled by the 1st round pick, but love the 2nd - 6th round picks. Hate the Devin Gardner pick. Seems like a big waste of a pick even for a 7th rounder. Then again, I see your point about Baalke's draft history. What about the comp picks? Developmental QB and another defensive linemen perhaps?

Jan 31, 2015 at 7:15 PM

#11

GORO
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Posts: 2,251

I think your on to something with the first pick but maybe Jalen Strong wr instead passing on higher ranked wr. Also with Logan as the Qb coach and former ECU coach he has seen Hardy Justin could be a latter pick. But Maybe they go DL with the first pick.

Jan 31, 2015 at 7:17 PM

#12

OnTheClock
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38,710

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Definitely an interesting mock.

Absolutely baffled by the 1st round pick, but love the 2nd - 6th round picks. Hate the Devin Gardner pick. Seems like a big waste of a pick even for a 7th rounder. Then again, I see your point about Baalke's draft history. What about the comp picks? Developmental QB and another defensive linemen perhaps?

I was thinking the team might target the kid from Southeast Louisiana, Bryan Bennett. All that kid needs is to do is hammer down the fundamentals of the QB position both physically and mentally to the level where he can maintain consistency at it. Right now, the obvious knock is he relies too much on athleticism and doesn't have the rocket arm. He's very similar to Russell Wilson except is more of a project in terms of technique and will have a harder adjustment coming from a small school. If he was in a major conference, he'd probably be looked at a round higher. But he's one guy I'd be hopeful they'd consider.

Jan 31, 2015 at 7:26 PM

#13

OnTheClock
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Posts: 38,710

Originally posted by GORO:
I think your on to something with the first pick but maybe Jalen Strong wr instead passing on higher ranked wr. Also with Logan as the Qb coach and former ECU coach he has seen Hardy Justin could be a latter pick. But Maybe they go DL with the first pick.

I think Justin Smith is a big key to the draft. I think we will take a strong look at DL and WR for the first pick with OLB being a dark horse since Brooks likely won't be back.

If we go DL, I think we strongly consider Malcom Brown who I'm a big fan of. Scouts project him as a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 penetrator with the versatility to line up on the nose if asked to do so. The league is moving towards the heavier side when it comes to 3-4 DEs. Most of our fans are unaware that the 49ers have one of the lighter DLs in the league among 3-4 teams, so that's something to keep in mind come draft day. There are a lot of nice DL prospects that you might not originally have thought were fits.

I'll throw some other names at you: Xavier Cooper at Washington State (who runs a 3-4), Mario Edwards (FSU), Kaleb Eulls (Mississipi State), Derrick Lott (Chattanooga), and Ray Drew (Georgia, and a very athletic high upside guy. Could run in the 4.7s or 4.8 at 285 pounds)

Jan 31, 2015 at 7:28 PM

#14

GORO
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Posts: 2,251

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
I think Justin Smith is a big key to the draft. I think we will take a strong look at DL and WR for the first pick with OLB being a dark horse since Brooks likely won't be back.

If we go DL, I think we strongly consider Malcom Brown who I'm a big fan of. Scouts project him as a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 penetrator with the versatility to line up on the nose if asked to do so. The league is moving towards the heavier side when it comes to 3-4 DEs. Most of our fans are unaware that the 49ers have one of the lighter DLs in the league among 3-4 teams, so that's something to keep in mind come draft day. There are a lot of nice DL prospects that you might not originally have thought were fits.

I'll throw some other names at you: Xavier Cooper at Washington State (who runs a 3-4), Mario Edwards (FSU), Kaleb Eulls (Mississipi State), Derrick Lott (Chattanooga), and Ray Drew (Georgia, and a very athletic high upside guy. Could run in the 4.7s or 4.8 at 285 pounds)

That is why I come here to learn from you and MADDOG