OTC's Final Big 254 Draft Board

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

thoughts for today

I believe the 49ers will target the BPA with the next two picks, and not necessarily a QB like many think. While I don't think we'll leave this draft without drafting a QB, it may not be until the 4th or later.

Positions I believe the 49ers will focus on in our next two picks will likely be CB and DL. However, RB and WR aren't out of the question with guys like Ryan Williams, Kendall Hunter, and LeShoure still out there and Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, etc.

If you're a 49ers fan who doesn't mind seeing Alex Smith coming back, you should hope for the BPA to be our next pick. QB likely will not be the BPA at 45, but we'll see what Baalke and Co. decide to do.

Stephan Paea

Indeed, he could very well be sitting there at 45. It has been debated that he's not the best fit as a 3-4 NT prospect, but we all know you don't have to be a 340 pound monster to play NT, especially in Fangio's scheme.

I think in regard to a QB, people need to understand that getting a later-round QB is a much better plan if Alex is indeed coming back like it seems may happen. Clearly, no rookie is going to outperform a solid (though unspectacular) veteran in their first year, barring a miracle.

So letting us develop a guy while Alex starts will put us in a position to still WIN next year and then likely via trades, etc., we can go and get "the guy" that will be our franchise QB next year; someone way, way more NFL ready than any of this year's crop.

Look at the possible QB's in next years crop: Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Robert Griffin, Terrelle Pryor, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Lindley, Nick Foles, and Kellen Moore. I mean, wow! This is not the year to draft for your future.

Thank you for listing all the potential QBs for next year. I agree that forcing a move just to "get a QB" this year is a bad strategy. The only way they do that is if Alex Smith tells Harbaugh TODAY that he will not come back next season.

All signs now point to Alex being back and that means the pressure to use an extra pick or two to move up and get Dalton or Kaepernick are now off. The 49ers can now sit and wait for a better value at QB. In the meantime they can fill needs with BPA.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

thoughts for today

I believe the 49ers will target the BPA with the next two picks, and not necessarily a QB like many think. While I don't think we'll leave this draft without drafting a QB, it may not be until the 4th or later.

Positions I believe the 49ers will focus on in our next two picks will likely be CB and DL. However, RB and WR aren't out of the question with guys like Ryan Williams, Kendall Hunter, and LeShoure still out there and Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, etc.

If you're a 49ers fan who doesn't mind seeing Alex Smith coming back, you should hope for the BPA to be our next pick. QB likely will not be the BPA at 45, but we'll see what Baalke and Co. decide to do.

Stephan Paea

Indeed, he could very well be sitting there at 45. It has been debated that he's not the best fit as a 3-4 NT prospect, but we all know you don't have to be a 340 pound monster to play NT, especially in Fangio's scheme.

I think in regard to a QB, people need to understand that getting a later-round QB is a much better plan if Alex is indeed coming back like it seems may happen. Clearly, no rookie is going to outperform a solid (though unspectacular) veteran in their first year, barring a miracle.

So letting us develop a guy while Alex starts will put us in a position to still WIN next year and then likely via trades, etc., we can go and get "the guy" that will be our franchise QB next year; someone way, way more NFL ready than any of this year's crop.

Look at the possible QB's in next years crop: Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Robert Griffin, Terrelle Pryor, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Lindley, Nick Foles, and Kellen Moore. I mean, wow! This is not the year to draft for your future.

Completely agree. This year if we grab a QB 4th or later I'd be okay...if mentoring takes, we get a steal..if it doesn't next season's draft looks to be richer at QB. Forcing the draft when we still have so many other needs is a mistake. Even without Alex, there's a number of FAs that we might be able to get to hold down the fort while we develop someone.

As for Paea, he may not be 340..but he is 6'1 (low) and very strong. I was very impressed with his season.

[ Edited by Jakemall on Apr 29, 2011 at 12:16:52 ]

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Here is a link to Rich Gosselin. He beat ESPN and SI guys on the first day. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/nfl-draft/20110429-dallas-morning-news_rick-gosselin-out-predicts-espn-si-on-cowboys-nfl-draft.ece

"Our guys" faired rather well.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Here is a link to Rich Gosselin. He beat ESPN and SI guys on the first day. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/nfl-draft/20110429-dallas-morning-news_rick-gosselin-out-predicts-espn-si-on-cowboys-nfl-draft.ece

"Our guys" faired rather well.

Without insider knowledge, it's very difficult to predict "exact" picks. This is why for us, the aim is more towards "most number of picks correct within a given range" and trying to get in a general area of the pick. If you get lucky and land a few direct hits, great, but the major aim is to get the most number correct in those three different ranges -- Top 32, 64, and 254.

The Top 64 and 254 obviously still remain to be seen.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Apr 29, 2011 at 12:43:28 ]

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Here is a link to Rich Gosselin. He beat ESPN and SI guys on the first day. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/nfl-draft/20110429-dallas-morning-news_rick-gosselin-out-predicts-espn-si-on-cowboys-nfl-draft.ece

"Our guys" faired rather well.

Without insider knowledge, it's very difficult to predict "exact" picks. This is why for us, the aim is more towards "most number of picks correct within a given range" and trying to get in a general area of the pick. If you get lucky and land a few direct hits, great, but the major aim is to get the most number correct in those three different ranges -- Top 32, 64, and 254.

The Top 64 and 254 obviously still remain to be seen.

Gosselin was right on in the top 8 but outside the 4 slot window on quite a few in the second half. Looks like you and MD were pretty close.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Here is a link to Rich Gosselin. He beat ESPN and SI guys on the first day. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/nfl-draft/20110429-dallas-morning-news_rick-gosselin-out-predicts-espn-si-on-cowboys-nfl-draft.ece

"Our guys" faired rather well.

Without insider knowledge, it's very difficult to predict "exact" picks. This is why for us, the aim is more towards "most number of picks correct within a given range" and trying to get in a general area of the pick. If you get lucky and land a few direct hits, great, but the major aim is to get the most number correct in those three different ranges -- Top 32, 64, and 254.

The Top 64 and 254 obviously still remain to be seen.

Gosselin was right on in the top 8 but outside the 4 slot window on quite a few in the second half. Looks like you and MD were pretty close.

Gosselin and Mayock were outstanding, but that isn't too surprising as those two are arguably the two best professional draftniks in the business and obviously have a heck of a lot more connections than MD and I. (As far as I know, we both have zero connections so, anyone would have more connections than us).

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Apr 29, 2011 at 12:56:45 ]

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Here is a link to Rich Gosselin. He beat ESPN and SI guys on the first day. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/nfl-draft/20110429-dallas-morning-news_rick-gosselin-out-predicts-espn-si-on-cowboys-nfl-draft.ece

"Our guys" faired rather well.

Without insider knowledge, it's very difficult to predict "exact" picks. This is why for us, the aim is more towards "most number of picks correct within a given range" and trying to get in a general area of the pick. If you get lucky and land a few direct hits, great, but the major aim is to get the most number correct in those three different ranges -- Top 32, 64, and 254.

The Top 64 and 254 obviously still remain to be seen.

Gosselin was right on in the top 8 but outside the 4 slot window on quite a few in the second half. Looks like you and MD were pretty close.

Gosselin and Mayock were outstanding, but that isn't too surprising as those two are arguably the two best professional draftniks in the business and obviously have a heck of a lot more connections that MD and I. (As far as I know, we both have zero connections so, anyone would have more connections than us).

Those f**kers might as well buy a NFL team because they already have a key ingredient of the component which is a team of scouts. Imagine if you guys had a team of scouts: it would be a lot of money wasted for a difference of a few picks.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Here is a link to Rich Gosselin. He beat ESPN and SI guys on the first day. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/nfl-draft/20110429-dallas-morning-news_rick-gosselin-out-predicts-espn-si-on-cowboys-nfl-draft.ece

"Our guys" faired rather well.

Without insider knowledge, it's very difficult to predict "exact" picks. This is why for us, the aim is more towards "most number of picks correct within a given range" and trying to get in a general area of the pick. If you get lucky and land a few direct hits, great, but the major aim is to get the most number correct in those three different ranges -- Top 32, 64, and 254.

The Top 64 and 254 obviously still remain to be seen.

Gosselin was right on in the top 8 but outside the 4 slot window on quite a few in the second half. Looks like you and MD were pretty close.

Gosselin and Mayock were outstanding, but that isn't too surprising as those two are arguably the two best professional draftniks in the business and obviously have a heck of a lot more connections than MD and I. (As far as I know, we both have zero connections so, anyone would have more connections than us).

We also posted our final board two days away from the draft. They post theirs on draft day, when some of the settling begins to take place. However, I still bow down to Gosselin. He is the king of the first round.

Updated Accuracy Tracking:

Quote:
Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: 54.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Bump for tracking update.


Accuracy tracking (within four picks or better):

Direct hit on Newton at 1, and Taylor at 21.
Within 1 pick of Dareus, Von Miller, Peterson, and Jimmy Smith.
Within 2 picks of Muhammad Wilkerson.
Within 3 picks of Julio Jones.
Within 4 picks of Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Locker, Quinn, Liuget, Kerrigan, Pouncey, and Castonzo.


Total correct out of top 32: 26.

Total correct out of top 64: TBD.

Total correct out of all 254: TBD.

Now show me a comparison between you and the "experts".

Here is a link to Rich Gosselin. He beat ESPN and SI guys on the first day. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/nfl-draft/20110429-dallas-morning-news_rick-gosselin-out-predicts-espn-si-on-cowboys-nfl-draft.ece

"Our guys" faired rather well.

Without insider knowledge, it's very difficult to predict "exact" picks. This is why for us, the aim is more towards "most number of picks correct within a given range" and trying to get in a general area of the pick. If you get lucky and land a few direct hits, great, but the major aim is to get the most number correct in those three different ranges -- Top 32, 64, and 254.

The Top 64 and 254 obviously still remain to be seen.

Gosselin was right on in the top 8 but outside the 4 slot window on quite a few in the second half. Looks like you and MD were pretty close.

Gosselin and Mayock were outstanding, but that isn't too surprising as those two are arguably the two best professional draftniks in the business and obviously have a heck of a lot more connections than MD and I. (As far as I know, we both have zero connections so, anyone would have more connections than us).

We also posted our final board two days away from the draft. They post theirs on draft day, when some of the settling begins to take place. However, I still bow down to Gosselin. He is the king of the first round.

This is also true, so we deserve a little leeway, don't we?

I'm really impressed at how close you came on which positions we hit at what rounds. Kinda interesting too how hard it was to find value in the NT position along with our other needs. Guess we'll have to throw some dough at Franklin. heh

Originally posted by Walsh:
I'm really impressed at how close you came on which positions we hit at what rounds. Kinda interesting too how hard it was to find value in the NT position along with our other needs. Guess we'll have to throw some dough at Franklin. heh

everyone is quick to forget anput Ricky Jen Francious, who filled in admirably for Franklin, and was dominant in pre season against first stringers, he is the future.

Originally posted by ninerlifer:

Originally posted by Walsh:
I'm really impressed at how close you came on which positions we hit at what rounds. Kinda interesting too how hard it was to find value in the NT position along with our other needs. Guess we'll have to throw some dough at Franklin. heh

everyone is quick to forget anput Ricky Jen Francious, who filled in admirably for Franklin, and was dominant in pre season against first stringers, he is the future.

he was good in preseason but against green bay when he took over NT he was dominated and thrown 2 yards back waay too often i thin he may need another season of lifting weights and getting ready for the position before he can take over

Originally posted by Walsh:
I'm really impressed at how close you came on which positions we hit at what rounds. Kinda interesting too how hard it was to find value in the NT position along with our other needs. Guess we'll have to throw some dough at Franklin. heh

I appreciate the kind words. I think the only player we really liked was Phil Taylor, and if we had traded down I think he would've been considered for the pick if Aldon Smith wasn't there.

After that, we apparently weren't crazy about anybody. I imagine we'll have to bring someone in to compete at nose tackle either as an UDFA or UFA on the market if Franklin really does go elsewhere.

In my opinion, the "value" picks we landed were Kendall Hunter, Ronald Johnson, and Bruce Miller (if we use him as an LB). Hunter had a 2nd rounder value, and Johnson was a 4th-5th rounder. Miller a 5th-6th. After that, the rest were basically par-value picks.