Drafting a QB

Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Assuming that life continues to be strange and odd things happen if Miller and Peterson were selected in picks 1-6 and Newton was still on the board would we take him or would we trade back? Is he plutonium grade talent, and could Harbaugh mold him into a quality QB?

He won't be but trade back. Plutonium grade raw material has good trade value.

You forgot the keyword, keyword being raw....Rigth now his attitude is like Brandon Lloyd X 10.

So no Newton even if available? How about if Gabbert was available?

Just about every qb hungry team's fan base is talking exactly like this board. Listen to NFL network on Satellite radio, I keep hearing about how they'll grab 2nd tier qb talent in Ponder, Dalton etc. That'll either lead to a slide for Newton, Gabbert if they're right, or a run on 2nd tier qbs if they're gone.

Originally posted by Nuns:
Just about every qb hungry team's fan base is talking exactly like this board. Listen to NFL network on Satellite radio, I keep hearing about how they'll grab 2nd tier qb talent in Ponder, Dalton etc. That'll either lead to a slide for Newton, Gabbert if they're right, or a run on 2nd tier qbs if they're gone.

Fan bases rarely want the qb selection. Unless it's a slam dunk pick they're alot less ballsy than GM's and coaches

GM's and coaches have the pressure on them to succeed immediately. Fans don't. Most fans will look at Luck and Barkely coming out next year and say I like them better than Gabbert and Newton so if we don't grab a quarterback this year it's okay. GM's and coaches can't think like that. You pass on Matt Ryan for Chad Henne in the 2nd and you're going to have very short tenure as coach.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/QB-1980-now.htm

In looking over this list of all the QB's drafted over the last thirty years, two things jump out. The first is that while taking QB's in the first round is obviously risky given that a significant number of them bust out, the odds of drafting a decent QB after the first round are drastically lower. This is well covered territory in other posts, so I won't go on and on about it. The other thing that is pretty interesting (at least to me) is that of all the QB success stories in rounds 2-7+, almost none of them had their greatest success with the team that drafted them. People cite examples like Matt Hasselbeck and Marc Bulger as late round success stories, (and rightfully so) but neither one became the QB we remember until they moved on from GB and NO, respectively. In going back over it, the only two late round successes that stuck with their original teams are Tom Brady and David Garrard. Drew Brees had two great years with SD, but when all is said and done his career in NO will be all that anybody remembers.

All of the above leads me to this point: whether or not you're in love with Blaine Gabbert or not, history suggests that he has around a 50% chance of succeeding as a first-round pick. The success rate of QB's taken after the first round (with their original teams) is less than 10%. For someone like me, who's taken a shining to Andy Dalton, that's pretty sobering information.

As far as i know, im sure that those who are grading both Cam or even any other players about having an attitude, or not coachable, or hard to coach, are the same people who's got the most interest with the same players... they do this in order to have a shot at drafting the same players that they are bad mouthing..

Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Assuming that life continues to be strange and odd things happen if Miller and Peterson were selected in picks 1-6 and Newton was still on the board would we take him or would we trade back? Is he plutonium grade talent, and could Harbaugh mold him into a quality QB?

IF Newton is there we draft him. Franchise QB trumps all. Especially one who isnt a choke artist like Gabbert, Mallet or Locker.

Either look for a fair trade, or pick a guy like Robert Quinn. Newton is a very intriguing prospect, but I don't know how he would fit in with our team. We need a pocket QB.

i can pretty much guarentee we are not gonna pick a qb with our first pick

were one of three teams in top12 that havent called newton for a private workout and we didnt go to his proday

gabbert we attended his proday but havent called him in for a private workout


in addition to that we have looed at almost all the 2 round and third round qb prospects avaliable


the million dollar question is who is harbaugh looking at qb it has to be a FA

either mcnabb or alex smith

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
i can pretty much guarentee we are not gonna pick a qb with our first pick

were one of three teams in top12 that havent called newton for a private workout and we didnt go to his proday

gabbert we attended his proday but havent called him in for a private workout


in addition to that we have looed at almost all the 2 round and third round qb prospects avaliable


the million dollar question is who is harbaugh looking at qb it has to be a FA

either mcnabb or alex smith

the problem with this offseason is that we might have to stick with Alex Smith. If all the CBA mess takes a while to clear up, I fully expect Smith to be back. That's just my opinion of course.

Originally posted by saniner:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
i can pretty much guarentee we are not gonna pick a qb with our first pick

were one of three teams in top12 that havent called newton for a private workout and we didnt go to his proday

gabbert we attended his proday but havent called him in for a private workout


in addition to that we have looed at almost all the 2 round and third round qb prospects avaliable


the million dollar question is who is harbaugh looking at qb it has to be a FA

either mcnabb or alex smith

the problem with this offseason is that we might have to stick with Alex Smith. If all the CBA mess takes a while to clear up, I fully expect Smith to be back. That's just my opinion of course.

honestly it looks that way the team likes him and harbaugh likes him

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by saniner:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
i can pretty much guarentee we are not gonna pick a qb with our first pick

were one of three teams in top12 that havent called newton for a private workout and we didnt go to his proday

gabbert we attended his proday but havent called him in for a private workout


in addition to that we have looed at almost all the 2 round and third round qb prospects avaliable


the million dollar question is who is harbaugh looking at qb it has to be a FA

either mcnabb or alex smith

the problem with this offseason is that we might have to stick with Alex Smith. If all the CBA mess takes a while to clear up, I fully expect Smith to be back. That's just my opinion of course.

honestly it looks that way the team likes him and harbaugh likes him

I would be ok with it, as long as we draft a QB early. A guy like Dalton, Kaepernick, Stanzi...I would be ok with that

Originally posted by PloomDG:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/QB-1980-now.htm

In looking over this list of all the QB's drafted over the last thirty years, two things jump out. The first is that while taking QB's in the first round is obviously risky given that a significant number of them bust out, the odds of drafting a decent QB after the first round are drastically lower. This is well covered territory in other posts, so I won't go on and on about it. The other thing that is pretty interesting (at least to me) is that of all the QB success stories in rounds 2-7+, almost none of them had their greatest success with the team that drafted them. People cite examples like Matt Hasselbeck and Marc Bulger as late round success stories, (and rightfully so) but neither one became the QB we remember until they moved on from GB and NO, respectively. In going back over it, the only two late round successes that stuck with their original teams are Tom Brady and David Garrard. Drew Brees had two great years with SD, but when all is said and done his career in NO will be all that anybody remembers.

All of the above leads me to this point: whether or not you're in love with Blaine Gabbert or not, history suggests that he has around a 50% chance of succeeding as a first-round pick. The success rate of QB's taken after the first round (with their original teams) is less than 10%. For someone like me, who's taken a shining to Andy Dalton, that's pretty sobering information.

I looked at the chart that you used to draw your conclusions. I will look at again, but my first take is that the statistics provide have very little predictive value.

I did not crunch the numbers, and in fact I am not even sure if I have the statistical skills to do so, but it does not look like 50% quarterbacks picked in the first round (edit in bold) can be considered successful.

And even if they could be that success rate is not much better than what you get by flipping a coin.

Clearly there can be no disputing the difficulty of picking a good quarterback.

Put this way, picking a QB in the first round does not enhance the chances that the QB picked will prove to be good.

edit:

I looked at the chart again. There are many worthy quarterbacks that were picked after the 1st round. In rounds 2 to 10, I found almost thirty that have been decent or better. A good number have made the pro bowl at least one time.

In the end it means, that we have a decent chance to find a QB after the first round.

Here is the list.

2nd round

1. Brett Favre 19 year starter, three times all pro, eleven pro bowls
2. Randall Cunningham seven year starter, once all pro, four pro bowls
3. Drew Brees nine year starter, once all pro, five pro bowls
4. Boomer Esiason 12 year starter, once all pro, four pro bowls
5. Neil Lomax seven year starter, two pro bowls
6. Kordell Stewart six year starter one pro bowl
7. Charlie Batch four year starter
8. Jake Plummer 10 year starter, one pro bowl

3rd round

9. Matt Schaub- four year starter one pro bowl
10. Jay Schroeder eight year starter
11. Neil O'Donnell seven year starter, one pro bowl
12. Jeff Hostetler starter for six years, one pro bowl
13. Brian Griese five year starter one pro bowl
14. Jay Schroeder eight year starter, one pro bowl

4th round

15. David Garrard five year starter one pro bowl
16. Kyle Orton four year starter
17. Scott Mitchell five year starter
18. Rich Gannon eight year starter, twice all pro, four all pro bowls

5th round

17. Mark Brunell eleven year starter three pro bowls

6th round

18. Derek Anderson three year starter one pro bowl
19. Matt Hasselbeck nine year starter 3 pro bowls
20. Mark Rypien five year starter, two pro bowls
21 Jeff Blake eight year starter, one pro bowl

7th round

22. Tom Brady nine year starter, twice all pro, six pro bowls
23. Gus Frerotte five year starter one pro bowl
24. Matt Cassel three year starter, one pro bowl

8th round

25. Wade Wilson four year starter, one pro bowl
26. Trent Green seven year starter two pro bowls

9th round

27. Brad Johnson eight year starter, two pro bowls

10th round

28. Doug Flutie four year starter, one pro bowl