Draft History by Position - Starting with QB

So essentially we need to draft Christian Ponder, Ricky Stanzi, AND Colin Kaepernick this year to better increase our chances at landing a franchise qb?

Sold.

Your list is interesting, but I don't know that we will be able to predict which QBs will succeed in this draft based on your ratings. It does make me think that the 49ers are a bit quick to cut ties with Alex Smith without having a successor in mind. While Alex hasn't been great, there are plenty of worse QBs in the league, and in the draft.

A great QB and the 49ers would be a annual Super Bowl contender. We have a great QB coach/guru in Harbaugh. Draft the best talent for him to work with, the guy that he wants, plant that seed and let it grow.

I would say QB in the NFL is the hardest position to draft for in all of sports. No one is an expert at it, even Bill Walsh made mistakes. We have had some great QBs wear red and gold, maybe we already got our 100 year allotment from the football gods. We might be stuck with mediocrity for a while.

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:
So essentially we need to draft Christian Ponder, Ricky Stanzi, AND Colin Kaepernick this year to better increase our chances at landing a franchise qb?

Sold.

lets do it.

Interesting site. What is amazing is how many QB's don't make it in the NFL. Having a coach like Holmgren/Reid pays off because they can find AND develop QB's.

Every time I look at these lists it makes we think we should spend the #7 pick on a QB. I know, that's not where the value is this year. But I really do think it's as simple as:

Taking a QB in the first = Low chance of getting a franchise QB

Taking a QB after the first = Almost no chance of getting a franchise QB


And when you look at it that way, I think I'd rather give myself a low chance than no chance.

Either way, it's all pretty depressing.

Interesting site. What is amazing is how many QB's don't make it in the NFL. Having a coach like Holmgren/Reid pays off because they can find AND develop QB's.

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:
So essentially we need to draft Christian Ponder, Ricky Stanzi, AND Colin Kaepernick this year to better increase our chances at landing a franchise qb?

Sold.

Lol... all three of those QB's you mention are interesting, but chances are only one or even none of those QB's will be a franchise QB... The numbers are actually a little better than I originally wrote.. I recounted 24 franchise QB's (1 undrafted) in 16 years so 1.5 QB's per year.

Originally posted by fryet:
Your list is interesting, but I don't know that we will be able to predict which QBs will succeed in this draft based on your ratings. It does make me think that the 49ers are a bit quick to cut ties with Alex Smith without having a successor in mind. While Alex hasn't been great, there are plenty of worse QBs in the league, and in the draft.

Yes. As mentioned on this thread it's extremely difficult to evaluate QB's. It's better to get the odds on your side though and doing this kind of analysis is one way that can help. I think Alex Smith is a good backup and can be developed. I'm on board with getting Palmer for a 3rd, keeping Smith as a backup and drafting one more in the later rounds. Harbaugh seems to have a knack for QB evaluation and development. (It's been noted that Harbaugh rated Garrard and Romo high so I trust his judgement. Romo and Garrard are two of the seven non-first round franchise QB's in the past 16 years.)

Originally posted by BobS:
I would say QB in the NFL is the hardest position to draft for in all of sports. No one is an expert at it, even Bill Walsh made mistakes. We have had some great QBs wear red and gold, maybe we already got our 100 year allotment from the football gods. We might be stuck with mediocrity for a while.

I agree that the QB position is one of the hardest positions to draft for.

The football gods brought us Harbaugh so things may be looking up.

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
Every time I look at these lists it makes we think we should spend the #7 pick on a QB. I know, that's not where the value is this year. But I really do think it's as simple as:

Taking a QB in the first = Low chance of getting a franchise QB

Taking a QB after the first = Almost no chance of getting a franchise QB


And when you look at it that way, I think I'd rather give myself a low chance than no chance.

Either way, it's all pretty depressing.

I can see where you are coming from, but I think being selective and diligent is the key. Note 17 out of 38 first rounders became franchise QB's... roughly 45%. I wouldn't use a first rounder unless I was confident about a particular QB. There were 17 first round franchise QB's in the last sixteen years and 7 that were non-first rounders. 70% were first rounders / 30% were non-first rounders:

Non-first rounders:
187 Matt Hasselbeck Packers Boston College
168 Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia
199 Tom Brady Patriots Michigan
108 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina
90 Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia
230 Matt Cassel Patriots USC
Undrafted: Tony Romo

Note: Harbaugh rated Romo and Garrard much higher than most so I'm optimistic about Harbaugh's ability to select some good non-first rounders.

Originally posted by rubbersoul80:
Interesting site. What is amazing is how many QB's don't make it in the NFL. Having a coach like Holmgren/Reid pays off because they can find AND develop QB's.

That is a good point. It is interesting that Hasselbeck was developed under Holmgren and Reid in Green Bay as a backup to Favre. (Hasselbeck had an unimpressive college career.) Holmgren went to Seattle and pulled a trade for Hasselbeck in 2001. (Also interesting that Mike McCarthy was also QB coach along with Reid in 99.)

Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb can be considered to be developed under Andy Reid in Philly.

I think Philly and the Pats are the two teams that look for quarterbacks that fit their system. Belichick developed Matt Cassel as a backup to Brady, but that experience turned Cassel into a franchise QB. (Remember Cassel was a backup in college.)

These are exceptions though. Most QB's on the franchise list had impressive college careers.

Very few teams can find and develop QB's. Hopefully Harbaugh and the 49ers will be one of them.

Originally posted by Jd925:

Originally posted by rubbersoul80:
Interesting site. What is amazing is how many QB's don't make it in the NFL. Having a coach like Holmgren/Reid pays off because they can find AND develop QB's.

That is a good point. It is interesting that Hasselbeck was developed under Holmgren and Reid in Green Bay as a backup to Favre. (Hasselbeck had an unimpressive college career.) Holmgren went to Seattle and pulled a trade for Hasselbeck in 2001. (Also interesting that Mike McCarthy was also QB coach along with Reid in 99.)

Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb can be considered to be developed under Andy Reid in Philly.

I think Philly and the Pats are the two teams that look for quarterbacks that fit their system. Belichick developed Matt Cassel as a backup to Brady, but that experience turned Cassel into a franchise QB. (Remember Cassel was a backup in college.)

These are exceptions though. Most QB's on the franchise list had impressive college careers.

Very few teams can find and develop QB's. Hopefully Harbaugh and the 49ers will be one of them.

That's the main reason I was excited to see Harbaugh take the job...QB development has been seen as an unnecessary role in SF over the past six to eight years. He developed Luck at Stanford from an insecure young man to a monster QB who had the confidence to shine in a nationally significant bowl game.