Civil unrest, COVID-19, wildfires and subsequent apocalyptic skies could not prevent America's favorite pastime or the defending NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers from returning to the field this fall, and Niners Empire will be excited for the home opener against the retooled Arizona Cardinals this Sunday, even if its members will not be permitted in the stadium. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday September 13th, 2020 at 1:25pm (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -7, o/u 48
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback Kyler Murray enters his second year with the addition of elite and now very rich receiver DeAndre Hopkins, whose presence should open things up for Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Kenyan Drake in Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid offense. Right guard Marcus Gilbert was expected to start this season but has opted out and may be replaced by third-round pick Josh Jones. The Cardinals used four of six picks on defense, including first round selection on linebacker Isaiah Simmons from Clemson.
The Cardinals have a projected Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) of 1.0% and ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -1.2.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers will try to finish the job they came a quarter away from completing last season and the start of the new NFL season will be an opportunity to move on from the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs and strive to get back on the biggest stage.
After a tough loss, @gkittle46 promises he'll be back. pic.twitter.com/6MgTe3MMcj
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) February 5, 2020
The 49ers traded DeForrest Buckner but drafted defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw from South Carolina, and lost legendary tackle Joe Staley to retirement but traded for one of the best tackles in the game in Trent Williams. Kyle Shanahan looked like a kid on Christmas when he drafted wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, with expectations that rookie Aiyuk might immediately help a wide receiving corps that lost Emmanuel Sanders and sustained an offseason injury to Deebo Samuel. San Francisco added tight end Jordan Reed and unlike last season, receiver Trent Taylor and running back Jerick McKinnon are healthy for Week 1.
The Niners have a projected DVOA of 4.7% and ESPN FPI of 4.9.
Prediction
Whether the Super Bowl loser hangover is real or not, the Arizona Cardinals have been a tough out against the Niners over the past few years, particularly at Levi's Stadium. San Francisco has failed to cover the spread against Arizona in five straight games and it needed a miracle defensive fumble recovery with less than a minute left to overcome a 0-16 deficit and a fluke touchdown with no time remaining just to push a ten point spread the last time these two teams met at Levi's Stadium.
Throwback to this amazing play by @tmoore94 that sealed a W in a game that the #49ers trailed 16-0 to the Cardinals.
Moore had not been on a roster all year and was signed that week and made the game winning play 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Gm5ZiXElDp
— TheSFNiners (@TheSFNiners) September 9, 2020
NFL Week 11 2019, Cards @ 49ers
If you had the Cardinals +10 this was the worst push of all time. pic.twitter.com/OyQ6tktOgQ
— Spread Investor (@spreadinvestor) April 30, 2020
San Francisco is the team to beat in the NFC West but it's hard to believe that Kliff Kingbsury and Kyler Murray will be less competitive in their second years, now with DeAndre Hopkins on the field.
look at how Kliff Kingsbury adjusted his WR strategy from Week 9's meeting last year to the rematch just two weeks later.
Kyler went away from Sherman significantly more often in the rematch.
watching how he deploys WRs w Hopkins.
via the heat map tool: https://t.co/qkECa8CaDp pic.twitter.com/uLsx6dsWTx
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 10, 2020
We expect San Francisco to once again be an elite team in 2020 and to win this Week 1 matchup but given the improvements that the Cardinals have made, the expected developmental trajectory of their coach and quarterback, and the history between these two teams, seven points seem like too many.
Pick: Cardinals +7