Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers odds and pick - Week 8, 2019

Oct 22, 2019 at 3:18 PM0


It wasn't pretty, but the San Francisco 49ers shut out the Washington Redskins by the score of 9-0 on a soggy, muddy field in Maryland to remain undefeated and atop the NFC West standings as they near the midpoint of the season. Quarterback Kyle Allen is undefeated as a starter and will lead the surging Carolina Panthers fresh off a bye into their contest in Santa Clara on Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday October 27th, 2019 at 1:05pm PT (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -5.5, o/u 42

Carolina Panthers
After opening the season with back-to-back losses with Cam Newton under center, the Carolina Panthers have won four straight with Kyle Allen as the starting quarterback and Christian McCaffrey emerging as one of the most dominant running backs in the game. Carolina will be coming off of a bye after throttling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in London in Week 6 by the score of 37-26.

After seven weeks, Carolina ranks 11th in Football Outsiders' total DAVE rating at 9.5 percent (represents a combination of preseason projection and performance so far), 9th with a total DVOA of 13.1 percent, 16th in offensive DAVE at 0.3 percent, 21st in offensive DVOA at -2.8 percent, 4th in defensive DAVE at -7.1 percent and 3rd in defensive DVOA at -12.8 percent. The Panthers' offense ranks 20th with 353.0 yards per game, 5th with 27.7 points per game, 22nd with 223.5 passing yards per game and 9th with 129.5 rushing yards per game. Carolina's defense is 12th in giving up 344.0 yards per game, 15th in yielding 22.2 points per game, 7th with 225.0 passing yards conceded per game and 23rd in allowing 119.0 rushing yards per game.

The Panthers' offensive line is ranked 23rd in run blocking and 22nd in pass protection. Carolina's defensive line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards and 2nd in adjusted sack rate. Kyle Allen ranks 17th with a DYAR of 126 and 16th with a total QBR of 53.3. The Panthers have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 2.1 and are 4-2 ATS, including covering the number in four straight, and 4-2 to the over/under so far this season.

San Francisco 49ers
While the weather and field conditions were a major factor in San Francisco's muted offensive production in Week 7, injuries to the starting tackles and fullback may be catching up to the Niners' offense and contributing to its slight dip in production the past two weeks; but having the luxury of a suffocating defense that has only allowed ten points in its last three games, including zero points in Week 7, has helped San Francisco remain unblemished.

Through seven weeks, San Francisco is ranked 2nd in total DAVE at 25.2 percent, 2nd with a total DVOA of 39.1 percent, 18th in offensive DAVE at 0.1 percent, 15th with an offensive DVOA of 2.1 percent, 2nd in defensive DAVE at -26.4 percent and 2nd in defensive DVOA with -39.1 percent. The 49ers' offense is 7th with 387.2 yards per game, 11th with 26.0 points per game, 25th with 214.5 passing yards per game and 2nd with 172.7 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 223.5 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 10.7 points per game, 1st in giving up 133.5 passing yards per game and 8th in yielding 90.0 rushing yards per game.

The Niners' offensive line is ranked 3rd in run blocking and 5th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 10th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 18th with a DYAR of 105 and 9th with a total QBR of 59.2. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 6.1 and are 4-2 ATS and 1-5 to the over/under this season.

Prediction
We had the Niners beating the Panthers in our preseason analysis and are sticking with that prediction, but this Panthers team will be the best the Niners have faced this season and we anticipate a closer game based on Carolina being rested off of a bye and performing much better recently with Kyle Allen under center.

This game features two of the top defenses in the NFC with San Francisco and Carolina ranked 2nd and 3rd in defensive DVOA and 1st and 2nd adjusted sack rate, respectively. Even before the muddy game at Washington, San Francisco's rushing attack and passing offense had been subtly declining with the injuries to key offensive positions, which may have been part of the impetus to trade for Emmanuel Sanders from Denver.

The Panthers rank 30th in rushing defense DVOA and San Francisco will likely try to exploit that weakness and control the game by running the ball, while Carolina will no doubt feature Christian McCaffrey as a focal point of its offense. San Francisco and Carolina have the top two adjusted sack rates in the league and are likely to apply more pressure than either of these quarterbacks has experienced so far this season and that could disrupt the passing attacks and possibly contribute to turnovers.

Due to the Niners' smothering defense, the Under has hit in four straight contests, and anticipating a match up of two top defenses, we look for that trend to continue in Week 8. Pick: Under 42

Season:
SU: 2-4
ATS: 2-4

Poll

  • What is your best bet for Niners vs Panthers on 10/27/19?
  • 49ers -5.5
    56%
  • Under 42
    24%
  • Panthers +5.5
    12%
  • Over 42
    8%
  • 1,636 votes
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals odds and pick - Week 5, 2021

By Winston Chung
Oct 5

The San Francisco 49ers' stock went from potential contenders to hoping for a playoff spot during their two-game, home losing streak and will now go on the road to challenge the lone undefeated team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals, whose stock could not be higher. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday October 10th, 2021 1:25pm PT (FOX) Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona Line: 49ers +5.5, over/under 50.5 Arizona Cardinals The Arizona Cardinals are coming off of their biggest win of the season after going into the Los Angeles Rams' home as 4-point underdogs and completely smashing LA by the score of 37-20 to emerge on top of the NFC West and the only undefeated team



Update: Patriots trade CB Stephon Gilmore to the Panthers

By David Bonilla
Oct 6

Update: The New England Patriots have reportedly traded cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the Carolina Panthers, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. That ends any discussion of his release and potential signing by the 49ers. The Panthers reportedly acquired the Pro Bowl cornerback in exchange for a 2023 sixth-round draft pick. Source: The #Panthers traded for Stephon Gilmore— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 6,



49ers' Nick Bosa believes he is much-improved since 2019, 'still getting better'

By Rohan Chakravarthi
Oct 8

After suffering an ACL injury in a Week 2 victory against the New York Jets in 2020, Nick Bosa has returned to the field, and has arguably looked even better. Bosa, who's accumulated four sacks on the season to go with 14 tackles, 13 pressures, and a forced fumble, has been the driving force on a 49ers defense alongside fellow edge rusher Dee Ford. In fact, just look at this chart. It's time for the first win rate plot of the year!Double-team rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y).(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)



49ers practice and media schedule leading to Week 5 matchup vs. Cardinals

By Site Staff
Oct 5

The San Francisco 49ers will hold three full practices this week as the team prepares for its Week 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Head coach Kyle Shanahan, defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, special teams coordinator Richard Hightower, and various players are scheduled to speak with the media. The 49ers will make the press conferences available at 49ers.com, on the team's official mobile app, and YouTube page. Below is the schedule, which is subject to change, for the upcoming


Featured

More by Winston Chung

More Articles

Share 49ersWebzone