The San Francisco 49ers' depth, Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheming and Robert Saleh's aggressive defensive plan provided the foundation for the next man up to be plugged and played without missing a beat in a never in doubt 36-9 curb-stomping of the lowly New York Giants. After handling the pathetic New York franchises, San Francisco returns home for a prime time game against the flailing Philadelphia Eagles. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 4th, 2020 at 5:20pm PST (NBC)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -7, o/u 45
Philadelphia Eagles
Even taking into account their injuries, the winless and coverless Philadelphia Eagles have been a disappointment in their first three games, losing by 10 to the Washington Football Team after leading 17-0, getting crushed by nearly 3 touchdowns at home against the Rams and ending up in a tie with the feisty Cincinnati Bengals.
After three weeks, the Eagles offense is 24th in yards per game, 24th in passing yards per game, 17th in rushing yards per game and 27th in points per game. Philadelphia's defense is 5th in yards conceded per game, 7th in passing yards given up per game, 9th in rushing yards surrendered per game and 23rd in points allowed per game.
Carson Wentz is 33rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), 31st in total quarterback rating (QBR) with 3 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and a fumble lost. Philadelphia ranks 25th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -3.2 and 20th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at -3.1 percent. The Eagles are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) and 2-1 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
Nick Mullens stirred a quarterback controversy with his 343 yard, 1 touchdown and 0 interception performance, Brandon Aiyuk broke out for more than 100 total yards and a touchdown, Jerick McKinnon looked great before exiting with injury, Jeff Wilson Jr. scored two touchdowns, Dion Jordan and Kerry Hyder Jr. disrupted the line of scrimmage and each got a sack, Jason Verrett and K'waun Williams stepped up to help shut down the passing game, proving once again that the Niners are a well-coached team with outstanding depth whose players display high levels of professionalism.
After three weeks, the Niners offense is 14th in yards per game, 15th in passing yards per game, 12th in rushing yards per game and 12th in points per game. San Francisco's defense is 3rd in yard conceded per game, 2nd in passing yards given up per game, 16th in rushing yards surrendered per game and 2nd in points allowed per game.
Nick Mullens is 21st in DYAR, 18th in QBR with 1 touchdown, 1 interception and zero fumbles lost. San Francisco ranks 3rd with an ESPN FPI score of 6.7 and 9th in DAVE rating at 6.8 percent. The Niners are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 to the over/under.
Prediction
If we wanted to get cute with betting trends and angles, we could emphasize how the winless Eagles have not covered in three straight games and how this desperate situation makes them more likely to cover the spread next week, or how San Francisco beating up on the two worst teams in the NFL may make them overvalued, especially when considering their history as favorites of 6 points or more at Levi's Stadium. We will not be surprised if the so-called sharp bettors see the value on Philly this Sunday.
But with so many question marks about which players might return this week and lingering and new injuries, we aren't gonna get cute and overthink this one. Carson Wentz is playing atrociously right now and we shudder to think about how a bubbling quarterback controversy might burst if Nick Mullens plays any better or as well as he played last week.
San Francisco's coaching is superior and its depth has proven that whichever player starts for the Niners will step up and perform like a professional. The Eagles will indeed be in desperation mode and they will be fighting to the death in prime time, but a team that could not beat the Washington Football Team or Cincinnati Bengals should not be able to compete with the reigning NFC champions. Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense should struggle to score against Saleh's defense and Shanahan's play-calling should continue to click no matter who starts under center. Pick: 49ers -7
2020 Season ATS
1-2
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