Super Bowl LIV MVP odds and best bets

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are set to play for all the marbles in Super Bowl (SB) 54 in Miami Gardens, Florida on Sunday February 2nd, 2020. Even though 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was right when he said, "This is just a game," for fans and spectators it happens to be one of the biggest and most wagered upon games of the year and sports books respond to all of the public interest by providing a wide range of propositions to bet upon aside from the side and total. Here we discuss the odds and best bets for SB 54 MVP.

When considering a wager for Super Bowl MVP, one should first consider which team she or he thinks will win, whether the odds provide any value based on the return for the amount wagered, if the player is playing a position that is likely to win the award and the likelihood of that player having a good game in this contest based on the match up.

Historically, Super Bowl MVPs have been the quarterback of the winning team, which is why Patrick Mahomes' and Jimmy Garoppolo's odds to win reflect bookmakers giving them the best chances of winning the Pete Rozelle Trophy.

Over the last twenty years, a quarterback has won the award twelve times (last was Nick Foles in SB 52), a wide receiver has won four times (Julian Edelman last year in SB 53), a linebacker has won three times (last was Von Miller in SB 50) and a cornerback once (Dexter Jackson in SB 37).

The last time a running back won the award was Terrell Davis in SB 32, the last time a defensive lineman won was Richard Dent in SB 20, the only time a fullback won the award was Larry Csonka in SB 8 and the only time a safety has won was Jake Scott in SB 7.

We will break down options to consider for each team.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo +240: If San Francisco wins the game, history and these odds suggest that Jimmy G has a good chance of winning MVP. +240 odds means that one will win $240 for betting $100 and while it's a reasonable return this bet might not provide as much value based on recent trends and other options with bigger payouts on investment. While we have little doubt that Jimmy G can take over and win this game if necessary as he has in several games this season, Kyle Shanahan has been running the ball down teams' throats these playoffs and with Kansas City's weakness being its defense against the run, we expect the Niners to continue to run the ball as much as possible. Of course we wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan pulls the rug out from everyone and leans on play-action and a heavy passing attack as he did against New Orleans; and while this latter game plan seems less likely, it could happen in a shootout and very well result in Jimmy G winning MVP if the Niners win the game.

Raheem Mostert +750: As mentioned in the previous paragraph, Shanahan has been pounding the rock at an unprecedented rate, 42 rush attempts in the Conference Championship and 47 times in the Divisional Playoff, and with Kansas City finishing 29th in run defense DVOA, it's hard to see him dramatically changing his approach. If San Francisco wins the game, and we are predicting it to do so, we anticipate that it will be because the Niners are able to effectively run the ball and control the clock. Though Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman have each played significant roles in the running game, Raheem Mostert has shown the most consistent ability to break off big runs in big games such as his transcendent effort in the NFC Championship, and with Tevin Coleman dealing with a dislocated shoulder, we see Mostert as having the best chance to be the difference maker on the field and thus our best value for Super Bowl MVP.

George Kittle +1700: Don't let the fact that there has never been a tight end to win Super Bowl MVP fool you, George Kittle is not like any other tight end. Though it is highly likely that Kittle's Pro-Bowl caliber and relentless blocking mostly go unnoticed to casual observers of San Francisco's dynamic run game and will likely not garner MVP votes on its own, Kansas City's defense was 22nd in conceding productivity to tight ends. If this game turns into a shootout, which it very well could, and Kittle has a touchdown like he did in the first game against Green Bay or a reception like his legendary 4th and 2 catch in the fourth quarter in New Orleans, the People's Tight End could walk away with the hardware.

Deebo Samuel +2000: Given that Kansas City's defense finished ranked 5th in pass defense DVOA and was 2nd only to the New England Patriots in allowing productivity to wide receivers, we see Deebo as a longer shot among the options we will discuss. To be considered as an MVP candidate, Deebo might need to have a game similar to Julian Edelman's performance in last year's Super Bowl: making multiple catches to keep drives alive, picking up those tough, YAC yards like he always does, going over 100 yards receiving and possibly an end around or two for chunk yardage or a touchdown.

Nick Bosa +4100: Whether it is justified or not, we have been comparing this years' Niners defense to the 1985 Chicago Bears, predicting that it could have a similar path through the NFL playoffs as the '85 Bears and so far it has come to fruition. Well, it just so happens that the last time a defensive lineman won the Super Bowl MVP award was defensive end Richard Dent from that Bears team. Since we are anticipating the run game and defense to win the Super Bowl for San Francisco, and considering that Nick Bosa has been one of the most visibly disruptive forces on the defense in these playoffs, we see great value in a little sprinkle on Bosa to win MVP with those juicy +4100 odds.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes +100: Bottom line, if the Chiefs win this game it will be because of Patrick Mahomes, so if one thinks the Chiefs are going to win and wants action on the Super Bowl MVP, he or she might also consider taking Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP.