The San Francisco 49ers once again made an opponent appear completely inept on its own field, this time by squashing the defending NFC and NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams by the score of 20-7 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 6. Will there be any let up as the Niners now face one of the easiest stretches of their season starting with the Washington Redskins on Sunday? Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 20th, 2019 at 10:00am PT (FOX)
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
Line: 49ers -9.5, o/u 42
Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins got their first win of the season, beating the lowly Miami Dolphins 17-16 in Week 6, though they were a Dolphins' missed two-point conversion away from losing the game to the worst team in the NFL. What can you say about the Redskins? They might have one of the worst owners in the NFL, fired their coach after five weeks and are a dumpster fire of an organization.
After six weeks, Washington ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' total DAVE rating at -24.6 percent (represents a combination of preseason projection and performance so far), 30th with a total DVOA of -28.7 percent, 31st in offensive DAVE at -19.2 percent, 30th in offensive DVOA at -22.6 percent, 28th in defensive DAVE at 6.4 percent and 24th in defensive DVOA at 8.1 percent. The Redskins' offense ranks 28th with 286.5 yards per game, 30th with 15.0 points per game, 26th with 205 passing yards per game and 25th with 81.5 rushing yards per game. Washington's defense is 25th in giving up 385 yards per game, 28th in yielding 27.8 points per game, 20th with 251 passing yards conceded per game and 28th in allowing 134.0 rushing yards per game.
The Redskins' offensive line is ranked 22nd in run blocking and 22nd in pass protection. Washington's defensive line ranks 24th in adjusted line yards and 24th in adjusted sack rate. Case Keenum ranks 19th with a DYAR of 94 and 22nd with a total QBR of 43.5. The Redskins have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -8.3 and are 1-5 ATS and 3-3 to the over/under so far this season, with their last three games finishing under the posted total.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers went on the road and used suffocating defense to successfully expose Jared Goff as impotent without a dynamic running game and essentially dethroned and set the Los Angeles Rams back to their Jeff Fisher-coached, 8-8 days.
Through six weeks, San Francisco is ranked 2nd in total DAVE at 24.1 percent, 2nd with a total DVOA of 44.3 percent, 15th in offensive DAVE at 1.6 percent, 12th with an offensive DVOA of 5.5 percent, 2nd in defensive DAVE at -24.2 percent and 2nd in defensive DVOA with -41.6 percent. The 49ers' offense is 4th with 408.0 yards per game, 3rd with 29.4 points per game, 22nd with 228.2 passing yards per game and 2nd with 179.8 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 237.4 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 12.8 points per game, 1st in giving up 150.2 passing yards per game and 6th in yielding 87.2 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 2nd in run blocking and 3rd in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 9th in adjusted line yards and 9th in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 17th with a DYAR of 153 and 13th with a total QBR of 53.4. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 6.1 and are 4-1 ATS and 1-4 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
If you have been blindly betting the Niners and the Under in each of their games, you would be 8-2 at this point of the season, and though there will be a market adjustment to reflect it, San Francisco has proven to be a "bet-on" team with posted totals that will continue to be low because of its ferocious defense.
Nick Bosa is a leading Rookie of the Year candidate, and with the addition of Dee Ford to the first-round talent of Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, San Francisco has the most dominant defensive line in the NFL and as a unit it is controlling and changing the outcomes of games in unequivocal fashion.
PFF pass rush productivity, 49ers have 2 of the top 5 in the NFL:
1. Nick Bosa, 49ers — 14.3
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) October 14, 2019
2. Kemoko Turay, Colts — 13.1
3. Benson Mayowa, Raiders — 11.9
4. Dee Ford, 49ers — 11.8
5. Clay Matthews, Rams — 11.5
When is the last time we've seen a defense that can completely control a game and make its opponent look broken in the process the way the Niners have this year? The 1985 Chicago Bears. The 1985 Chicago Bears had a pedestrian offense but dominated the league because of Buddy Ryan's smothering 46 defense, finishing an unbelievable 15-3-1 against the spread (ATS) that season. And while we expect the Niners' spreads to become larger with less apparent value over the course of the season, we anticipate that San Francisco could also finish with a remarkable ATS record in 2019 because of its defense.
We had the Niners beating the Redskins in our preseason analysis, an outcome that seems much more obvious given what has transpired during the first quarter of the season, but now the question is not if but by how much. Given that the Redskins are double-digit home underdogs at most books, there will likely be sharp action on the Redskins, but we have learned from the error of our ways and seen enough to know that it doesn't make sense to overthink things and can currently only lean toward the Niners or the Under. We just can't see the Redskins scoring on San Francisco's defense and expect the Niners to control the clock by having their way in the running game. Pick: Under 42
Season:
SU: 1-4
ATS: 1-4
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