The San Francisco 49ers returned to their dominating defensive form in a 27-10 suffocation of the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Playoff round. Now the Niners will try to beat the Green Bay Packers for the second time this season but with exponentially higher stakes in the NFC Championship game. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday January 19th, 2020 at 3:40 PM PST (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -7, o/u 45
Green Packers
The Green Bay Packers' defense was able to muster a stop of Russell Wilson late in the 4th quarter and Aaron Rodgers was just able to make enough 3rd down conversions to hang on for a 28-23 win over the Seattle Seahawks in their Divisional Playoff.
At the conclusion of the regular season, Green Bay ranked 10th in total DVOA at 7.7 percent, 9th in offensive weighted DVOA at 4.1 percent and 16th in weighted defensive DVOA at 0.0 percent.
The Packers' offense ranked 18th with 345.5 yards per game, 15th with 23.5 points per game, 17th with 233.3 passing yards per game, 15th with 112.2 rushing yards per game, 17th with 5.4 offensive yards per play and 28th with 28.86 seconds per play (pace).
Green Bay's defense was 18th in giving up 352.6 yards per game, 9th in yielding 19.6 points per game, 14th with 232.6 passing yards conceded per game, 23rd in allowing 120.1 rushing yards per game and 22nd with 5.7 defensive yards per play.
The Packers' offensive line was ranked 6th in run blocking and 10th in pass protection. Green Bay's defensive line ranked 31st in adjusted line yards and 12th in adjusted sack rate. Aaron Rodgers ranked 8th with a DYAR of 796 and 20th with a total QBR of 50.8. The Packers have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 3.6 and are 11-6 ATS and 7-10 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
In Week 7 with a healthy Niners defense at that time, we may have been overzealous in comparing this season's 49ers defense to the 1985 Chicago Bears, but with Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander back on the field for the Divisional Playoff, Nick Bosa was free to tally 6 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 2 tackles-for-loss, 1 pass deflection and 3 QB hits, and San Francisco's defense once again looked like a world class unit and could have a similar playoff path to the '85 Bears if its defense remains healthy and intact.
Through the regular season, San Francisco ranked 5th in total DVOA at 27.9 percent, 8th in weighted offensive DVOA at 4.4 percent and 5th in weighted defensive DVOA at -15.3 percent.
The 49ers' offense was 4th with 381.1 yards per game, 2nd with 29.9 points per game, 13th with 237.0 passing yards per game, 2nd with 144.1 rushing yards per game, 5th with 6.0 offensive yards per play and 29th with 28.91 seconds per play.
San Francisco's defense was 2nd in allowing 281.1 yards per game, 8th by conceding 19.4 points per game, 1st in giving up 169.2 passing yards per game, 17th in yielding 112.6 rushing yards per game and 1st with 4.7 defensive yards per play.
The Niners' offensive line was ranked 8th in run blocking and 15th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line was 13th in adjusted line yards and 2nd in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 12th with a DYAR of 737 and 12th with a total QBR of 58.8. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 7.5 and are 10-6-1 ATS and 8-8-1 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
Since their week 12 contest, Green Bay's offense has regressed some and its defense has tightened up just a bit. While San Francisco's defense had regressed toward the end of the regular season, Dee Ford's and Kwon Alexander's returns give it a boost and there is little question that San Francisco is the better team on both sides of the ball and in coaching.
Weighted DVOA ratings of the final four teams after divisional round games.
3 KC
4 TEN
5 SF
15 GBYes, fifteen. Commentary coming tomorrow at https://t.co/EhESUN1J2u.
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) January 13, 2020
It would be foolish to overlook Green Bay, rest on the laurels of its Week 12 throttling and expect something similar at these higher stakes, but given that Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, Joe Staley and Robbie Gould were absent and Green Bay was coming off a bye for that Week 12 contest, it's hard to come up with objective reasons as to why the Green Bay Packers will have a better chance of beating the 49ers this Sunday.
Some of the reasons that Green Bay might beat the 49ers are largely intangibles: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams returning home, the thought that it is difficult to beat the same team twice in the same season and Green Bay with the revenge factor. Will the motivation of revenge be enough to keep Aaron Rodgers' uniform clean this Sunday?
Matt LaFleur talking bout redemption with the conviction of McLovin tryna buy beer with his fake ID. Do you think he gets his revenge? #NFCChampionship #49wz pic.twitter.com/wQrq4aSwJ8
— Winston Chung (@dubcmd) January 13, 2020
We have little doubt that if Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander remain healthy, and Emmanuel Moseley starts instead of Ahkello Witherspoon, the 49ers defense will be able to get to Rodgers and limit Green Bay's offense.
The outcome of Sunday's contest could depend on how easily San Francisco's offense will be able to run on and score on Green Bay's slightly improved defense. Will Kyle Shanahan be able to come up with schemes to exploit Mike Pettine's defense?
Do you think Kyle Shanahan will have something special dialed up for Mike Pettine's defense in the NFC Conference Championship? #NFCChampionship #49wz pic.twitter.com/mqorGBfgoh
— Winston Chung (@dubcmd) January 13, 2020
49ers Faithful, pack your bags, you're headed to Miami in February. Pick: 49ers -7
Season
SU: 9-8
ATS: 9-8