The San Francisco 49ers will host the Minnesota Vikings in the first Divisional Playoff game at Levi's Stadium. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Saturday January 11th, 2020 at 1:35 PM PST (NBC)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -7, o/u 45.5
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings went into the Superdome as seven-point underdogs and shocked New Orleans, leading for the majority of the contest and finishing off the Saints 26-20 in overtime.
After the regular season, Minnesota ranks 7th in Football Outsiders' total DVOA at 15.4 percent, 13th in weighted offensive DVOA at 2.7 percent and 7th in weighted defensive DVOA at -11.3 percent.
The Vikings' offense ranks 16th with 353.5 yards per game, 8th with 25.4 points per game, 23rd with 220.2 passing yards per game, 6th with 133.3 rushing yards per game, 8th with 5.8 offensive yards per play and 13th with 27.65 seconds per play (pace).
Minnesota's defense is 14th in giving up 341.6 yards per game, 5th in yielding 18.9 points per game, 15th with 233.6 passing yards conceded per game, 13th in allowing 108.0 rushing yards per game and 10th with 5.2 defensive yards per play.
The Vikings' offensive line is ranked 7th in run blocking and 14th in pass protection. Minnesota's defensive line ranks 25th in adjusted line yards and 5th in adjusted sack rate. Kirk Cousins ranks 7th with a DYAR of 801 and 13th with a total QBR of 58.7. The Vikings have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 6.5 and are 10-7 ATS and 9-8 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Through the regular season, San Francisco is ranked 5th in total DVOA at 27.9 percent, 8th in weighted offensive DVOA at 4.4 percent and 5th in weighted defensive DVOA at -15.3 percent.
The 49ers' offense is 4th with 381.1 yards per game, 2nd with 29.9 points per game, 13th with 237.0 passing yards per game, 2nd with 144.1 rushing yards per game, 2nd with 6.0 offensive yards per play and 29th with 28.91 seconds per play.
San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 281.1 yards per game, 8th by conceding 19.4 points per game, 1st in giving up 169.2 passing yards per game, 17th in yielding 112.6 rushing yards per game and 1st with 4.7 defensive yards per play.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 8th in run blocking and 15th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 13th in adjusted line yards and 2nd in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 12th with a DYAR of 737 and 12th with a total QBR of 58.8. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 7.2 and are 9-6-1 ATS and 8-7-1 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
While Kirk Cousins squaring off with his former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan may get attention as a story line leading into this Divisional Playoff, the Minnesota Vikings pulled off the upset because of the return of Dalvin Cook and his effect on the running game and a reinvigorated Vikings defense which held Drew Brees to 208 yards passing, one touchdown pass, sacked him three times and forced him into losing a fumble and throwing an interception.
After sitting out two games in which the Vikings lost, Cook carried the ball 28 times for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns at New Orleans while Adam Thielen appeared to be shaping back into form as a top possession receiver with 7 catches for 129 yards.
Mike Zimmer is known to be a conservative play caller, so one can expect efforts by Minnesota to control the clock with a whole lot of running with Dalvin Cook and tough defense on Saturday.
We expect the Niners to win the game but 7 or even 6.5 points are too many to lay in what should be a tightly contested battle, as Minnesota is power ranked as the second best team, ahead of Seattle and Green Bay, remaining in the NFC. San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in each game when favored by six points or more at home this season and the Vikings present a tough match up and we would take the points if forced to pick a side.
Just like I mentioned this week on @NinersNation, the #Vikings aren't an easy matchup for SF.
Cook/Mattison can control the game and Hunter/Griffen can bring pressure to Garoppolo.
That's what they've done here — despite a meh game from Cousins. pic.twitter.com/aT2ZpIwxZp
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 5, 2020
Big challenge for George Kittle this week. The #Vikings allowed a passer rating of just 60.3 in the regular season on targets to TEs, the lowest figure in the league by 28 points. (2nd: #49ers at 88.4)
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) January 6, 2020
While San Francisco's defense had been regressing in the latter parts of the season, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt are probable for Saturday's game with the possibility that Kwon Alexander could also be activated, all of which could be a boost to the defense.
With both defenses trending in a positive direction and the expectation of a heavy rushing attack from a conservative play caller in Mike Zimmer, taken together with the added tension of no tomorrow for the loser of a playoff game, we expect a tough, physical contest where points will come at a premium: Pick: Under 45.5
Season
SU: 8-8
ATS: 8-8