Say what you want about a missed kick, dropped passes from wide receivers, shaky protection from the offensive line, poor ball protection, an ineffective running game and questionable coaching decisions, the San Francisco 49ers had a chance to win their Week 10 Monday night game at Levi's Stadium in overtime but could not budge the sticks against Seattle's 27th ranked defense, leaving Russell Wilson a final chance to win the game and add to his MVP-caliber season, allowing the Seattle Seahawks to escape Santa Clara with a 27-24 overtime victory. Now the Niners will have to deal with a short week and a new injuries to Emmanuel Sanders and Ronald Blair III prior to taking on the Arizona Cardinals at home in Week 11. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday November 17th, 2019 at 1:05pm PST (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -11.5, o/u 45
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray went back and forth with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday in Florida but came up short in their 27-30 loss in Week 10.
After ten weeks, Arizona ranks 26th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at -12.8 percent (represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games), 14th in offensive weighted DVOA at 1.4 percent and 28th in weighted defensive DVOA at 11.6 percent.
The Cardinals' offense ranks 18th with 351.7 yards per game, 17th with 22.2 points per game, 16th with 235.7 passing yards per game and 14th with 116.0 rushing yards per game. Arizona's defense is 31st in giving up 412.5 yards per game, 27th in yielding 28.1 points per game, 31st with 286.5 passing yards conceded per game and 24th in allowing 126.0 rushing yards per game.
The Cardinals' offensive line is ranked 22nd in run blocking and 27th in pass protection. Arizona's defensive line ranks 17th in adjusted line yards and 18th in adjusted sack rate. Kyler Murray ranks 22nd with a DYAR of 63 and 14th with a total QBR of 57.1. The Cardinals have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -4.7 and are 7-3 ATS and 6-4 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Though the Niners' defense played admirably, shutting out Seattle's offense in the first half, scoring a defensive touchdown in the second half and an interception on the Seahawks' opening drive in the red zone in overtime, San Francisco's offense was largely impotent, making Seattle's previously porous defense look like world beaters in allowing five sacks, two fumble recoveries, an interception and a touchdown.
Through ten weeks, San Francisco is ranked 2nd in weighted DVOA at 30.5 percent, 17th in weighted offensive DVOA at -1.6 percent and 2nd in weighted defensive DVOA at -32.4 percent.
The 49ers' offense is 9th with 380.4 yards per game, 4th with 28.8 points per game, 22nd with 218.7 passing yards per game and 2nd with 161.8 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 251.6 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 14.3 points per game, 1st in giving up 143.8 passing yards per game and 18th in yielding 107.8 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 9th in run blocking and 8th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 20th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 18th with a DYAR of 169 and 12th with a total QBR of 58.4. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 6.9 and are 5-4 ATS and 4-5 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
Maybe Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey were not quite ready to return from injury for a prime time divisional contest, maybe dropped passes and not having his safety blankets of George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders exacerbated an already turnover-prone Jimmy Garoppolo into coughing it up three times, maybe the game hasn't passed Pete Carroll by and he was able to outcoach Kyle Shanahan on this occasion, but one certainty is that the San Francisco 49ers will have to improve upon their Week 10 performance and correct mistakes if they want to sustain their early season success and beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11, let alone cover this gigantic spread.
The defense gets a pass after tallying five sacks, three fumble recoveries, an interception and touchdown while conceding only two touchdowns all game, with both touchdowns being set up by Garoppolo turnovers, but previous criticisms about the Niners' wide receivers and Garoppolo's ability to avoid turnovers and carry this team when needed proved to be valid in Week 10.
Arizona may be at the bottom of the NFC West but it plays hard and has competed at a much higher level than many had expected prior to the season, and it has contributed to the Cardinals' very good 7-3 ATS record. Kyler Murray is playing admirably for a rookie thrust into the starting role on a team that finished 3-13 the previous season and there is no doubt that Kliff Kingsbury will be doing everything in his power to hand San Francisco its second loss of the season this Sunday.
We predicted that the Niners would sweep the Cardinals in 2019 and stand by it but feel that more than eleven points is way too many. This spread opened at fourteen but has been pounded down by two and a half points with bettors taking the points with the Cardinals, and if we were going to consider a side we would lean toward taking the points as well.
Even though San Francisco will be chomping at the bit after losing at home in prime time, it will be dealing with a short week and ongoing questions with regard to the injuries to George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders and could be due for a letdown after a huge divisional game on Monday night that resulted in its first loss of the season.
Just like Russell Wilson was able to burn the Niners' defense on third down with some long runs, Kyler Murray is also able to extend plays and drives with his legs and we anticipate that Kingsbury and the Cardinals' offense will be able to find ways to score as they did in Week 9. Given that the Cardinals defense is ranked 28th in weighted defensive DVOA, we also expect the Niners' offense and Jimmy Garoppolo to rebound from their poor showing in Week 10 in a higher scoring game. The final score has finished over the total in three straight for San Francisco and two straight for Arizona and we see that trend continuing. Pick: Over 45
Season:
SU: 4-5
ATS: 2-7
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