The San Francisco 49ers did not get caught looking ahead and escaped the Thursday night game in the desert with a 28-25 victory over the Arizona Cardinals but sustained a huge loss in the season-ending injury to Kwon Alexander in the process. Alexander's ability in coverage will be missed as the Niners prepare to take on leading MVP-candidate Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks in a prime time game that could be the best Monday night match up so far this season. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Monday November 11th, 2019 at 5:15 PM PST (ESPN)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -6, o/u 46
Seattle Seahawks
In a season where the Seattle Seahawks and the Twelfth Man have looked more vulnerable at home than they have in recent memory, Seattle once again found itself in a hole in Week 9, this time 7-21 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but was once again rescued by Russell Wilson's magic act as he added to his remarkable season, pulling out the 40-34 victory in overtime.
After nine weeks, Seattle ranks 9th in Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA at 10.7 percent (represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games), 3rd in weighted offensive DVOA at 22.0 percent and 27th in weighted defensive DVOA at 7.5 percent.
The Seahawks' offense ranks 4th with 395.0 yards per game, 7th with 27.6 points per game, 9th with 263.3 passing yards per game and 8th with 131.7 rushing yards per game. Seattle's defense is 25th in giving up 380.8 yards per game, 22nd in yielding 25.6 points per game, 28th with 278.1 passing yards conceded per game and 13th in allowing 102.7 rushing yards per game.
The Seahawks' offensive line is ranked 23rd in run blocking and 20th in pass protection. Seattle's defensive line ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards and 31st in adjusted sack rate. Russell Wilson ranks 1st with a DYAR of 788 and 1st with a total QBR of 78.5. The Seahawks have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 2.0 and are 4-5 ATS and 5-4 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
On a night when the San Francisco 49ers' defense lost one of its best players and was not its usual self, Jimmy Garoppolo stepped up to throw four touchdown passes and crucial third down completions to seal the win in Week 9 and remain the only undefeated team in the NFL.
Through nine weeks, San Francisco is ranked 1st in weighted DVOA at 36.1 percent, 11th in weighted offensive DVOA at 5.8 percent and 2nd in weighted defensive DVOA at -30.5 percent.
The 49ers' offense is 7th with 390.3 yards per game, 3rd with 29.4 points per game, 22nd with 219.1 passing yards per game and 2nd with 171.1 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 1st in allowing 241.0 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 12.8 points per game, 1st in giving up 138.1 passing yards per game and 14th in yielding 102.9 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 8th in run blocking and 5th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 15th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 14th with a DYAR of 312 and 6th with a total QBR of 69.1. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 8.0 and are 5-3 ATS and 3-5 to the over/under this season.
What will give when the Niners take on the best quarterback and most potent offense they have faced all season and the Seahawks challenge the best defense they've seen all year? In contrast to the archetypal Seattle teams featuring a power run game, smothering defense and great home field advantage, this year's bizarro-world iteration of the Seahawks features Russell Wilson playing like a video game cheat code, porous defense and struggles at CenturyLink Field while being undefeated on the road, but Wilson's virtuosity has covered up many of his team's shortcomings and it stands at 7-2 heading into this huge divisional match up on Monday night.
Russell Wilson being the driving force behind Seattle's success makes the loss of Kwon Alexander more pronounced, as Alexander will be missed the most in pass coverage, as Pro Football Focus had graded him as the league's top coverage linebacker among all 4-3 outside linebackers. Despite this significant loss, the defense could be aided by the potential return of Ahkello Witherspoon (though Emmanuel Moseley has filled in admirably in his place) and Kyle Shanahan has said that he anticipates Joe Staley, Mike McGlinchey and Kyle Juszczyk possibly returning for Week 10, which should be a boost to the offense.
Oh. 49ers get
Staley
McGlinchey
Juice Check
Witherspoon
Back
Next
Week.
Hello, @Seahawks
— Vincent Frank (@VincentFrankNFL) November 1, 2019
In attempting to predict the outcome of this game, one has to consider whether he or she trusts Russell Wilson's play-making ability or the Niners' defense and overall team efficiency. Given Wilson's current elite level of play, history of performing well in prime time and this being a divisional contest, some sharp bettors will likely take the six points with Seattle.
But the old adage is not 'offense wins championships' because if that were true Dan Marino would have one. Despite Wilson's transcendent play, the San Francisco 49ers are a better overall team and Kyle Shanahan will find ways to gash Seattle's very exploitable defense which will be the worst unit on the field between both teams. The question is how Russell Wilson will fare against the Niners' defense with Dre Greenlaw replacing Kwon Alexander.
The NFL is a week to week league and the San Francisco 49ers defense felt like it let the team down and was humbled by allowing Kyler Murray and Kenyan Drake to have the games they did in Week 9, with Richard Sherman emphasizing how the defense felt bailed out by the offense and how it was going to watch film critically and correct its mistakes. Do you think Richard Sherman will have some feelings about this Monday night game against his former team?
Richard Sherman on the offense coming through and the #49ers defense needing to be humbled.
— John Dickinson (@JDJohnDickinson) November 1, 2019
The Niners have the advantage of eleven days between games and we expect the defense to have a chip on its shoulder after its performance on Thursday night and naysayers continuing to insist that the Niners have not played anyone, are not legit and are due for a loss. With Seattle's offensive line ranking 20th in pass protection, Russell Wilson will face the top passing defense in the NFL with pressure unlike any he has experienced this year and we see this as the difference in the game and San Francisco winning by at least a touchdown. Pick: 49ers -6.
Season:
SU: 4-4
ATS:2-6
