It wasn't pretty, but the San Francisco 49ers shut out the Washington Redskins by the score of 9-0 on a soggy, muddy field in Maryland to remain undefeated and atop the NFC West standings as they near the midpoint of the season. Quarterback Kyle Allen is undefeated as a starter and will lead the surging Carolina Panthers fresh off a bye into their contest in Santa Clara on Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 27th, 2019 at 1:05pm PT (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -5.5, o/u 42
Carolina Panthers
After opening the season with back-to-back losses with Cam Newton under center, the Carolina Panthers have won four straight with Kyle Allen as the starting quarterback and Christian McCaffrey emerging as one of the most dominant running backs in the game. Carolina will be coming off of a bye after throttling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in London in Week 6 by the score of 37-26.
After seven weeks, Carolina ranks 11th in Football Outsiders' total DAVE rating at 9.5 percent (represents a combination of preseason projection and performance so far), 9th with a total DVOA of 13.1 percent, 16th in offensive DAVE at 0.3 percent, 21st in offensive DVOA at -2.8 percent, 4th in defensive DAVE at -7.1 percent and 3rd in defensive DVOA at -12.8 percent. The Panthers' offense ranks 20th with 353.0 yards per game, 5th with 27.7 points per game, 22nd with 223.5 passing yards per game and 9th with 129.5 rushing yards per game. Carolina's defense is 12th in giving up 344.0 yards per game, 15th in yielding 22.2 points per game, 7th with 225.0 passing yards conceded per game and 23rd in allowing 119.0 rushing yards per game.
The Panthers' offensive line is ranked 23rd in run blocking and 22nd in pass protection. Carolina's defensive line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards and 2nd in adjusted sack rate. Kyle Allen ranks 17th with a DYAR of 126 and 16th with a total QBR of 53.3. The Panthers have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 2.1 and are 4-2 ATS, including covering the number in four straight, and 4-2 to the over/under so far this season.
While the weather and field conditions were a major factor in San Francisco's muted offensive production in Week 7, injuries to the starting tackles and fullback may be catching up to the Niners' offense and contributing to its slight dip in production the past two weeks; but having the luxury of a suffocating defense that has only allowed ten points in its last three games, including zero points in Week 7, has helped San Francisco remain unblemished.
Through seven weeks, San Francisco is ranked 2nd in total DAVE at 25.2 percent, 2nd with a total DVOA of 39.1 percent, 18th in offensive DAVE at 0.1 percent, 15th with an offensive DVOA of 2.1 percent, 2nd in defensive DAVE at -26.4 percent and 2nd in defensive DVOA with -39.1 percent. The 49ers' offense is 7th with 387.2 yards per game, 11th with 26.0 points per game, 25th with 214.5 passing yards per game and 2nd with 172.7 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 223.5 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 10.7 points per game, 1st in giving up 133.5 passing yards per game and 8th in yielding 90.0 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 3rd in run blocking and 5th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 10th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 18th with a DYAR of 105 and 9th with a total QBR of 59.2. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 6.1 and are 4-2 ATS and 1-5 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
We had the Niners beating the Panthers in our preseason analysis and are sticking with that prediction, but this Panthers team will be the best the Niners have faced this season and we anticipate a closer game based on Carolina being rested off of a bye and performing much better recently with Kyle Allen under center.
This game features two of the top defenses in the NFC with San Francisco and Carolina ranked 2nd and 3rd in defensive DVOA and 1st and 2nd adjusted sack rate, respectively. Even before the muddy game at Washington, San Francisco's rushing attack and passing offense had been subtly declining with the injuries to key offensive positions, which may have been part of the impetus to trade for Emmanuel Sanders from Denver.
The Panthers rank 30th in rushing defense DVOA and San Francisco will likely try to exploit that weakness and control the game by running the ball, while Carolina will no doubt feature Christian McCaffrey as a focal point of its offense. San Francisco and Carolina have the top two adjusted sack rates in the league and are likely to apply more pressure than either of these quarterbacks has experienced so far this season and that could disrupt the passing attacks and possibly contribute to turnovers.
Due to the Niners' smothering defense, the Under has hit in four straight contests, and anticipating a match up of two top defenses, we look for that trend to continue in Week 8. Pick: Under 42
Season:
SU: 2-4
ATS: 2-4
