Just a short time ago, how much the 49ers should be willing to pay quarterback Brock Purdy was the topic everyone from TV pundits to bloggers to journalists to regular fans was talking about. Purdy has always attracted a lot of haters in those constituencies, but their suggestions were sometimes downright dopey.
There were some who actually argued—and strenuously—that the 49ers should offer him 40 million dollars per year and let him walk if he wouldn't take that.
Now, 40 per year would have made Purdy the 17th-highest paid quarterback in the league. He would have been behind Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray. Just the fact that Brock had taken the Niners to the Conference Championship game and the Super Bowl (and given the team two late-game leads) should have told people that 40 per year would not be a reasonable, much less realistic, offer.
Statistically, he was better than Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence, who had signed deals worth 55 per year not that long before, and the salary cap was going up.
This was a question of the real world. It doesn't matter what you think a player should get. If you want to be taken seriously in that kind of debate, you have to take the market into account. That's the way the world works in business. How high can you charge for an item and still get people to buy it?
So the actual issue is how much a player can demand and get a team to pay him. As it is, Brock came in at 53, which is 7th in the league, and if you look at the structure of the deal, it is very team friendly, the actual cap hit not reaching over 50 until 2028, at which time the salary cap will have gone up twice more.
But a franchise quarterback has a lot of leverage. Not all players do.
Which brings us to one of the 49ers' most difficult decisions this offseason: wide receiver Jauan Jennings. A few years ago, when wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was about to hit the market, several other top receivers were, also, and therefore driving up the expected cost, but Jennings is coming into his payday in a fairly settled environment.
And unlike Aiyuk, who had come off 1,000- and 1,300-yard seasons, Jennings has never topped that benchmark.
But this is where it gets tricky. Jennings is clearly not a #1 receiver, but the Niners have a very thin receiver room.
And a room that is prone to injuries. First-round pick Ricky Pearsall has never played a full season, and it is not clear if he can be that #1 guy anyway. Backups who looked great in camp last year, Jacob Cowing and rookie Jordan Watkins, both ended up on IR, Cowing missing the entire season, Watkins playing sparingly in only four games.
Jennings also suffered injuries but played through them and scored 9 touchdowns. Jennings is also one of the best blocking receivers in the league.
With those circumstances, Jennings has more leverage than someone with his statistics might.
So the Niners have to go back to the market. Let's look at what receivers are making.
The top pass catchers are getting over 39 million per year, with Ja'Marr Chase at 40. Certainly, no one believes Jennings should be breathing that rarefied air. The first player below them who is a #2 receiver is Tee Higgins, who would likely be the #1 on every team but a handful. After him is Jaylen Waddle who, like Higgins, would be the 1 for most teams.
Let's look at a few #2 receivers to see where Jennings falls.
Jameson Williams (yearly average: 26.6 million): Williams is the second receiver for Detroit, but he is an explosive playmaker. After injuries set him back at the beginning of his career, when he was finally able to play, he produced over 1,000 yards right away and scored 7 touchdowns. Detroit was proactive and signed him to an extension before he got to the stats that will get a player 30.
Jakobi Meyers (yearly average: 20 million): Meyers is a workmanlike, reliable receiver. He has produced one 1,000-yard season and five over 800. However, he has not been the touchdown maker Jennings has been, and Jennings is essential to the run game.
Jerry Jeudy (yearly average: 17.5 million): Jeudy has never quite lived up to his first-round draft status, with only one 1,000-yard season. However, he inked his current deal right after that.
Jennings is a former 7th-round pick. His career earnings are just under 24 million. And that is after six years. He didn't even top a million per year until his fifth year. Why is that relevant? It means there is no way he is going to take a team-friendly deal. After signing as a restricted free agent for little and then signing a short extension last year for 13, Jennings is finally in position for a good payday.
Late-round picks have not banked the cash 1st- or 2nd-round picks have. The game has taken a toll on their bodies, and everyone knows one hit can end a career. For Jennings—especially as physical as he plays—whatever team he signs with will have to come up with some cash.
When studying the three receivers above, Meyers looks to be the best comp. He is a solid pass catcher but not a superstar. He has produced more yardage than Jennings has, but Jauan is more of a touchdown maker and has always been one the quarterback goes to on 3rd downs (hence his nickname, "3rd and Jauan"). Jennings is also an emotional tone setter.
My prediction is Jennings will look for something in that 20 range. I also think the market will dictate he will get it. The question now is whether the 49ers are willing to invest that much in someone who is likely to be essential to the team but never a #1 receiver.
The 49ers were reluctant to pay Brandon Aiyuk the 30 the market said he should get and apparently regretted signing that deal. The market will likely say Jennings is worth 20.
Considering how thin the 49ers are at wide receiver, how important it is to surround Brock Purdy with playmakers, how the cap went up significantly this year, and that the team has recouped some of Aiyuk's salary, I think they should pay it.
Time will tell.
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