The San Francisco 49ers are 10-4 after a dominating 37-24 win over the Tennessee Titans, but they currently sit at third place in their division, looking up at the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) and Los Angeles Rams (11-3). Despite that, the margins are close enough that the Niners, the sixth seed in the NFC playoff standings, have a distant but tangible shot at the 1 seed and the accompanying bye week.
Thanks to strong conference (8-2) and division (4-1) records, San Francisco is in a great position to win out in any tiebreak situations. But to get there, they'll likely need to win out and get some help along the way.
Here's what will need to happen for San Francisco to land the one seed in this year's playoff fields:
To start, the 49ers have three remaining games. For the purposes of this exercise, we'll assume they win all of them unless specified otherwise:
- Week 16 - @ Colts
- Week 17 - vs. Bears
- Week 18 - vs. Seahawks
Within the division, there's another important game that prevents the Rams and the Seahawks from winning out:
- Week 16 - Rams @ Seahawks
With the 49ers still able to go 2-0 against the Seahawks this year, a Seahawks win in Week 16 provides the best chance for the 49ers to steal the one seed. But it still depends on how things go in the following games.
At Indianapolis Colts
Technically, the least important game on the schedule, losing this matchup puts the Niner's chances of securing the one seed at around 10%. In order to come back from a loss to the Philip Rivers-led Colts, both the Rams and the Seahawks would have to lose two of their next three and the Week 18 matchup in San Francisco.
The chances of the Rams losing to the Falcons (Week 17) and Cardinals (Week 18) are slim as is, but the Panthers face Seattle in Week 17 and could give the Niners some help.
If San Francisco survives Indianapolis, they would still need to avoid the Rams and the Seahawks both winning out. But if Seattle beats LA in Week 16, the 49ers could clinch the one seed by winning out themselves.
Vs. Chicago Bears
A loss to the Bears would almost certainly eliminate the 49ers' chances of taking the one seed, although it would open an unlikely window to winning the division without the one seed. The Rams and Seahawks would both need to lose two of three, though, at which point the NFC West winner falls into the 2-4 seed in most cases.
Either Seattle or Los Angeles winning two games would completely eliminate the 49ers from winning the NFC.
Completely absent the results from the rest of the division, taking care of business against the Colts and Bears gives the Niners a roughly 1-in-4 shot at the one seed.
Vs. Seattle Seahawks
Despite it being the final game of the season and Seattle being a direct postseason competitor, the Rams most likely have the biggest say this week. Not that this game should be taken lightly — losing to Seattle here means the 49ers are guaranteed to be a Wild Card team, no matter what. But in the slew of tiebreakers that will come up should San Francisco win this game to cap a 13-4 season, LA's division results matter a lot.
If the Rams beat Seattle in Week 16, they could lose against the Falcons and still wrap up the division with a win against the Cardinals in Week 18. But swap those last two results, and the 49ers are in as the NFC's top dog.
As mentioned, the Seahawks winning the Week 16 match would let the Niners control their destiny. But if Thursday's Rams-Seahawks tilt goes LA's way, the 49ers could grind all the way through the rest of the season and still be sweating bullets, needing the Cardinals to somehow take down the Rams on the last day of the season. It's not the rosiest path to the one seed, but it's the one the Niners may have to take.