Before I begin, I need to clarify a few things. First, this is not an evaluation of the success or failure of general manager John Lynch's drafts and signings. Every good GM has hits and misses. Second, this is not some sort of call for a new GM. I believe that, on balance, Lynch has been solid, and the results of his teams, when they have not been decimated by injuries, have been good.
This is about his approach. For the purposes of this article, I looked at the first three rounds of all of the drafts Lynch has conducted and his free agent signings of the past five years. I did not examine the players' performance upon arrival, but rather considered what Lynch was likely hoping to achieve from them.
Fans want the big signing. We want to see transformative players added to the roster. The reality—for every team—is that most of the players drafted or signed in any given offseason are projected backups, role players. No team today could afford a quarterback room with the talent of Joe Montana, Steve Young, and, perhaps most telling, Steve Bono as the #3. And has there been a team since the salary cap era began that had a secondary as good as the one the 49ers had on their '89 Super Bowl run with Ronnie Lott, Tim McKyer, Eric Wright, and Don Griffin? Nowadays, you'd be lucky to be able to afford two that good, let alone four.
So this is not about some unrealistic dream stockpile.
In the drafts Lynch has conducted, the 49ers have taken 30 players in the first three rounds. Of those, there is almost a 50-50 split between offense and defense. But as they say, the fallen angels are in the details. Of the 15 on defense, six were defensive linemen, and six were defensive backs. Forty percent of all of his picks were at those positions. (Of the three linebackers, one was Fred Warner, and he got Dre Greenlaw with a 5th rounder. He also signed Azeez Al-Shaair as an undrafted free agent. With that haul, you don't need to draft a lot of linebackers.)
On offense, the focus was more balanced, though he took six wide receivers. He also drafted three running backs, a tight end, and a quarterback. In other words, skill position players. Of the fourteen players drafted on offense, only three were offensive linemen. While many teams hit on O-linemen later in the draft, Lynch has not had that good fortune. (As he is a Hall-of-Fame safety, it should be no surprise that he has had great success identifying great defensive backs available on day 3. Deommodore Lenoir, Talanoa Hufanga, and Malik Mustapha were all last-day picks.)
But there are only so many selections in a draft, so free agents are the other source of talent. If a GM is strong in one area, he might look to free agency to fill out the positions he has less experience in, where players have a track record.
This is where we see Lynch's philosophy in a spotlight. No team can spend big on free agents all over the roster every year. Some years will even be lean. However, when it comes to the defensive line, in addition to depth players, Lynch has signed nine defensive linemen who were starters on their previous teams, with most of them having been starters the year before. He signed a Pro Bowler and a former Defensive Rookie of the Year. And this does not include Bryce Huff, a situational pass rusher who had double-digit sacks the last time he played under defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.
Lynch's financial and talent outlay was even more pronounced in the defensive backfield. Even though he had success in the draft, Lynch has signed two Pro Bowlers and two All-Pros for the secondary in the past five years.
Compare that to his approach to the offensive line. His one big acquisition was trading for tackle Trent Williams to replace retiring star left tackle Joe Staley. Lynch should be commended for getting Williams for a steal. Getting one of the best offensive tackles in history in the prime of his career for one 5th-round pick and one 3rd-round pick should have put Lynch's picture in post offices around the country.
But aside from that trade, of the offensive linemen he signed as free agents, only a few had ever started for a full season. One was Alex Mack, who retired after his only year on the team (as expected), and another was Laken Tomlinson, who gave the 49ers three solid years. The rest were career backups. Lynch signed people who teams did not want or did not care if they left. He signed linemen who were predictably of backup quality to compete with homegrown linemen who were drafted in the last few rounds. In other words, also players predicted to be of backup quality.
Some teams, such as Philadelphia, have put significant draft capital into the offensive line. Their current OL includes one first-round pick, two second-round picks, and one third-round pick. The biggest difference in their performance and the 49ers' in their respective Super Bowls was Philly's O-line dominated the Chiefs' defensive front, whereas San Francisco's front five got pushed around.
Indianapolis, whose starting running back, Jonathan Taylor, leads the league in rushing, and whose quarterback, Daniel Jones, is having a career year, boasts an offensive line with one first-, one second-, and two third-round draft picks. Imagine how fresh Christian McCaffrey would look if he were running behind a line like this.
Colts offensive line
In the Giants game, San Francisco's running game looked good, but it still only generated 4.1 yards per carry. That is much better than the league-lowest 3.4 yards per carry the team brought into the game, but McCaffrey only rushed for a 3.8-yard average.
We can hope the 49ers are turning a corner, but the fact of the matter is that when backups start, the results are not strong. And while there have been some injuries to the OL, the drop-off from starting center Jake Brendel to backup Mike Hennessy and from left guard Ben Bartch to Connor Colby and then Spencer Burford has not been noticeable, perhaps because all are backup caliber.
Things are so hectic during a season that John Lynch has little time for reflection. But when the season is over—hopefully later for the 49ers—he needs to do a self-evaluation. He needs to identify his trends and admit he has overcompensated in a few areas. Robert Saleh, the Faithful's favorite offseason signing, can only scheme up so much of a pass rush when the starters are all on crutches or in walking boots, but at least he began the year with legitimate talent at most positions. Kyle Shanahan can scheme away some weaknesses, but he shouldn't begin the year with the JV protecting the quarterback.
No, I don't want a new GM.
I want a new approach.
(And I want someone on the training staff or grounds crew or wherever to figure out how to keep players healthy.)