The San Francisco 49ers gave away a 12-point fourth quarter lead to the worst offense in the NFL, blew their chance to tie with an errant snap and once again lost in excruciating fashion in Arizona on Sunday.
Now on a short week, the Niners will continue their part of the schedule against the worst teams in the NFL as they take on the equally hapless Oakland Raiders in the football version of the Battle of the Bay on Thursday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Thursday November 1st, 2018 at 5:20pm PST (FOX/NFL)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -3, total at 46.5
Oakland Raiders
Since their trade of Khalil Mack, the Raiders have appeared to be a team mortgaging its present for the future, one whose disarray on the field seems to be matched by the chaos in the locker room and front office, and we see no reason why they wouldn't do anything but continue to optimize their draft position at this point in the season.
The Raiders came out of the bye with a reasonable offensive game plan against the Indianapolis Colts but their lifeless, porous defense let Andrew Luck move up and down the field at will and they ultimately lost the game by 14 points as 3-point home dogs.
Oakland's offense is 17th in gaining 369.7 yards per game and 27th with 19.7 points per game, earning a 22nd ranked offensive DAVE rating of -2.5 percent. The Raiders' offense is ranked 11th in passing yards per game and 25th in rushing yards per game.
The Raiders' defense is 26th in yielding 407.4 yards per game, 31st in giving up 31.1 points per game with a 29th ranked defensive DAVE rating of 11.6 percent. Oakland has the 22nd ranked passing defense and 27th ranked rushing defense.
Derek Carr is 12th with a DYAR of 303 and 26th with a total QBR of 43.5. Oakland is 29th with a total DAVE rating of -16.8 percent. The Raiders have not covered their last three games and are 2-5 ATS for the season and 3-4 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
While the Niners' painful loss to the Cardinals may have seemed like a nadir to the season, things could certainly get worse if they continue to lose to the worst teams in the NFL.
The Niners might also be best served by focusing on their draft position for 2019 but the now pervasive culture of losing may lead to Kyle Shanahan feeling the need to prove himself by trying to win this season.
The 49ers offense is 22nd in accumulating 348.3 yards per game and 23rd in scoring 21.6 points per game, contributing to a 28th ranked offensive DAVE rating of -14.5 percent. San Francisco's offense is ranked 25th in passing and 6th in rushing.
The Niners' defense is 19th in conceding 371.7 yards per game, 28th in allowing 29.5 points per game with a 23rd ranked defensive DAVE rating of 3.6 percent. San Francisco has the 21st ranked passing defense and 13th ranked rushing defense.
C.J. Beathard is 31st with a DYAR of -170 and 25th with a total QBR of 44.8. The Niners are 30th with a total DAVE rating of 21.8 percent. San Francisco is 2-6 ATS and 5-3 to the over/under with their last two games going under the posted total.
Prediction
Despite these teams having nothing meaningful to play for, this game could represent the biggest game of the season for two putrid NFL teams in terms of pride and Bay Area bragging rights.
Prime time games seem to have a lot of scoring this season and given the terrible defense on both squads, we would lean to the over 46.5 points in this match-up.
Derek Carr is a better quarterback than C.J. Beathard and the 49ers have not covered ATS as home favorites since December 2013, going 0-12-2 ATS since then.
Based on this trend, the Niners' incompetent play and given our poor record in trying to pick 49ers games against the spread this season, we might have to rethink our strategy and that might include blindly betting against the 49ers in each and every game from here on out.
This spread opened at 49ers -4 but has been bet down to -3 in a day because bettors are pounding the Raiders, and we are going to follow suit and pick the Raiders to win and cover.Pick: Oakland +3.
Season
2-6 ATS
6-2 SU
