The Los Angeles Rams' Monday night loss slashed their playoff odds from 43% to 24%, according to The Athletic's playoff projections, making the rest of the season an uphill battle for the NFC West team. The San Francisco 49ers face a similarly crucial matchup this weekend as they host the Seattle Seahawks, a game that could significantly impact their postseason hopes.
According to NFL.com's postseason probabilities, the 49ers currently have a 59% chance of making the playoffs. A win over the Seahawks would increase that to 66%, while a loss would drop it dramatically to 38%, as Seattle could pull San Francisco back to .500 with seven games remaining. That 28% swing is the largest potential change in playoff odds for any team in Week 11.
"A win versus Seattle would propel the Niners past the Cardinals (who are on a bye in Week 11) in overall playoff probability -- even though San Francisco would still rank behind Arizona in the divisional hierarchy," explained NFL Media senior director of content Ali Bhanpuri.
The Athletic's projections are less optimistic. They currently give the 49ers a 45% chance of reaching the playoffs and predict a 9-8 season. The team's odds of winning the NFC West sit at 28%, trailing the division-leading Arizona Cardinals, who hold a 62% chance, bolstered by their recent win over the New York Jets.
Before Sunday's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, The Athletic projected only a 39% chance of the 49ers making the playoffs, demonstrating how each victory strengthens their case. Fortunately, The Athletic currently gives the 49ers a 69% chance of beating the Seahawks on Sunday. However, their odds drop in upcoming games, with only a 49% chance against the Green Bay Packers in Week 12 and 36% against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13.
So far, The Athletic has favored the 49ers in every game this season, yet the team remains at 5-4. San Francisco's best path to the playoffs is overtaking the Cardinals for the NFC West crown. The Cardinals, who defeated the 49ers 24-23 in Week 5, are 4-1 since that matchup.
NFL.com currently gives Arizona a 46% chance of winning the NFC West, while The Athletic has them slightly higher at 53%. Meanwhile, NFL.com gives the 49ers a 41% chance to take the division, while The Athletic is much more conservative at 28%.
If the season ended today, the 49ers would be just one spot out of the final playoff position, highlighting the importance of their upcoming slate of games.
NFC playoff picture:
- Detroit Lions (8-1)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)*
- Atlanta Falcons (6-4)*
- Arizona Cardinals (6-4)*
- Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
- Washington Commanders (7-3)
- Green Bay Packers (6-3)
* Division leaders
In the hunt: San Francisco 49ers (5-4), Chicago Bears (4-5), Los Angeles Rams (4-5), Seattle Seahawks (4-5)