The San Francisco 49ers are back at their fortress, Levi's Stadium, to take on the New England Patriots. This return home carries immense significance as the 49ers are determined to snap a two-game losing streak and reclaim their winning form. Will the 49ers stick to the keys to victory in Week 4 and make their homecoming a triumphant one?
Attack the Middle of the Field
The Patriots are ranked 27th in passing yards per game, allowing offenses to throw 244.3 yards per game. The 49ers' passing offense ranks second in the NFL, averaging 267.7 yards per game. The weakness of the Patriots' defense is their linebackers' coverage. Raekwon McMillan has the highest Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 67.9. He has allowed five receptions for 54 yards when targeted.
Given this defensive vulnerability, the running backs and tight ends are poised to have a stellar day over the middle of the field. Jauan Jennings, with his potential to explode on the field, could be the game-changer. If the Patriots' linebackers play out of position like the Rams, Jennings could be on target for a breakout game.
Do Become One-Dimensional
Expect the Patriots' defense to stack the box with 6-8 players and force Brock Purdy to throw. The 49ers do not want to become one-dimensional in this game and allow the Patriots' pass defense to have the advantage. The Patriots' run defense ranks fifth among NFL defenses against the run, allowing 83 yards per game. In Week 1, the Patriots held the Bengals to 70 yards on 16 attempts and a touchdown. In Week 2, they kept the Seahawks to 46 yards on 19 attempts and a touchdown. In Week 3, the Patriots defense allowed the Jets 133 yards on 33 attempts and a touchdown.
The 49ers can run the ball even against stacked boxes. They must continue to find ways to gain positive yards on the ground to help set up the play-action pass. The magic number of 30 attempts should allow the 49ers to run successfully against the Patriots' run defense.
Chip Keion White
The 49ers should have one goal on defense: don't leave Patriots defensive end Keion White alone. White has 12 pressures, four sacks, three hits, and five hurries this season. Even though he is dealing with an injury, he is not on the Patriots' injury report. Expect White to come out and terrorize the 49ers' offensive line. If he faces Colton McKivitz, expect the 49ers to motion a tight end to help chip him on the edge.
If tight end George Kittle plays, it will give the 49ers a nice security blanket out on the edge against White. Using 12 personnel may be the way to go in this matchup against the Patriots' premier defender.
Don't Lose Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry leads the Patriots with 17 targets and 12 receptions. It's fair to say that Jacoby Brissett trusts his tight end with the ball. The 49ers want to match up well against a savvy veteran tight end like Henry. Last week against the Los Angeles Rams, 49ers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell was in man coverage on a tight end, costing the team an explosive play down the field with a big pass interference call.
The Patriots could use 12 personnel (two tight end sets) and force the 49ers to cover with any other linebacker not named Fred Warner. The Patriots like to utilize Henry in their short passing game (0-9 yards). He has caught nine of 10 passes for 91 yards in the middle short area of the field. The 49ers must not lose Henry in the passing game.
Take Away the Run
Rhamondre Stevenson will look to get back on track against the 49ers' ninth-ranked run defense. He leads the Patriots' eight-ranked rushing offense with 224 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns. The Patriots average 144.3 rushing yards per game.
The 49er defensive front will look different without Javon Hargrave (partially torn tricep) and newly injured defensive tackle Jordan Elliot (ankle). Whoever the 49ers use upfront must stop the Patriots from running the ball and controlling the clock. The 49ers defense can't afford to give up explosive plays on the ground. Taking away the run will make the Patriots one-dimensional, freeing up the 49ers' safeties.
While this game doesn't hurt the 49ers' chances of making the playoffs, it feels like a must-win situation. The team will aim to avoid a three-game losing streak by sticking to these keys to victory and securing a much-needed win at home against the Patriots.
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Written by:Wayne Breezie is a 49ers content creator. He had his first guest appearance on Ronbosports in 2012. He began writing for a Facebook group called the League of the 49ers. Next, he began writing for Nothing But Niners in 2017. In 2018, Wayne Breezie made his debut on YouTube’s Nothing But Niners show. In 2019, he started his podcast called Nitty Gritty Niners. After putting the pen down for several years, Breezie saw an opportunity to write for 49erscap.com. His first published article was in January of 2022 with 49ersCap, and he currently writes and produces weekly podcasts.
