Brandon Aiyuk's 2024 season hasn't lived up to the high expectations following his breakout performance last year. In 2023, the San Francisco 49ers wide receiver delivered a career-best season, amassing 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, seemingly solidifying his place as the team's top wideout. However, this season's start has been underwhelming.
Aiyuk has managed just 119 yards and no touchdowns through three games—a stark contrast to last season's production. The statistical drop could be attributed to the lingering effects of his offseason contract standoff. Due to the lengthy dispute, Aiyuk missed the 49ers' offseason program, training camp, and preseason. The situation was resolved just before Week 1 when he signed a four-year, $120 million extension.
Still, the missed time may have impacted his readiness for the season, leaving him playing catch-up. NFL analyst Brian Baldinger was particularly critical of Aiyuk, saying the star receiver looks "pedestrian" and lacks the dynamic separation he displayed last season.
"He just doesn't seem like the same person," Baldinger said. "He doesn't have any sort of swag about him at all right now. He just seems like a guy out there."
However, the fantasy football projection and ranking site Fantasy Points offers a contrasting analysis of Aiyuk's performance (h/t The Athletic for the find). According to their data, Aiyuk currently leads the NFL in separation win rate at 46.9%, ahead of Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins, who ranks second at 43.8%.
Top Separation Win Rates of the 2024 Season
+ per @FantasyPtsData1. Brandon Aiyuk, Week 3 (46.9%)*
2. Nico Collins, Week 1 (43.8%)
3. Mike Evans, Week 2 (43.5%)
4. Jameson Williams, Week 1 (42.9%)
5. CeeDee Lamb, Week 1 (42.9%)*lol, he's gonna be fine guys
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 24, 2024
This data suggests Aiyuk is getting open. Yet, while Collins tops the NFL with 338 receiving yards, Aiyuk's production remains significantly lower.
When Matt Barrows of The Athletic asked Kyle Shanahan if he agreed with the separation metrics, the head coach said, "Oh yeah, I do. We played a lot of zone coverage here in the last couple weeks. Usually, when it's zone, there's not many people around the guys, there's just people underneath. It's about throwing over people. And he's done a good job in man-coverage, too."
Fantasy Points senior film analyst Steve O'Rourke recently reviewed the film from the 49ers' loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday and provided some clarity on Aiyuk's modest stat line.
"His targets were quality when he made the catch. It's just that a lot of his targets weren't catchable in this game," O'Rourke explained. "... I know it says 10 targets on the box score, but it's also you have to look into what happened with the targets and look into what happened throughout the game."
Fantasy Points Senior Film Analyst and one of the masterminds behind the invention of ASS @callmesteveo7 digs into Brandon Aiyuk's Week 3 film!
"Is he cooked? Absolutely not. This was one of the best separation games we've ever charted." pic.twitter.com/aptafuvQJk
— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) September 26, 2024
Fantasy Points added, "This was one of the best separation games we've ever charted."
Aiyuk's separation numbers suggest he should be producing more. It seems a combination of factors—such as in-game circumstances and the rebuilding of chemistry—has limited his yardage.
When asked if he's noticed opposing defenses adjusting to him differently this season, Aiyuk responded, "A little bit different. They just know what we want to do, what we like to do, me and [QB Brock] Purdy, especially."
Defenses appear more prepared for the Purdy-Aiyuk connection, which proved dangerous last year. This, along with the missed offseason time, could explain Aiyuk's slow start.
Despite the challenges, O'Rourke and Fantasy Points believe Aiyuk will bounce back, confidently stating, "Is he cooked? Absolutely not." It's likely just a matter of time before the highly-paid wideout finds his rhythm again.
