Former NFL general manager Randy Mueller provided an in-depth analysis of the Brandon Aiyuk contract negotiations on Thursday, detailing why the 49ers have more leverage than Aiyuk and why he thinks the eventual outcome will be positive for both sides.
In an article published by The Athletic, Mueller, whose time as an NFL executive included general manager stints with the New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins, said the 49ers have positioned themselves well by having receivers such as Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall under contract, while also holding an edge over Aiyuk when it comes to the amount of money he'd be paid without a new deal.
"Aiyuk has the short straw," wrote Mueller. "He has a contract for 2024 that will pay him $14.1 million, and under the current CBA, holding out of training camp is not a viable option. If the 49ers wanted to play hardball, they could make Aiyuk play for that and then franchise-tag him for 2025. The tag for wide receivers (which the Cincinnati Bengals' Tee Higgins received this offseason) is worth $21.8 million in 2024. It is projected to rise near $25 million in 2025, which would put Aiyuk around $39 million over the next two years.
"I'm not suggesting the 49ers should play hardball, but they could if they wanted to. That's leverage. Obviously, Aiyuk's representation knows this."
Mueller believes the 49ers do not want to move on from Aiyuk, nor should they. But he also feels the wide receivers the 49ers have without Aiyuk leave them in a good negotiating position.
"In Kyle Shanahan's offense, they have some versatile personnel, so they are not desperate to get Aiyuk signed right now," wrote Mueller.
Mueller added that Aiyuk could gain some leverage if he waited for the market price to rise after Cowboys receiver Cee Dee Lamb and Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase sign contracts that are expected to be in excess of $30 million per year. But Aiyuk, Mueller says, would rather cash in now in order to achieve long-term security. The biggest thing Aiyuk has working in his favor is the four-year, $120 million contract the Detroit Lions recently gave to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
"The fly in the ointment for the 49ers is St. Brown's contract," Mueller wrote. "Most in the NFL would consider Aiyuk a better all-around player than St. Brown, whose deal caused much back-channel conversation within the league. That's the one bit of leverage Aiyuk has that might have some traction with the 49ers' brass. Because of that deal alone, they might have to go to $31 million per year."
So what will happen with the 49ers and Aiyuk? Mueller thinks the 49ers will strike a deal near the start of training camp, as they have multiple times in the past during contract negotiations with high-profile players.
"Ultimately, I expect Aiyuk would sign for around $30 million to $32 million annually with about $50 million fully guaranteed," wrote Mueller. "That would give him something to hang his hat on. The question then becomes: Do the 49ers value him that much more than their other options, even if that cost is a bit more than what they had budgeted? I think a deal will get done before camp starts, when time is of the essence."
49ers veterans are scheduled to report to training camp on July 23, one week after the rookie reporting date of July 16. NFL Network reporter Tom Pelissero reported Wednesday that the 49ers and Aiyuk had a "good" meeting earlier this week and that he expects negotiations to pick back up after the July 4th holiday.