Could the Green Bay Packers upset the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs? It is certainly possible, especially if the 49ers don't play the type of game they are capable of playing. And while that is often true of teams in the playoffs, it's particularly true in this case, as the 49ers are currently 9.5-point favorites.
Many have considered the 49ers one of the top two or three teams all season. And San Francisco has been one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl all season long. But anything can happen in the NFL, and if the 49ers allow this young Green Bay team to hang around and gain confidence, the 2023 San Francisco 49ers could face the same fate the 1987 49ers faced—being upset by a team over which they're heavy favorites.
For the 49ers to move on to their third straight NFC Championship Game (and fourth in the last five seasons), they must answer these four burning questions:
1. Can the 49ers get off to a fast start?
The best recipe for beating the Packers is to get off to a fast start and force Green Bay to try to keep up. And if the 49ers can score first, get a stop, and score again, they have the chance of getting the Packers off their game plan and becoming one-dimensional. That will make slowing down Packers QB Jordan Love much easier.
Fortunately, the 49ers have been quick starters for most of the season, scoring on 12 opening drives in 2023. Ten of those have been touchdowns. Although coach Kyle Shanahan normally elects to defer to the second half when the 49ers win the opening coin toss, legendary 49ers coaches, Bill Walsh and George Seifert, often took the ball first. The thinking was that if you can score first, you have an immediate mental advantage, as your opponent is already behind.
The Packers took the same approach last week against the Dallas Cowboys. They won the coin flip and took the ball. Then they marched down the field and the Cowboys never recovered.
If the 49ers win the coin toss, they will defer, like they always do. But the 49ers will still be looking to score first. And if they can do that, their chances of winning the game improve.
2. Can the 49ers slow down the Green Bay run game?
The Packers offense is at its best when the run game is clicking and they can begin using play-action to open up their passing game. When running back Aaron Jones rushes for 100 yards or more, Love and the Packers' passing game is more effective. When Jones doesn't rush for 100 yards, Green Bay has not had the offensive success or wins that they've enjoyed when Jones reaches 100 yards on the ground.
And the 49ers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 44 games. So that doesn't seem to fare well for the Packers. And the 49ers are coming off of a bye, so they should be well rested, meaning the missed tackles that have plagued them at times this season shouldn't be an issue.
And if that wasn't enough, defensive tackle Arik Armstead is scheduled to make his return. This is great news because Armstead is the key to the 49ers run defense. When he's in the game, opposing offenses struggle to run the ball. When he's been out, teams have had more success on the ground against the 49ers.
Can the 49ers slow down the Packers run game? Having Armstead back will help. And if he and the rest of the defensive line can tie up blockers, allowing Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw to make plays, it will be hard for the Packers to have a consistent rushing attack.
3. Can the 49ers protect the football?
The best opportunity for Green Bay to pull off the upset is if the 49ers start turning the ball over. When you lose the turnover battle, you typically lose the game. And the 49ers must protect the football if they are to move on to the NFC Championship Game.
But creating turnovers hasn't been the strength of the Packers' defense this season, which ranks 31st (second to last) in 2023 with only seven interceptions. Everyone remembers their most recent game, in which they picked off Cowboys QB Dak Prescott twice, with one being returned for a touchdown. But that wasn't how the Packers' defense played for most of the season.
In the 49ers' four losses (not counting week 18), the 49ers turned the ball over at least three times in three of the losses, and five times in one of the losses. For the season, the 49ers are:
- 9-1 when they win the turnover battle (have fewer turnovers than their opponent).
- 0-3 when they lose the turnover battle (have more turnovers than their opponent).
So the 49ers need to force turnovers, which won't be easy because the Packers protect the football very well. More importantly, the 49ers need to protect the ball and not turn it over themselves. In case you're wondering, the 49ers are 3-1 when they have the same number of turnovers as the other team. That includes the week 18 loss to the Rams.
So if the 49ers can avoid turning the ball over, they should win this game and advance to the next round.
4. Will the 49ers be rested or rusty?
The 49ers will be rested. But will they be rusty? This is a big question, but we won't have to wait long to see if the team is rusty or not. If San Francisco can answer the first question by getting off to a fast start, it will answer the question of rest versus rust.
Going into the season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers, there was concern that 49ers QB Brock Purdy would be rusty. He had not been part of the offseason program, due to his torn UCL and the recovery that followed his surgery. He practiced most of training camp, but even then, was on a throwing schedule, in which he had to take pre-planned days off. So he had missed a lot of practice time.
But on the opening drive of the opening game, Purdy led his offense down the field for a touchdown, and he never looked back. He hasn't played since week 17, but he has practiced like he normally would. And for Purdy, he doesn't seem concerned about the rust factor.
"There's that rest versus rust component," he told Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. "I think that's more with the mental part of it, the decision-making, the speed of the game and being on top of it."
The 49ers have handled rest quite well this season. In games where they have returned from a bye (or a "mini-bye"), the 49ers are 4-0 and have an average margin of victory of 25 points. Since 2022, the 49ers are 5-0 with over a week's rest, and the average score in the games in which they returned is 34-14.
Rest vs rust… after resting players week 18 & earning a 1st round bye, that's the answer we'll find out about the #49ers this weekend. If the regular season is any indication, they'll be ready to play. More👇🏽 pic.twitter.com/y1xinaGxbc
— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) January 19, 2024
I feel confident that the 49ers will come out rested, and not rusty. They have had a good couple of weeks of practice, including a padded practice, and should have no problem getting up for this game.
Can the Packers pull off an upset win over the 49ers? Of course. But will they? I don't believe they will, as long as the 49ers can answer these four burning questions. And if San Francisco can take care of business, they will be within one win of returning to the Super Bowl.