The 49ers, with hopes of locking up the NFC's No. 1 seed, are set to take on the only other NFL team that shares the same 11-3 record as them, the Baltimore Ravens, in Week 16 of the season. Both teams tote a top-5 physical defense and a top-5 offense with a couple of quarterbacks in the MVP conversation and threatening run games. The 49ers will need to do these key things to ensure a victory on Christmas night.
Stop Ravens' run game
Last week, the 49ers ceded 235 rushing yards to the Arizona Cardinals without Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave. Also, last week, the Baltimore Ravens ran for 251 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It marked their 30th consecutive game with at least 100 yards rushing. During that streak, there have been several injuries to the Ravens running backs. The latest injury occurred last week when electric rookie running back Keaton Mitchell tore his ACL. So, like they've done many times before, they'll lean on their next men up - Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and, of course, who could forget their star quarterback, Lamar Jackson. More on him in a bit.
While Mitchell's explosiveness will be missed for Baltimore, the 49ers would not be wise to overlook Edwards and Hill. With Edwards' power, they love him in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Edwards has 11 total touchdowns, second on the team behind Jackson. He also has accounted for 32% of the Ravens' first downs on the ground. Justice Hill will operate as their change of pace back with his 4.4 yards per carry.
While injuries on the 49ers defensive line have contributed to their run defense slipping in recent weeks, missed tackles are equally responsible. In the last three weeks, the 49ers have missed 12, 15, and 16 tackles. Something they can't afford to do against these backs, who have forced 36 missed tackles combined this season, per PFF.
Contain and be patient
While Jackson is a better passer than Jalen Hurts, they do have something in common - holding onto the ball too long. They both benefit from great pass protection, but when nobody is open, they wait, they pace back and forth with eyes downfield in hopes that someone will spring open. The problem is that if nobody does, they'll hold it so long that the defensive line could eventually get to them. Jackson's time to throw sits at 2.95s according to NextGenStats. For reference, Hurts' is 3.04s. Of course, Jackson will occasionally decide to tuck it and run after a while. His 14% scramble rate is the highest in the league per Sports Info Solutions, but his 7.8% sack rate is also high, all things considered, and ranks 7th in the league. The constant threat of Jackson running is enough for the 49ers defensive line to play the contain game and be patient in their pass rush, making sure not to give up any rushing lanes in the process.
Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars, the Ravens' last two opponents, seemed content in letting Jackson scramble 5-10 yards at a time, so long as it meant not giving up the big downfield play. I think the 49ers defense could survive under similar circumstances. Having sideline-to-sideline linebackers like Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw certainly helps. But this makes tackling imperative as Jackson himself has a forced 34 missed tackles this season, more than any other quarterback. If the 49ers could get back to wrapping up, and their secondary continues to excel in coverage, the 49ers will have the Ravens right where they want them.
Establish the run
Ravens would like to establish their run game in this game, and the 49ers are no different. And when you have a weapon like Christian McCaffrey, it's always a sound game plan. Since the 49ers' bye week, McCaffrey has been on an absolute tear, averaging 6.7 yards per carry on 467 yards rushing.
The Ravens run defense has been among the league's best this season. They currently rank 10th in yards allowed per game but 21st in yards per rush attempt allowed. What that disparity tells you is that teams are simply not running against the Ravens as much as maybe they should. Falling behind and getting into a negative game script could be part of the reason for that.
However, the 49ers need to stick with their identity and continue to put the ball in the hands of the league's best. Since Week 10, the Ravens are allowed 4.82 yards per carry. Most recently, allowing 114 rushing yards to Rams' running back Kyren Williams. The 49ers are undefeated this season when McCaffrey rushes for at least 75 yards. So the game may be as simple as asking, do we think that McCaffrey gets 75 yards against this Ravens team? I like his chances.
Take what the defense gives you in the passing game
Getting a run game going will do a lot to help your passing game against this aggressive Ravens defense, especially to set up play-action. Brock Purdy has the best completion percentage on play-action passes. Purdy is also fourth in completion percentage on plays with pre-snap motion, which I think the 49ers need to use to their advantage to complicate things for this Ravens defense. In the last two weeks, Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence combined for a 0.71 EPA per dropback with a pre-snap motion against the Ravens.
Earlier this month, Kyle Shanahan noted the improvements he's seen from Purdy throughout the season: "He's aggressive, but he doesn't make stupid decisions". The 49ers are going to need that to continue against Purdy's biggest test since facing the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. Part of being smart with the football will involve knowing where Ravens defensive stars and chess pieces, safety Kyle Hamilton and defensive tackle Justin Madubuike are at all times. Madubuike, who lines up just about everywhere on the Ravens defensive line, has 12 sacks which leads all interior defensive linemen. Hamilton, who lines up at free safety, nickel, and in the box, has accounted for 10 pass breakups and 10 tackles for loss. If Purdy can take what the defense gives him, and McCaffrey can remain involved, the 49ers may be able to win the time of possession battle and cruise to victory.
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