When it rains, it pours. First, the San Francisco 49ers lost a rainy game in Cleveland. Then they lost a nationally televised game in Minnesota. The road has not been kind to the 49ers over the past two weeks.
And now the team looks to bounce back from a couple of bad games when they play a Cincinnati Bengals team that started slow but is beginning to turn things around. And when the Bengals are healthy, they are a dangerous and difficult team to beat, even when you're playing at home.
How do the 49ers beat the Bengals? Let's look at five key questions that must be answered for the 49ers to win this late October game.
1. Can the 49ers' pass rush get to Joe Burrow?
Will the real San Francisco 49ers defense please stand up? Last week, Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins torched the vaunted 49ers defense for 378 yards and two touchdown passes. The pass rush was very inconsistent and finished the game with zero sacks (on 45 dropbacks). With plenty of time to throw, Cousins picked the secondary apart.
The defense we saw Monday night looked nothing like the defense we've grown accustomed to seeing. And if the 49ers are going to break this two-game skid, the pass rush must begin asserting itself. This defensive roster has been built around a strong pass rush. When it's not there, the defense struggles.
The secondary, particularly the corners, Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, and Isaiah Oliver did not play well on Monday night. But was that on them, or was it on the lack of pass rush? Pressuring the quarterback always helps the secondary.
One problem for the 49ers, to add to all the others, is that Joe Burrow gets rid of the ball quickly. Per Nick Wagoner, of ESPN, "Burrow's average time to throw is 2.46 seconds, the third fastest trigger in the NFL...that Burrow quick trigger has kept their sack rate down to 5.6%, which is 9th lowest, and a pressure rate of 21.8% (3rd lowest)." That won't help a pass rush that's already struggling to get to the quarterback.
Burrow struggled early in the season as he dealt with injury, but lately, he's been much better and is starting to push the ball down the field. With receivers like Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, things won't get any easier for the 49ers secondary.
Chase is tied for the league lead in catches with 50, which is impressive considering Burrow's struggles early on. According to Wagoner, "Over the past two games, things normalized a bit as he went for a combined 21 catches for 272 yards and 3 TDs. Chase averages 3.45 yards of separation at the time of the ball's arrival, which is 14th among WRs."
Boyd is the slot receiver (although Chase sometimes lines up in the slot) and typically gets good separation, which will present a good challenge for Nicklecorner Oliver. Ward, Lenoir, and Oliver will have their hands full on Sunday, but if the 49ers' pass rush can be resurrected from the dead, that will help immensely.
2. Can the 49ers stop the run?
The 49ers run defense has not looked great the past couple of weeks. Against the Browns, they gave up 160 yards on the ground. Last week, the Vikings only rushed for 74 yards, but they really didn't stick with the run for long. Alexander Mattison averaged 4.9 yards per carry, but they called his number only eight times. Maybe it's because their passing game was so effective. The Vikings only punted once, had one turnover, and scored almost every time they had the ball.
The 49ers' defense was so bad on Monday night that the Minnesota offense probably could have run all over them if they had chosen that route, instead of throwing all over them. And now, they face a more talented running back than the ones they have faced in the past two weeks.
This hasn't been the best season for Bengals running back Joe Mixon. He has only rushed for 366 yards and one touchdown, but he is averaging 3.8 yards per carry on the season. With a Cincinnati passing game that is getting healthy and improving, the 49ers face a stiff challenge in stopping Mixon and the Bengals' ground game. You can't just focus on stopping the run, or Burrow and his wide receivers will burn you. And you can't just focus on the pass, or you'll give up yards on the ground.
The 49ers need to get back to their approach of stopping the run on the way to getting to the quarterback. They can't continue getting gashed on the ground.
3. Will the 49ers' offensive line be able to protect the QB (whoever it ends up being)?
I felt like the offensive line played well in the first half of the Minnesota game, despite starting Jaylon Moore in place of Trent Williams. But in the second half, the Vikings started getting more pressure on Brock Purdy. His two interceptions seemed to be a result of poor decisions that came as a result of pressure.
But on Wednesday, Kyle Shanahan dropped the news that Purdy was in the concussion protocol. The injury took place in the game, and Purdy began having symptoms on the plane ride home. So it's possible the two interceptions were a result of the concussion. Regardless, Purdy is questionable to play on Sunday, although it sounds like a good chance he will be cleared to play. If he can't go, Sam Darnold will get his first start as a QB for the 49ers.
Purdy was only sacked once, but he faced plenty of pressure at times. Each offensive lineman gave up one pressure, except right tackle Colton McKivitz. He gave up six pressures, and the one sack. The 49ers, who have faced a string of really great pass rushers in T.J. Watt, Aaron Donald, Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, and Danielle Hunter, will now prepare to face another one.
Trey Hendrickson is 13th in pass rush win rate (23.6%) and tied for fourth in sacks with seven. And he has done it while being double-teamed on 22% of dropbacks. He lines up mostly over the left tackle, so having a healthy Williams available will be a huge advantage for the 49ers.
Darnold doesn't have Purdy's escapability, so if the backup QB is playing, it will be even more important for the offensive line to protect the quarterback. The 49ers cannot afford to have pressure-related turnovers in a game like this, which figures to be close. Especially when you want to avoid going into the bye on a three-game losing streak.
4. Will the 49ers' run game return?
Having Purdy struggle against a team like Cleveland, who gets after the quarterback as well as they do, is one thing. Having the run game struggle is another. The 49ers' rushing attack is the bread-and-butter of the 49ers' offense. When they can run the ball, they're almost unstoppable. When they can't, they become one-dimensional and much easier to handle.
In their two losses, the 49ers have rushed for only 173 yards combined. They ran for 108 against Cleveland and a measly 65 against Minnesota (and 18 of those came on a Purdy scramble). Both totals are well below what they gained on the ground in the previous games. And to add salt to the wound, Christian McCaffrey has lost a fumble in two of the last three games.
The Bengals aren't as good against the run as the Browns or Vikings, but they're not bad, either. Sam Hubbard, one of the Bengals' edge defenders, has been really good in the run game. Hubbard has 25 run stops this year, which is tied for the most by an edge defender in the league.
The Bengals are allowing five yards per carry, which is 30th in the league. Cincinnati seems to be more susceptible when teams run to the left side, which is at Hendrickson and away from Hubbard. And that just so happens to be the 49ers' favorite side to run to, especially when Williams is playing.
️According to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have given up the second-highest average yards before contact (2.1) in the league. The 49ers average 2.54 yards before contact per carry, which is 14th in the NFL. So this could be a good matchup for the 49ers' offense.
I look for the 49ers to try to run the ball early and often. Will McCaffrey carry the load, or might Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason get some carries? Mitchell has struggled since coming back from injury, while Mason has been very effective when given the opportunity.
5. Will the 49ers clean up their play after two sloppy weeks?
The 49ers were flawless against the Dallas Cowboys. But a week later, against Cleveland, they were very sloppy. They gave up three sacks, turned the ball over once, had several dropped passes, some badly thrown balls by Purdy, and committed 12 penalties for 105 yards. Jake Moody also missed a couple of field goals, including the potential game-winner. It was an ugly game in all three phases.
It wasn't much better in Minnesota. Sure, the offense was better, but Moody missed another field goal, the offensive line allowed another sack, the offense turned the ball over three times, and the team committed five penalties, which all seemed to come at the worst time. And there was also that horrendous call by Steve Wilks right before half that gave up a touchdown.
So the 49ers must clean things up and play better on offense, defense, and special teams. And they need to coach better, as well. You hate to call a game that's this early in the season a must-win, but it's close to being that for the 49ers.
This team is way too good to miss the playoffs, so regardless of what happens in this game, the season is far from over. As long as they reach the postseason, anything can happen. Still, you don't want to spend the month of January on the road, having to play in places like Philadelphia. The Jacksonville Jaguars will be waiting for the 49ers after the bye. And they will be a really tough team to beat on the road. So this game against the Bengals is really important.