Every offseason the San Francisco 49ers quarterback drama dominates the news. It's a regular talking point among national media, with wild takes that stir up the fanbase. They do this because they know that any 49ers QB talk will get a lot of attention. Apparently, the wilder the better, because some crazy things have been said about the San Francisco signal-callers over the past four off-seasons.
Then you add in local beat writers and the many talented 49ers content creators who are all forced to discuss these things because of the national attention, and you have non-stop quarterback talk surrounding this team. If you're tired of hearing about the QBs, you're not alone. We're tired of talking and writing about them, as well.
And while the quarterback position in the NFL is the most important in all professional sports, the 49ers have a specific weapon offense that is just as important, if not more so, to the team's offensive success in 2023—Christian McCaffrey.
From the time McCaffrey joined the 49ers, and had more than a couple of days to prepare for a game, he was a difference-maker. In his first full game with the 49ers, against the Los Angeles Rams, McCaffrey had 94 yards rushing, 55 yards receiving, and scored two touchdowns. He also threw a 34-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Aiyuk.
McCaffrey made 10 starts for the 49ers in the 2022 regular season and averaged 114 yards from scrimmage. But that's only part of the story. Before McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense averaged 20.7 points per game (20th in the NFL). With McCaffrey, the offense scored 30.5 points per game (2nd in the NFL), including the postseason. So the team scored 10 points more each game with the star running back than they did without him.
That's very similar to Brock Purdy's impact on the 49ers offense. Before Purdy, the 49ers' offense scored 21 points per game. With Purdy, they scored 32 points per game (not including the playoffs).
So what makes McCaffrey so valuable to the 49ers?
1. He makes the running game better
Elijah Mitchell is a talented running back. But he's injured a lot. Jordan Mason has a lot of potential, and I'm still excited to see what Ty Davis-Price can do. But none of those guys brings what McCaffrey brings to a running game.
McCaffrey rushed for 746 yards in only 11 games for the 49ers. He's not really the short-yardage back that the others are, but he's great for Kyle Shanahan's scheme, and is better than expected in short yardage situations. McCaffrey rushed for over 1000 yards last season, including his time in Carolina.
Without McCaffrey, the 49ers rushed for 124 yards per game (4.5 per rushing attempt). With McCaffrey, the team rushed for 152 yards per game in the regular season. If you include the postseason, McCaffrey helped raise the 49ers average rushing attempt from 4.5 to 4.8. That was good enough to take the rushing attack from 16th to 7th overall.
I know it's obvious, but a star running back makes a running game better.
2. He makes the passing game better
Last year, McCaffrey had 464 yards receiving for the 49ers (741 total for the season). It's not quite the 1000/1000 season he had a few years back, but that's only happened three times in NFL history, so it's not like it's a normal thing. The 49ers averaged 216 yards through the air without McCaffrey, and 222 with him (excluding the postseason). That's not much of an improvement statistically, but he made a difference in the passing game, even when he didn't touch the ball.
McCaffrey is just as impactful to the offense when he doesn't have the ball because the defense has to keep their eyes on him. And when you add someone like Deebo Samuel to the mix, McCaffrey's presence creates a great dilemma for defensive coordinators. Who do you focus on? Before McCaffrey, that was an easy question—you focus on Samuel. But with McCaffrey, you can't focus on someone else, because McCaffrey is one of the NFL's brightest stars. So when defenses zero in on him, it opens things up for others.
Hall of Fame QB, Joe Montana, talked about how Roger Craig impacted the 49ers' passing game in the '80s, saying, "We could not only throw him the ball out of the backfield, but we could also line him wide. And we could do it without making any substitutions. The defense wouldn't have the chance to substitute, so we'd have a mismatch."
Shanahan used McCaffrey the same way—out of the backfield, out wide, in the slot. He is a consistent mismatch for the opposing defense.
3. He keeps drives alive
An offense that can keep drives alive makes life easier for its QBs, as well as its defense.
On 3rd down, McCaffery averaged 5.9 yards rushing, and 6.9 yards receiving last season. If you break it down further, McCaffrey averaged more yards per carry and per catch than the team's down and distance last year, under 10 yards. Meaning, if it was 3rd and 1 to 3 yards, he averaged 5.6 yards on the ground, and 5.3 as a receiver. If it was 3rd and 4 to 6, McCaffrey rushed for an average of 8.3 and had 6.9 as a receiver. On 3rd down and 7 to 9 yards to go, he rushed for 9 yards per carry and had 8.3 yards per catch.
In other words, McCaffrey was a first-down machine last year when the team was faced with a 3rd down. And for a team with young quarterbacks, this is something that can't be overlooked. Before McCaffrey, the 49ers converted their 3rd down attempts 41% of the time. With McCaffrey, not including the Kansas City game, the 49ers converted on 3rd down 46% of the time.
That may not seem like a huge jump, but 5% better on 3rd down is bigger than what you might think. For example, the Buffalo Bills had the best 3rd down conversion rate in the league at 50.2%, followed by Kansas City (48.9%), Philadelphia (47.6%), and Cincinnati (46.1%). The Cowboys (45.2%) and 49ers (45.1%) were the next two. Notice that only 5% separated the 49ers at number six and Buffalo at number one.
The pre-McCaffrey 49ers, with their 41% 3rd down conversion rate, would have ranked about 13th, just ahead of the Bears. The 49ers' 46% rating, with McCaffrey, would have placed them 5th, just ahead of Dallas. Again, it's not huge when you simply look at numbers. But when the rate goes up, the offense stays on the field longer. That means more points scored and more rest for the defense.
Having an option like McCaffrey to dump the ball off to is a huge advantage. Bill Walsh used Craig, and to a lesser degree, Tom Rathman in the same way. Until he had McCaffrey, Shanahan had not used the 49ers running backs like this. He finally got the running back he needed. And it made a huge difference.
I realize quarterback will always be the most important position in the NFL, but where would the 49ers' offense be without Christian McCaffrey?
Comments