The San Francisco 49ers lost their starting quarterback but didn't miss a beat, with the last player picked in the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy, stepping in confidently to help San Francisco to a 33-17 win over the Miami Dolphins, the 5th straight win and 3rd straight cover for the Niners. Mr. Irrelevant (the title usually given to the last pick in the draft) will make his first NFL start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14 at Levi's, opposite Serra High School grad Tom Brady returning home to the Bay after an improbable win on Monday night. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday December 11th, 2022 at 1:25 p.m. PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -3.5, o/u 37.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked impotent on offense for most of the game, and were down 3-16 with 4 minutes left to play, when the GOAT did what GOATs do by proceeding to mount his 44th career 4th quarter comeback, capped off with a last second touchdown pass to Rachaad White to complete the 17-16 win over the New Orleans Saints.
After thirteen weeks, Tampa Bay ranks 13th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 4.0 percent, 16th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 2.0 percent with a 9th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 20.9 and 30th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -20.0 percent. The Buccaneers defense is rated 10th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -4.0 percent with a 8th rated defensive pass DVOA at -5.0 percent and 10th rated defensive rush DVOA at -13.1 percent.
Tom Brady is 8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 772 and 20th in total QBR at 52.2 with 16 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions, 1 fumble lost and a 66.6 completion percentage. Tampa's offensive line is 24th in run blocking with 4.14 adjusted line yards and 1st in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 3.7 percent. The Bucs' defensive line is 7th against the run with 4.04 adjusted line yards and 3rd with an adjusted sack rate of 9.6 percent.
The Bucs are 3-8-1 ATS and 2-10 to the over/under. Tampa Bay is 0-5 to the over/under after a win and 0-5 to the over/under as the away team. Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards and tight end Cameron Brate are questionable, tackle Tristan Wirfs and guard Luke Goedeke are out for Week 14.
San Francisco 49ers
After Jimmy Garoppolo went out with a foot injury on San Francisco's first drive of the game, Brock Purdy completed 25 of 37 passes for 210 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, but was also sacked 3 times. The 49ers defense made life miserable for Tua Tagovailoa, with Nick Bosa sacking him 3 times, including a strip-sack returned for a touchdown by Dre Greenlaw, and intercepting him twice and intercepting Skylar Thompson once.
After thirteen weeks, San Francisco ranks 4th in total weighted DVOA at 24.0 percent, 12th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 8.5 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 24.4 percent and 22nd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.7 percent. The 49er defense is rated 3rd in total weighted defensive DVOA at -14.8 percent with a 6th rated defensive pass DVOA at -9.1 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -24.6 percent.
San Francisco's offensive line is 9th in run blocking with 4.58 adjusted line yards and 13th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.4 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.58 adjusted line yards and 8th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.1 percent.
The 49ers are 7-5 ATS and 5-7 to the over/under. The Niners are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite, 0-2 to the over/under with a rest advantage and 1-4 to the over/under as a home favorite. Guard Spencer Burford, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway and defensive end Nick Bosa are questionable for Week 14.
Prediction
To the casual observer, this Week 14 match up pitting arguably the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady against the very last pick in the 2022 NFL draft, a rookie making his first NFL start, would appear to be a mismatch in favor of the veteran with all of the accolades. But with all due respect to Jimmy Garoppolo, he was a proficient game manager who benefitted from Kyle Shanahan's schemes and offensive weapons around him, and with Brock Purdy being a four-year starter in college who has earned the trust and confidence of his teammates, we do not anticipate a substantial drop off with Purdy under center, though the offense may struggle a bit and he is likely to make his fair share of errors due to lack of experience.
Brandon Aiyuk in an interview with "Airing It Out" said that Brock Purdy told him this about his missed throw on the sideline:
"I missed you on the field. That's on me. I'm going to get better. I'm going to feed you."
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) December 6, 2022
Without a huge drop off at quarterback going from Garoppolo to Purdy, San Francisco is a much better team on paper then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on both sides of the ball, and with Tristan Wirfs out for this game and Tampa Bay's offense being anemic for most of the season and coming off of a short week and hard-fought, last second win within the division, we would lay the points with the Niners if picking a side.
The Buccaneers defense has been the team's most effective unit and kept them in most games, and their 8th ranked pass defense will likely be licking their chops at the thought of taking on and sacking a rookie quarterback. Knowing that, Kyle Shanahan is unlikely to gamble and will call a conservative game plan that may lead to less explosive plays. And with San Francisco featuring an elite run defense and Tampa rolling out a putrid run offense and more vulnerable offensive line, we expect a low scoring game, barring defensive touchdowns or accumulation of scores off of turnovers.
Tampa Bay has been slow out of the gate in away games this season, going 1-3-1 straight up in the first half so far, and given Kyle Shanahan's propensity for effective game scripting to start games, we also like the 49ers in the first half (-165).
In its wins this season, San Francisco has allowed 7, 9, 15, 14, 16, 10, 0 and 17 points, including what now appears to be a fluke touchdown on the first play of the game, a 75 yard pass to Trent Sherfield, to help one of the league's top offenses in Miami accumulate 17 points in a loss last week. With Tampa Bay consistently struggling to move the ball, how will they score more than 17 against a Niner defense that appears to be peaking?
Pick: Under 37.5
Bonus Pick#1: 49ers -3.5 (FG)
Bonus Pick#2: 49ers 1H ML (-165)
Bonus Pick#3: Tampa Bay team total under 16.5 (-105)
2022 Season ATS: 7-8