Podcast: 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship Preview →
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Should the 49ers be 8-point favorites over the Cardinals in Mexico City? Week 11, 2022 odds and pick

Nov 16, 2022 at 2:28 PM--

The San Francisco 49ers talented offense was middling but serviceable enough to edge the depleted Los Angeles Chargers by a score of 22-16 on Sunday night football in Week 10. The Niners will compete in another prime time slot when they travel to Mexico City to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night football in week 11. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

  • When: Monday November 21st, 2022 at 5:15pm PT (ESPN)
  • Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico
  • Line: 49ers -8, o/u 43.5

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals were able to go into Los Angeles and handle a broken Rams squad to the tune of 27-17, behind a mistake-free, 26-37 for 238 yards and 1 TD performance by Colt McCoy, 2 rushing TDs from James Connor and 10 catches and 98 receiving yards from DeAndre Hopkins.

After ten weeks, Arizona ranks 29th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -21.3 percent, 29th in total weighted offensive DVOA at -15.7 percent with a 29th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -8.8 percent and 27th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -13.8 percent. The Cardinals defense is rated 20th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 2.1 percent with a 19th rated defensive pass DVOA at 8.2 percent and 16th rated defensive rush DVOA at -4.5 percent.

Kyler Murray is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 22 and 23rd in total QBR at 47.0 with 12 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, 0 fumbles lost and a 67.4 completion percentage. Arizona's offensive line is 25th in run blocking with 4.20 adjusted line yards and 18th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent. The Cardinals' defensive line is 21st against the run with 4.58 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.5 percent.

The Cardinals are 5-5 ATS and 5-4-1 to the over/under. Cardinals games have gone over the total in four straight contests, are 2-1-1 to the over/under as an away underdog, and they are 4-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-1 ATS as an away underdog. Quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Kyler Murray, offensive linemen Max Garcia and D. J. Humphries, cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. and kicker Matt Prater are questionable, and tight end Zach Ertz is out for Week 11.

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners were able to control their Week 10 game behind 89 yards on 18 carries from Elijah Mitchell and 38 yards and a rushing TD on 14 carries from Christian McCaffrey, with Brandon Aiyuk tallying 6 receptions for 84 yards and Jimmy Garoppolo completing 19 of 28 passes for 240 yards.

After ten weeks, San Francisco ranks 11th in weighted total DVOA at 9.9 percent, 11th in weighted offensive DVOA at 5.5 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 23.3 percent and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.9 percent. The 49er defense is rated 9th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -6.4 percent with a 10th rated defensive pass DVOA at -2.9 percent and 3rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -18.4 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 7th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 603 and 20th in total QBR at 48.2 with 11 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.1 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 15th in run blocking with 4.51 adjusted line yards and 15th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.0 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.69 adjusted line yards and 6th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.8 percent.

The 49ers are 4-5 ATS and 3-6 to the over/under. The Niners are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under after a win, and 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under as an away favorite. Wide receiver Danny Gray and defensive lineman Samson Ebukam are questionable, and defensive lineman Arik Armstead is out for Week 11.


Sure, the Niners are significantly more talented on paper than this broken Cardinals team with two hobbled quarterbacks, but eight points is entirely too many to lay in a divisional match up that has seen Arizona go 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 contests and winning 11 of the last 14 meetings straight up, including a game won by the score of 31-17 with Colt McCoy as a 5.5 point underdog last season.
Say what you want about Kliff Kingsbury but he is the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning record as an underdog and losing record as a favorite and with a significant portion of those underdog wins coming against San Francisco, we see the betting value in taking the points in Mexico City.

Pick: Cardinals +8

2022 Season ATS: 4-6

Related News


  • What is your best bet for 49ers at Cardinals on 11/21/22?
  • 49ers -8
  • Over 43.5
  • Under 43.5
  • Cardinals +8
  • 232 votes
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


Facebook Comments

More San Francisco 49ers News

San Francisco 49ers are 2.5-point dogs at the Philadelphia Eagles - 2023 NFC Championship odds and pick

By Winston Chung
Jan 23

The San Francisco 49ers may have prioritized game management and not won style points in grinding to a 19-12 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round, but kept its winning streak alive to advance to the conference championship. The Niners will be underdogs for the first time since Week 8 when they travel to the east coast to take on the number one seeded Philadelphia Eagles to decide who will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday, January 29th, 2023 at 12:00pm PT (FOX) Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Line: 49ers +2.5 (-105), o/u 45.5 Philadelphia Eagles The Philadelphia Eagles laid waste to an

49ers hosting the Cowboys, favored by 3.5 points - 2023 Divisional playoff betting odds and pick

By Winston Chung
Jan 17

The San Francisco 49ers and Brock Purdy started a bit slowly but turned on the burners in the second half to smother and cover against the Seattle Seahawks by the score of 41-23. The Niners will rekindle a classic NFC playoff rivalry when they welcome the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional playoff round. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday January 22nd at 3:30pm PT (FOX) Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California Line: 49ers -3.5, o/u 46.5 Dallas Cowboys The Dallas Cowboys proved that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are who we they thought they were, with the Cowboys defense making Tom Brady look 45 years old and sure that an awakening of the dormant corpse of a Bucs offense would not

George Kittle's big-time catch: The turning point for the 49ers against the Cowboys

By Rohan Chakravarthi
Jan 22

The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Dallas Cowboys in a close game, winning to the score of 19-12 after their defense created multiple stops at the end of the game. The game was tight for the entire 60 minutes, with a Brett Maher field goal tying the score at 9-9 with 9:06 remaining in the third quarter. For the remainder of the quarter, neither team gained much offensive momentum, but one play ultimately turned the ship for the 49ers, leading them to a touchdown that occurred to begin the 4th quarter: a Brock Purdy to George Kittle dime from an off-schedule play. Purdy had initially faked a handoff before rolling to his left, but to his dismay, both of San Francisco's top reads on the play, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were

Nick Bosa voted the 2022 49ers Webzone MVP by fans

By David Bonilla
Jan 25

Every year, we poll 49ers Webzone fans to determine the San Francisco 49ers' most valuable player in the eyes of The Faithful. This season's MVP was probably clear even before the voting started. Although, there was a chance that Christian McCaffrey, the star running back acquired from the Carolina Panthers ahead of the trade deadline, could steal away a significant number of the votes, and he did. Still, defensive end Nick Bosa's dominant 2022 campaign was enough to solidify his lead among 49ers teammates. The star pass rusher earned over 43 percent of the fans from fans. McCaffrey came in second with nearly 29 percent of the votes, while rookie quarterback Brock Purdy earned almost 21 percent. Our fans have chosen an MVP


Trending News

Share 49ersWebzone