Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports


Should the 49ers be 8-point favorites over the Cardinals in Mexico City? Week 11, 2022 odds and pick

Nov 16, 2022 at 2:28 PM--


The San Francisco 49ers talented offense was middling but serviceable enough to edge the depleted Los Angeles Chargers by a score of 22-16 on Sunday night football in Week 10. The Niners will compete in another prime time slot when they travel to Mexico City to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night football in week 11. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

  • When: Monday November 21st, 2022 at 5:15pm PT (ESPN)
  • Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico
  • Line: 49ers -8, o/u 43.5

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals were able to go into Los Angeles and handle a broken Rams squad to the tune of 27-17, behind a mistake-free, 26-37 for 238 yards and 1 TD performance by Colt McCoy, 2 rushing TDs from James Connor and 10 catches and 98 receiving yards from DeAndre Hopkins.

After ten weeks, Arizona ranks 29th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -21.3 percent, 29th in total weighted offensive DVOA at -15.7 percent with a 29th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -8.8 percent and 27th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -13.8 percent. The Cardinals defense is rated 20th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 2.1 percent with a 19th rated defensive pass DVOA at 8.2 percent and 16th rated defensive rush DVOA at -4.5 percent.

Kyler Murray is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 22 and 23rd in total QBR at 47.0 with 12 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, 0 fumbles lost and a 67.4 completion percentage. Arizona's offensive line is 25th in run blocking with 4.20 adjusted line yards and 18th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent. The Cardinals' defensive line is 21st against the run with 4.58 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.5 percent.

The Cardinals are 5-5 ATS and 5-4-1 to the over/under. Cardinals games have gone over the total in four straight contests, are 2-1-1 to the over/under as an away underdog, and they are 4-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-1 ATS as an away underdog. Quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Kyler Murray, offensive linemen Max Garcia and D. J. Humphries, cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. and kicker Matt Prater are questionable, and tight end Zach Ertz is out for Week 11.

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners were able to control their Week 10 game behind 89 yards on 18 carries from Elijah Mitchell and 38 yards and a rushing TD on 14 carries from Christian McCaffrey, with Brandon Aiyuk tallying 6 receptions for 84 yards and Jimmy Garoppolo completing 19 of 28 passes for 240 yards.

After ten weeks, San Francisco ranks 11th in weighted total DVOA at 9.9 percent, 11th in weighted offensive DVOA at 5.5 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 23.3 percent and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.9 percent. The 49er defense is rated 9th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -6.4 percent with a 10th rated defensive pass DVOA at -2.9 percent and 3rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -18.4 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 7th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 603 and 20th in total QBR at 48.2 with 11 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.1 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 15th in run blocking with 4.51 adjusted line yards and 15th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.0 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.69 adjusted line yards and 6th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.8 percent.

The 49ers are 4-5 ATS and 3-6 to the over/under. The Niners are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under after a win, and 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under as an away favorite. Wide receiver Danny Gray and defensive lineman Samson Ebukam are questionable, and defensive lineman Arik Armstead is out for Week 11.

Prediction

Sure, the Niners are significantly more talented on paper than this broken Cardinals team with two hobbled quarterbacks, but eight points is entirely too many to lay in a divisional match up that has seen Arizona go 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 contests and winning 11 of the last 14 meetings straight up, including a game won by the score of 31-17 with Colt McCoy as a 5.5 point underdog last season.
Say what you want about Kliff Kingsbury but he is the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning record as an underdog and losing record as a favorite and with a significant portion of those underdog wins coming against San Francisco, we see the betting value in taking the points in Mexico City.

Pick: Cardinals +8

2022 Season ATS: 4-6

Related News




Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers at Cardinals on 11/21/22?
  • 49ers -8
  • Cardinals +8
  • Over 43.5
  • Under 43.5
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
Nobody's perfect. Did you find a mistake in this article?
Report it.



LISTEN

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



49ers, Shanahan favored by 4 pts vs. Dolphins, McDaniel - Week 13, 2022 odds and pick

By Winston Chung
Nov 29

The San Francisco 49ers offense came out a bit flat after playing at elevation but the defense ensured it would not matter in a 13-0 shut out of the New Orleans Saints in Week 12. Now long-time associates turned opponents will lead their respective first place teams in the most anticipated match up of NFL Week 13, when Mike McDaniel returns to the Bay with the Miami Dolphins to take on the Niners and Kyle Shanahan at Levi's Stadium. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday December 4, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. PT (FOX) Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California Line: 49ers -4, o/u 46.5 Miami Dolphins The Miami Dolphins took care of business against the Houston Texans, racing out to a 30-0



5 Keys to a 49ers Win Over the Dolphins in Week 13

By Wayne P. Brown
Dec 3

The time is here. It's the apprentice versus the master in the Sunday matchup, Dolphins versus the 49ers. Both teams have several similarities on offense and defense. The Miami Dolphins look to go on a six-game win streak, and the San Francisco 49ers look to win their fifth straight. If the 49ers want to improve to 8-4, the team must commit to the following keys to victory. Be PHYSICAL The 49ers must bring physicality to all three phases of the game. On special teams, the gunners should prevent the opposing team from any significant gains. Expect Robbie Gould's kicks to be



'Third and Jauan': 49ers WR Jennings steps up again in the clutch during win over Saints

By Kirk Larrabee
Nov 27

49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings has had a quieter year statistically than some may have expected, considering where he was at the end of the 2021 season. But just as he did in 2021, Jennings stepped up in the clutch Sunday, giving the 49ers multiple huge plays while helping them secure a 13-0 win over the New Orleans Saints. After catching 16 passes for 212 yards and three touchdowns over the final five games of the 2021 regular season, Jennings entered this weekend with 30 catches for 220 yards and zero touchdowns for 2022. But on Sunday he caught six passes for 49 yards while hauling in the game's only touchdown. Jennings also made a key third down catch on the game's final drive that helped run out the clock and seal the win. Jennings' clutch performance on



Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins calls 49ers CB Charvarius Ward's post-game comments "laughable"

By David Bonilla
Nov 25

Following Monday night's game against the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City, San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward had some harsh comments about wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. "He was getting locked up. He was doing some dirty things," Ward said after the game. "He tried to clip me, he grabbed me by the throat. He grabbed my facemask on one play, so I don't respect his game. That's steroid boy." That last part is a jab regarding Hopkins' earlier six-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Hopkins spoke with reporters on Friday and had an opportunity to respond to Ward's


Featured

Trending News

Share 49ersWebzone